and with it comes a drastic sharpening of the north to south temperature gradient across the United States and a baraclinic area stretching from the Ohio Valley to the northeast early this week. With this comes a significant weather system that start as a disorganized storm in the Midwest early this week but with a big injection of moisture from the Atlantic will evolve into a major precipitation producer across much of New England. This is a very different type of storm than what we have seen this year and much more typical of a storm one might expect in a strong La Nina year such as this one. As mentioned a few days ago, the region will have to survive a tremendous push of mid-level warmth. Temperature cross sections reveal that it might be a tough go, for a time as precipitation is likely to start as a sleet or freezing rain mixture. As the storm over the Atlantic coast continues to push northeast, move over the cape and deepen, precipitation will become heavier and consequently we should see just enough cooling at these critical layers of the atmosphere to see freezing rain and sleet change to snow. It is so close right now it really could go either way, the level of warmth at these middle layers is a few thousand feet thick and temperatures in this layer will only be about 34 so just a slight shift in this progression and we could be all snow.
Precipitation should begin as snow in the midday hours Tuesday and this icy mix, if it does occur will take place in the evening or overnight hours and then we should see another additional period of snow Wednesday morning before everything tapers off. I am going to say about 6-10 inches of snow sleet and some freezing rain right now. My computer is about to run out of batteries so I will expand on the post later to discuss another possible storm later in the week and what still appears to be a favorable pattern lasting into next week.
Sunday, January 16, 2011
Friday, January 14, 2011
Snow machine kicking into high gear as pattern finally bears fruit
New England bomb over-performed, we got unexpected terrain induced powder and we got a nice little clipper that should freshen things up for Sunday. This particular system in a figurative sense, will be a bit too frivolous dealing snow to the Great Lakes region and its moisture will be limited somewhat. The high country of New England can usually do a pretty good job of squeezing out any remaining juice out of almost any clipper and this is no exception. Snow should begin Saturday evening and a very fluffy 4-8 inches should await us Sunday at first tracks time. Temperatures will be chilly relative to what we have seen. Saturday is a little colder temperature wise, particularly in the morning but blustery conditions Sunday will make the back end of the weekend feel colder. Temps on MLK day morning will be the coldest of the season so far with readings close to -10 in the morning.
One of the more interesting systems of the year in terms of impact at MRG will soon take over the discussion for early next week. This storm looks a lot like like a classic La Nina event. Very cold weather will be in place across interior New England but the region will have to hold off a tremendous push of mild weather the middle layers of the troposphere to keep precipitation in the form of snow and it won't be easy. Still a healthy zone of overrunning is what the area needs for a big storm so the potential is there. Model data is disagreeing with the particulars with the American model showing a 6-10 inch snow event during the day Tuesday while the European suggests a change to sleet and freezing rain at some point. A little sleet could be of some use to us as it would "lock up" a base which is starting to build up nicely with all the recent snow.
Colder weather will follow later in the week where a more garden variety snow producing system could be in the cards Thursday or Friday. So if we can get through some of this early week adversity, the skiing could be really fantastic by later next week. Some of the coldest weather of the season might have to be endured as temperatures could struggle to get above 5 on the mountain by the time next weekend rolls around but speaking for myself I can suffer through it to float on a little fresh powder. The following week also looks encouraging. We will lose the NAO and the pattern will get driven more by a slightly positive PNA and slightly negative NAO. Overall this will keep temperatures below normal across New England but at the same time shift the storm track a little farther to the north so we should see at least 1 or 2 weather systems track in our direction. Overall we should see a dramatic tightening of the temperature gradient across the nation which is much more consistent with a La Nina winter and should mean a lot of interesting weather to talk about. Enjoy the powder but never stop thinking snow !!
One of the more interesting systems of the year in terms of impact at MRG will soon take over the discussion for early next week. This storm looks a lot like like a classic La Nina event. Very cold weather will be in place across interior New England but the region will have to hold off a tremendous push of mild weather the middle layers of the troposphere to keep precipitation in the form of snow and it won't be easy. Still a healthy zone of overrunning is what the area needs for a big storm so the potential is there. Model data is disagreeing with the particulars with the American model showing a 6-10 inch snow event during the day Tuesday while the European suggests a change to sleet and freezing rain at some point. A little sleet could be of some use to us as it would "lock up" a base which is starting to build up nicely with all the recent snow.
Colder weather will follow later in the week where a more garden variety snow producing system could be in the cards Thursday or Friday. So if we can get through some of this early week adversity, the skiing could be really fantastic by later next week. Some of the coldest weather of the season might have to be endured as temperatures could struggle to get above 5 on the mountain by the time next weekend rolls around but speaking for myself I can suffer through it to float on a little fresh powder. The following week also looks encouraging. We will lose the NAO and the pattern will get driven more by a slightly positive PNA and slightly negative NAO. Overall this will keep temperatures below normal across New England but at the same time shift the storm track a little farther to the north so we should see at least 1 or 2 weather systems track in our direction. Overall we should see a dramatic tightening of the temperature gradient across the nation which is much more consistent with a La Nina winter and should mean a lot of interesting weather to talk about. Enjoy the powder but never stop thinking snow !!
Monday, January 10, 2011
Eastern Mass slammed with another 1-2 feet while MRG settles for 5-10
A once very disorganized storm system with one center near the Atlantic Coast and another crossing the Mississippi Valley will converge and subsequently explode off the New Jersey coast. The bombing has forecasters scrambling to catch up since this storm system only a few days ago looked as though it may take a very innocent track into the Atlantic Ocean. Now it appears the storm responsible for the ice and snow over Georgia and the Carolina's will deepen by at least while swallowing its counterpart to the west. An area of light to moderate snow which will impact the Mid Atlantic Tuesday night will become heavy snow over southern New England Wednesday. Light to moderate snow will also make its way into Vermont and reach General Stark around daybreak accumulating perhaps an inch or so by first tracks time. The snow will continue through much of the day before tapering to flurries in the evening. The snow will be of the cold, low density and fluffy variety allowing for the 5-10 inches although a slight shift in the storm track north or south could cause snow totals to be over or under that range.
It may be frustrating to watch the folks in Massachusetts steal our epic snow, but we do have at least two systems over the next week that have a great chance of bearing fruit after Wednesday. After a mostly dry Thursday and Friday, a clipper system will approach from the Great Lakes and spread snow into interior New England late Saturday or early Sunday. The snow from this system might not amount to much but the weakening system will lay the groundwork for a baraclinic or overrunning area to establish itself across the region. This is a very typical looking set up in a La Nina year but glaringly absent this year. If we can get things to go according to plan there will be a zone within this overrunning area that receives periods of light to moderate snow over a several day period. In this case the Sunday to Tuesday time frame could be such a period and a very good one for skiing hopefully.
It may be frustrating to watch the folks in Massachusetts steal our epic snow, but we do have at least two systems over the next week that have a great chance of bearing fruit after Wednesday. After a mostly dry Thursday and Friday, a clipper system will approach from the Great Lakes and spread snow into interior New England late Saturday or early Sunday. The snow from this system might not amount to much but the weakening system will lay the groundwork for a baraclinic or overrunning area to establish itself across the region. This is a very typical looking set up in a La Nina year but glaringly absent this year. If we can get things to go according to plan there will be a zone within this overrunning area that receives periods of light to moderate snow over a several day period. In this case the Sunday to Tuesday time frame could be such a period and a very good one for skiing hopefully.
Sunday, January 9, 2011
Much snowier forecast for Tuesday night into Wendesday
Perhaps the SCWB should downplay every storm in hopes of increasing the chances for snow at MRG because it hasn't been the first time a storm was almost entirely written off only to deliver the goods. It certainly justifies a discussion on every passing storm, even the misses, because in spite of the advances in numerical weather prediction, mother nature never stops throwing curve balls. The two-pronged system mentioned in the last post will wreck some serious havoc as it passes into the southern plains. One piece will move into the southeast and cause icing problems across Georgia and the Carolinas Monday, while the other causes moderate to heavy snow across a broad area of Oklahoma, Kansas and Missouri. The storms disorganized look has certainly kept the skeptics and cynics in business. This surface low in the southeast was expected to move innocently out over the Atlantic leaving the second piece of energy to get torn to pieces by what appeared to be the prevailing influence of the polar jet. Perhaps its influence will not be so prevailing however as the plains low pressure area is now indicated to hold its own and ultimately catch the Atlantic Coast low. It will be a faced paced evolution leaving little time for the storm to become anything historic, but the system will nonetheless strengthen south of Long Island and an area of snow should be allowed to progress north and cover most of the state of Vermont Tuesday night into Wednesday. For now lets keep expectations in the 5-10 inch category, but a stronger storm with a track farther to the north is capable of delivering even more.
On the back of this aforementioned good news is a promising forecast for the weekend. The pattern will be undergoing some changes and the initial results appear to be quite good. Floods in California and cold weather across the southeast have many weather guru's wondering about the influence of the La Nina this year. Indeed it has actually weakened somewhat, barely maintaining its "moderate" stature. This being said, the pattern by next weekend will begin to take on a more classic La Nina look, consisting of cold weather across central and western Canada, drier weather in California and a sharper north to south temperature gradient across eastern third of the country. This should mean weather in our neighborhood and this should include two fast moving systems, the first of which should deliver some snow Saturday the 15th with another possible snow event early next week. Some very intense arctic air will also be on the playing field although its impact should mostly be felt across Canada states immediately bordering Canada across the Great Lakes and Northeast.
The bad news is relegated to the distant future where ensembles show a trend toward milder temperatures beginning around the 20th of the month. The actual weather that verifies in this time frame remains to be seen but a negative PNA and a nearly neutral AO will certainly chip away at our favorability index.
On the back of this aforementioned good news is a promising forecast for the weekend. The pattern will be undergoing some changes and the initial results appear to be quite good. Floods in California and cold weather across the southeast have many weather guru's wondering about the influence of the La Nina this year. Indeed it has actually weakened somewhat, barely maintaining its "moderate" stature. This being said, the pattern by next weekend will begin to take on a more classic La Nina look, consisting of cold weather across central and western Canada, drier weather in California and a sharper north to south temperature gradient across eastern third of the country. This should mean weather in our neighborhood and this should include two fast moving systems, the first of which should deliver some snow Saturday the 15th with another possible snow event early next week. Some very intense arctic air will also be on the playing field although its impact should mostly be felt across Canada states immediately bordering Canada across the Great Lakes and Northeast.
The bad news is relegated to the distant future where ensembles show a trend toward milder temperatures beginning around the 20th of the month. The actual weather that verifies in this time frame remains to be seen but a negative PNA and a nearly neutral AO will certainly chip away at our favorability index.
Friday, January 7, 2011
8-16 inches this weekend but a drier forecast for next weekend
No big storm this weekend but a pool of relatively (or conditionally) unstable air combined with a deep pool of moist air should serve us well for the weekend. The region will get impacted by a collection of very disorganized disturbances but the above mentioned dynamics are supportive for snow and even the benign weather feature should be able to ring several inches of snow out of the atmosphere, at least over the high country. We should see some light snow Friday night and then some occasionally moderate snow throughout the day Saturday. 1-3 inches by first tracks time Saturday but the upwards of 6 during the day Saturday and additional snows Saturday night. Snow should continue into Saturday night and continue as some occasional albeit lighter snow showers Sunday.
The weather picture for next week consists of a very strong high pressure center containing relatively cold arctic air although not record breaking. At the surface it will be the prevailing feature next week with a very broad influence over the United States. It will thus be cold in a lot of places, especially Texas which should see much below normal temperatures for a good chunk of the week. As mentioned in the previous post, there is a storm in the southern Rockies that seems intent on moving east in two disorganized pieces. Its failure to phase into a single stronger storm and the broad and dominant influence being exerted by the high pressure center to the north is likely going to prevent this potentially potent weather system from developing into anything of too much interest to us. The weather as a result will likely be pretty dry next week with the exception of flurries Monday and Tuesday. Temperatures across much of the country will be below normal but New England temps will be close to normal.
The main driver of the pattern beyond a week's time will be a giant block across over Alaska that the various ensembles are handling differently over time. If you believe the GFS ensembles, its more of the status quo with the pattern anchored by two sightly repositioned high latitude blocks and another blast of cold across the United States. The European ensembles allow the block to become so strong that the cold is bottled up across western Canada and has less of an impact on the contiguous United States. The European looks like a classic La Nina like pattern with cold and snow confined to the north while temperatures moderate significantly across the south. I am inclined to believe the latter which although would allow the "favorability index" to be a bit lower than I have indicated here, should allow some weather to track in our direction. We shall see what comes to pass.
The weather picture for next week consists of a very strong high pressure center containing relatively cold arctic air although not record breaking. At the surface it will be the prevailing feature next week with a very broad influence over the United States. It will thus be cold in a lot of places, especially Texas which should see much below normal temperatures for a good chunk of the week. As mentioned in the previous post, there is a storm in the southern Rockies that seems intent on moving east in two disorganized pieces. Its failure to phase into a single stronger storm and the broad and dominant influence being exerted by the high pressure center to the north is likely going to prevent this potentially potent weather system from developing into anything of too much interest to us. The weather as a result will likely be pretty dry next week with the exception of flurries Monday and Tuesday. Temperatures across much of the country will be below normal but New England temps will be close to normal.
The main driver of the pattern beyond a week's time will be a giant block across over Alaska that the various ensembles are handling differently over time. If you believe the GFS ensembles, its more of the status quo with the pattern anchored by two sightly repositioned high latitude blocks and another blast of cold across the United States. The European ensembles allow the block to become so strong that the cold is bottled up across western Canada and has less of an impact on the contiguous United States. The European looks like a classic La Nina like pattern with cold and snow confined to the north while temperatures moderate significantly across the south. I am inclined to believe the latter which although would allow the "favorability index" to be a bit lower than I have indicated here, should allow some weather to track in our direction. We shall see what comes to pass.
Wednesday, January 5, 2011
Cold pattern to bring continuous chances for new snow
The 2nd of two clipper systems this week will cause a big amplification in the jet stream and some excitement for big storm potential. The threat caused a big stir Monday as models took a decisive trend toward another New England bomb Friday and Saturday. Since that time, the consensus of data indicates that the chances for a major storm have diminished but the chances for fresh powder remain. Two jet impulses will be on the weather map this Friday and Saturday. The first will dive southeast out of the eastern Great Lakes and cause an area of snow to enhance across much of New York state, Pennsylvania, New Jersey and southern New England as it interacts with the warmer Atlantic Ocean waters. The second impulse takes a similar route and we had hoped this would prove to be a necessary injection of energy to allow this system to explode as many do across New England. This second impulse will help amplify the trough further but is unlikely to phase with the initial system. The amplication will allow the initial system to get hung up across the Gulf of Maine and ultimately allow its moisture to envelop the high country of both Vermont and New Hampshire by Saturday. Snow should fall at varying rates Friday night through Sunday and could eventually amount to a foot of fresh powder by late Sunday.
Another system we are watching in the early to middle part of next week will track out of the southern Rockies, tap significant amounts of moisture out of the Gulf of Mexico and head northeast from there. The longwave trough axis is actually in a favorable position for this system to actually become a major snow producer for both the eastern Great Lakes and interior New England but models have remained very skiddish on this event and the European has consistently stated its a no go. This will be a period, like many in January, where the polar jet rises to significant prominance across the United States. Such occurances in the past have depressed the storm track and at times even inhibited storm development. Time will tell if this happens in this case but I think this is what the European is hinting at.
Another system we are watching in the early to middle part of next week will track out of the southern Rockies, tap significant amounts of moisture out of the Gulf of Mexico and head northeast from there. The longwave trough axis is actually in a favorable position for this system to actually become a major snow producer for both the eastern Great Lakes and interior New England but models have remained very skiddish on this event and the European has consistently stated its a no go. This will be a period, like many in January, where the polar jet rises to significant prominance across the United States. Such occurances in the past have depressed the storm track and at times even inhibited storm development. Time will tell if this happens in this case but I think this is what the European is hinting at.
Sunday, January 2, 2011
Fresh powder within reach as new blocking pattern emerges
The return to colder weather is not bringing any immediate relief as conditions remain relatively stable. A weak clipper system will approach the region late on Tuesday and bring our first chance for powder. This disturbance might have had more of a chance to be a bigger powder producer but as it passes the region Tuesday night, its energy will get sucked into a storm offshore. Nonetheless, a period of light snow is likely and 3-6 inches between Tuesday night and Wednesday is certainly very welcome. The clipper will also re-enforce the return to colder temperatures as readings will likely fall into the single numbers Wednesday night.
The news gets even better late in the week. It is another clipper system but a far more potent one which may ultimately gather some Atlantic Moisture and turn into a big snow event for parts of Maine. This storm is far from a "lock" at this point but it has 6-12 inch potential Friday as it moves out of the eastern Great Lakes and approaches the Atlantic Coast. This storm, like its predecessor will also allow a re-enforcing shot of cold air to invade for the weekend but the pool of instability in the wake of this system appears a little better and some terrain induced powder could remain on the menu through Saturday. We still have some time for this set-up to fall apart but the ingredients appear right for the 8th and 9th to be a fresh powder weekend. We still have a ways to go to get bases up to ideal levels but it would be a start.
As discussed in the previous few posts, the pattern is evolving into much of what we saw in December. A big eastern Canadian block, and a giant ridge in the Bering sea. The two features will again allow cold weather to prevail across a large percentage of the the eastern United States. The persistence of the "blocking" is quite astounding in a strong La Nina year such as this and although its outcome might not be powdery perfection, we can and have done far far worse. This morning there were some indications that the Bering Sea ridge will take the drivers seat by January 10th and shift the focus of the cold in to the Plains and eastern Rockies. If the pattern were to get overly amplified in such a set-up it could set the stage for another brief thaw between the 12th and 15th of the month. If the pattern stays a little flatter we could get a big weather system out of the whole deal and some additional snow leading into the MLK weekend. Overall I am encouraged and am optimistic about the next two weeks in spite of any concerns.
The news gets even better late in the week. It is another clipper system but a far more potent one which may ultimately gather some Atlantic Moisture and turn into a big snow event for parts of Maine. This storm is far from a "lock" at this point but it has 6-12 inch potential Friday as it moves out of the eastern Great Lakes and approaches the Atlantic Coast. This storm, like its predecessor will also allow a re-enforcing shot of cold air to invade for the weekend but the pool of instability in the wake of this system appears a little better and some terrain induced powder could remain on the menu through Saturday. We still have some time for this set-up to fall apart but the ingredients appear right for the 8th and 9th to be a fresh powder weekend. We still have a ways to go to get bases up to ideal levels but it would be a start.
As discussed in the previous few posts, the pattern is evolving into much of what we saw in December. A big eastern Canadian block, and a giant ridge in the Bering sea. The two features will again allow cold weather to prevail across a large percentage of the the eastern United States. The persistence of the "blocking" is quite astounding in a strong La Nina year such as this and although its outcome might not be powdery perfection, we can and have done far far worse. This morning there were some indications that the Bering Sea ridge will take the drivers seat by January 10th and shift the focus of the cold in to the Plains and eastern Rockies. If the pattern were to get overly amplified in such a set-up it could set the stage for another brief thaw between the 12th and 15th of the month. If the pattern stays a little flatter we could get a big weather system out of the whole deal and some additional snow leading into the MLK weekend. Overall I am encouraged and am optimistic about the next two weeks in spite of any concerns.
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