First half of February looks excellent with less intense cold next week and good storm potential thereafter.

 We have a nice little visit form the polar vortex late this week. The feature is actually expected to weaken and then drop over the eastern Great Lakes on Friday and then help to spin up a weather feature for the weekend. More on that in a bit. The cold weather in Vermont peaked last weekend but will remain very chilly with wind for the rest of the week and the weekend. Temperatures will start out each of the next three days (Wednesday, Thursday and Friday) a shade below zero and rise to the 5-10 degree range on the mountain (15 in the valley) Wednesday and Thursday and then only 0-5 on Friday. The wind is expected to create a material chill factor during the whole period blowing 10-20 mph. Snowfall will be limited to flurries for the rest of the week. 

The weekend weather map sure is interesting. The PV feature I mentioned will spin up a strong area of low pressure that is expected to deliver parts of eastern North Carolina and even  Cape Hatteras an unusual snowfall. This type of setup, especially with the polar jet weakening, can mean that a storm like this can move up the coast and be a big snow producer for the northeast. There are models that are showing this to an extent, but I am feeling increasingly confident the effects of this will miss Vermont (except for the wind). The storm probably stays offshore following the North  Carolina hit and this will mean a weekend featuring sun, wind and moderating daytime temperatures that actually might make the teens both days. It's worth keeping an eye on though I do consider this the most likely outcome. 

We haven't had a chance to discuss February weather too much with the short term and wintry weather situation consuming much of our attention. In short the first half of the month looks excellent. The storminess in the Pacific is never fully going to eliminate the negative EPO which has largely powered this exceptional winter we've had so far. With the PV expected to weaken and move south this weekend, the cold will relent somewhat, but the east coast and especially New England is expected to remain cold. Can we make use of that cold and produce some snowfall ? Possibly, though that appears more likely as the week progresses and not on Monday and Tuesday, the 2nd and third of the month. 

The 2nd full week of February looks interesting. The jet in the Pacific remains supportive while a blocking mechanism develops in the jet stream over the Davis Strait and becomes one of the dominant features for the entire Northern Hemisphere. I get the sense that this is not a setup that will necessarily produce an arctic outbreak and rather a rather multiple stormy scenarios for many places including us. Best of all, the risk of a thaw appears quite low and we wouldn't want one of those disrupting the excellent run we've been on.