Still on target for 15-30", just expect some sleet Sunday afternoon before a snowy finish Sunday night into Monday

 Folks, this storm deserves one final update and I think we've been generally on target with our expectations and at this point can just expand on key details. Light snow is expected to develop right around sunset Saturday and continue at a steady pace throughout the night. Modest snowfall rates during the overnight hours will allow 5-8 inches of snow by daybreak Sunday and then we can anticipate a burst of heavy snow from right around when lifts begin to spin until midday. Winds will be cranking at the summit considering the intensity of the storm, blowing out of the east-northeast most of the day. The burst of morning heavy snow will get us to the 8-12 inch accumulation range and then we can expect a period of sleet for several hours during the afternoon. This will remain a cold storm with temperatures generally in the teens on the mountain, rising into the 20's when winds begin to shift Sunday evening. This wind shift will effectively end the sleet and bring another round of fluffier snowfall to MRG and our surrounding mountains. I feel good about the range we have. Most of the simulations aren't snowing a ton of snow on the back end, but the flow looks outstanding coming off Lake Champlain and the mountains should be on the receiving end of some healthy additional snowfall Sunday night into a cold and blustery Monday morning. It won't be a wet snow Sunday given where temperatures are, though it will still be a dense snow made denser by the period of sleet. The consistency of Sunday night snowfall will be fluffier, but high winds will result in lots of drifting on the trails. The high density of the sleet will actually help the drifting from getting too excessive. 15-30 still seems like a good range and its the kind that doesn't melt easy which will serve us well in another month.

Both Monday and Tuesday look to feature some outstanding skiing, just prepare for the elements that will include single digit temperatures and wind gusts up over 40 on the summits. Clouds and lighter snow showers are indicated to continue with sparse sunshine if at all. Winds are a bit lighter, temperatures are a bit less cold, and sunshine more prevalent on Wednesday when our next storm will be gathering in the south. I always love a good Miller-A event and the storm, Thursday Feb 20 appears to be a good one though not quite guaranteed. Coastal areas seem more favored to get the best of this storm as opposed to the interior with areas of Vermont getting a more gentle grazing though things tend to shift in the final days so stay tuned. Temperatures will remain chilly through Feb 23rd but will moderate. Friday should include some wind thanks to the departing storm followed by seasonable temperatures and perhaps some light snow for the last full weekend of February.

We defended well Thursday and now we await the strongest winter storm of the season with 15-30 expected, mostly Sunday

The Mad River Valley played some very clutch defense on Thursday. No, we weren't in the bullseye, but I was getting haunted by some of that high resolution data spitting out a tenth of an inch of freezing rain. In the end, we scored a bit of snow, had a brief period of sleet and then back to a nice midday round of heavy snow and it skied beautifully. Forecast data has inched back in our direction for the Sunday, February 16th and this places us at the southern edge of what should be the best storm of the season. More on that in a bit.  

Decent flow of cold air is set to deposit another 1-3 inches of snow on our mountains Thursday evening setting us up for a wintry, partially bluebird Friday. Temps are mostly in the teens, though winds are expected and could gust to 40 mph at the summits and will certainly bring wind chills well below zero. Saturday's winds will be pretty quiet (enjoy that) and this will allow morning temperatures to be a bit below zero before rising into the teens Saturday afternoon under a thickening blanket of clouds. 

Here we go with our storm. Snow is expected to develop Saturday evening and intensify quickly. We won't need to worry about any complex phasing or coastal redevelopment as a already strong low pressure area is expected to advance into the Ohio Valley Saturday night and eventually evolve into a coastal bomb in the Gulf of Maine (980 mb). This trajectory is pretty solid for us, but the strong area of low pressure is predicted to be close, crossing our longitude somewhere in southern Vermont. This places us in an area where precipitation could mix with or change to sleet or a dry slot could get at us and prevent a 3 foot accumulation. Let's be honest, these are not bad problems to have. We are going to see intense snowfall regardless, especially Saturday night into early Sunday. Any sleet or storm lull would be most likely Sunday morning before more snowfall late in the day Sunday into Sunday night. Going to keep the 15-30 inch snowfall expectation the same. A northward shift could put us us under that, a southward shift places us in the 2-3 feet category. No question this is the most intense winter storm so far this season. 

With any strong storm we can expect wind. This should start becoming a factor Sunday morning blowing from the east or east northeast for much of the ski day. During the evening, we should see winds shift and become westerly. Snow should continue into Sunday night and become lighter snow showers by the ski day Monday. Models are keeping the core of the coldest air to our west now as of some recent model updates and this is somewhat laughable as winds will ferocious both Monday and Tuesday and gusts up past 40 mph at the summit won't have anyone really missing the core of this cold air. Actual temps both Monday and Tuesday on the mountain will be in the single numbers. Winds will then relax a touch for Wednesday and temperatures will moderate some. This potential Miller-A type storm is still a possibility for someone and deserves watching with a possible impact on Thursday. Any storm would then clear for Friday when we can still expect some wind though temperatures will continue to slowly moderate. 

Ridging in western North America continues to be indicated for the last week of February giving us the +PNA structure I mentioned the other day. Most of the simulations continue to show moderating temperatures, but this remains an encouraging sign for what has been an amazing month so far.

Updates on our two storms over the next 5 days and a possible third to watch late next week

Tuesday's clouds are expected to linger into the overnight just enough to prevent an excessively cold Wednesday morning. We then are expecting another interval of February sunshine for Wednesday and not much wind atop the small accumulation of snow. We have eyes on two storms over the next 5 days and a potential third is out there late next week. Can't say I am entirely happy with the trends though it remains a pretty good forecast for northern Vermont overall. 

Storm number 1 appears to be a real head scratcher for me. Sure we are still competing with a pesky southeast ridge though arctic air has proven strong enough to overwhelm this feature and provide Washington, DC with several inches of snow which is highly unusual in this jet stream. The next wave of low pressure is expected to proceed through the Ohio Valley Wednesday evening and into the eastern Great Lakes early Thursday. There is a coastal transfer but given the building -AO, I am perplexed as to why it isn't stronger. The shift in storm track is not a good one for Vermont though in spite of this, we still should be on the receiving end of a decent front-end thump and some powder for skiers for the Thursday ski day. This is shown on one model while most of the others a smaller accumulation than I would think under the circumstances followed by a change to sleet Thursday morning and perhaps a small dose of the dreaded freezing rain during the midday period. I don't think the ice will be a significant problem and I am instead hoping for a trend showing a nice plastering of 6-10 inches of snow Thursday morning. It's not shown now unfortunately, just 3-6 inches with some sleet for the start of the ski day.

Light snow showers are expected as arctic makes a return to Vermont for Friday. Expect a cold, blustery and sunny day with temperatures in the teens. Clouds then return for Saturday and snow from storm 2 is expected to arrive sometime Saturday evening. Ensembles, in the aggregate, are still quite bullish on the Saturday event though this system has also shifted slightly north and yes, we would like this trend to stop as of now.  Fueled by robust upper air support, this storm will start like many of the great ones, with severe weather in the south. Low pressure will then take aim at New England for Sunday with a narrowing range of possible outcomes. The worst appears to be a trajectory right over northern Vermont and this would limit the snowfall to a small accumulation on the front end  and a healthier 5-10 on the back Sunday evening and night. A track over central or southern New England would yield a much better 15-30 inch like result as we would remain in the healthy cold conveyor of the storm for an extended period on Sunday into Monday. 

In the last update, I made mention of the President's Day holiday and that the air looked cold but not bitterly cold. More recent indications would suggest that a period of bitterly cold temperatures accompanied by high winds is now more likely centered around the Monday to Tuesday time frame. Right now Monday appears to be the windiest with readings in the vicinity of 10 and Tuesday appears to be the coldest with readings near zero and winds remaining formidable. I expect some good skiing those days, but prepare for the elements.The remainder of the week features gradually softening cold and a potential third storm brewing over the south. Ensembles have been moving this sucker around from run to run, but the setup appears very good for a Miller A type storm which means some sort of strong low pressure area moving up the coast (as opposed to many storms which come at us from the west). A long way to go on this  weather system. 

Looks like we get a bit of support from the PNA for the last week of February and when combined with the currently building negative AO, should provide us with another wintry week to finish a fantastic month. 

 

Vermont remains on the cold side of an intense temperature clash that means big storms over the next 7 days

Another fantastic weekend in the books and one has to go back quite a long way to remember so many winning weekends with the season still in the vicinity of the half way mark. There's much to discuss and when weather maps look like this, smaller details can get missed or glossed over so apologies for that in advance. 

A core of bitterly cold air will attempt to build across northern New England early this week. While the most intense part of this airmass is expected to remain to our northwest, it is nonetheless impressive to see sub-zero readings (Tuesday and Wednesday morning) with such a strong jet stream ridge across southeast North America. Such is the playing field this week and when you mix it all together, you can create all kinds of intriguing weather situations.  In the near term, its just really the chilly temperatures that will be the story. Some partial sunshine can be expected for Monday with temperatures in the teens. The polar jet is expected to bring a weak disturbance with just enough moisture to induce a bit of snowfall Tuesday. The heaviest precipitation will be building across the southeast in this period, but will be well south of Vermont.  The 1-4 inches of snow Tuesday precedes a fair weather though quite arctic high pressure center which will temporarily build across the state and and allow for clearing late in the day Tuesday and then a very sub-zero night when readings could reach -10 or -15. Following the cold and calm bluebird Wednesday, clouds will be on the increase and the fun begins. 

There are two big weather systems to contend with over the next week. The first on Thursday has an initial low that is now forecast to track a bit farther north than what was indicated a few days ago. Though I am not quite sure the track has been nailed down yet, I am confident in a critical energy transfer which should ensure snow for northern Vermont. The trajectory of the initial storm remains critical as it will determine whether we are supplied with the best conveyor of moisture and get a 10-20 inch storm or a 4-8 inch storm. The energy transfer is also key as a robust one should assist us with the moisture question and eliminating the problem of having an initial storm travel over the Adirondacks. The action is expected to begin Thursday morning and I am curious to see how models handle this over the next few days. This is the time of the year for energy transfers, not big wound up areas of low pressure in the eastern Great Lakes and an enhancement of the former will help us nail down one of the better snow events of the season. This system is also a fast moving one, riding that furious jet which is fueled by the clashing of jet stream features (the polar one and the southeast ridge). Drier air is expected to take over by Friday, which is expected to be blustery no matter what the storm does and chilly with temperatures in the teens and below zero wind chills. 

Is the storm expected for February 16th finally going to evolve into the big one ? Ensembles have been trending that way in their simulations over the past few days. This is a storm expected to get a massive amount of fuel from the Gulf that will likely include a violent day of severe weather in the south on Saturday, February 15th. Winter storms that orginate this way, with convective energy near the Gulf, often do become the historic nor'easters we remember years later and I am very confident of a very strong area of low pressure moving northeast toward us later in the weekend. The particulars beyond this will need to be sorted out, but most of the questions relate to the track and strength of the storm and not a phase or an energy transfer and this eliminates some moving parts. Still the storm could get pushed south or north limiting the snowfall. Yes, a big amplifier, even in this weather pattern could bring mixed precipitation though I still consider it less likely verses an all snow scenario. 

Still expecting the negative AO to dominate the back part of February. This has been the missing ingredient in teleconnection speak over the past month with the cold induced mostly by the EPO and PNA, both of which have been very favorable with the former often being underestimated and the latter responsible for the unfortunate situation in Southern California. A pattern dominated by a negative AO such as this one usually consists of a softer chill as opposed to bitterly cold temperatures and a constant threat for east coast storms. Enjoy folks and hope for big results this week ! 

Fantastic snow setup emerging with 4-8 inches of cold snow this weekend and a big one possible Feb 13-14

It's been both a snowy and cold week across interior New England. The first 7 days of February has in fact seen lower temperatures than what we saw in the recent cold month of January. And this has all happened while much of the southern United States has experienced temperatures more typical of mid-Spring. This raging north to south temperature battle is expected to continue for the next 10 days and will be responsible for a very interesting set of weather maps which, if even half of these verify, will result in a lot of snow for us.

Still expecting some snow showers to linger into early Saturday and then it appears to be a very seasonable February day. Sunshine should dim as the day progresses and winds are expected to eventually become relatively calm. Even though some snowfall is approaching, visibility should stay very good throughout the day. The track of the storm responsible for the snow Saturday night has shifted south just a touch and the heaviest snowfall has also shifted south. It's a quick moving storm and is still poised to deposit a modest and cold snowfall for MRG. Snow begins in the evening and ends as a light snowfall midday Sunday. Expect a 4-8 inches total for ski day Sunday with temperatures holding in the high teens. .

As mentioned, this is really a battle royale as arctic cold covering much of southern Canada next week attempts to undercut a rather formidable ridge positioned over southeast North America. There are multiple waves of low pressure expected to form along this highly baroclinic zone. Vermont can expect a dry and cold Monday and this is our best shot for sunshine. Clouds are then expected to dominate the rest of the week along with chilly temperatures. The first wave of low pressure is currently indicated to be a snow producer for the coast while delivering inland area a glancing blow. As the week progresses, there are growing indications that the next wave of low pressure could evolve into a sizeable winter storm that could become the biggest of the season for interior areas of New England. The timing of this appears to be in the Thursday to Friday (Feb 13-14), 18 years removed from what was the best winter storm of the century for Mad River Glen. We are just less than a week away from this so expect some fine tuning. 

The potential late week snow is not the last. Ensembles indicate another amplification late in the holiday weekend, centered around the President's Day holiday. To my eyes, this appears more like another snow or storm situation rather than an excessive cold type of amplification though more cold weather is expected in the wake of this persisting through at least February 19th.  What was initially an EPO driven winter weather situation will become a more -AO driven situation and this should really reduce the risk of a thaw even beyond February 20th. In the meantime, this certainly qualifies as one of the best snow setups I've seen in Vermont in some time.

 

3-6 inches beginning midday Thursday and heavier snow appears likelier for the weekend

The bluebird special got served cold on Wednesday. We got the wind to diminish a bit from Tuesday though it certainly wasn't zero and wind chills were well below zero with actual temperatures close to zero. Never said zero so much in one sentence. The cold weather is part of our mission to flatten the pattern and eliminate the threat of mild air and rainfall late this week. Mission accomplished ! Clouds and storminess approaching Wednesday night will be greeted with a very healthy supply of cold air. The storm simply isn't amplified enough to displace the cold weather entirely and its attempt to do so will result in a decent front-end thump snow beginning midday Thursday. The snow during the ski day Thursday will fall cold, with temperatures in the teens. Those temperatures are expected to rise slowly Thursday evening and are expected to be in the upper 20's Friday morning. By that point, we can expect 3-6 inches to have fallen half of which will fall during the ski day Thursday, half later in the evening. Still appears to be a short window for some freezing drizzle late Thursday night and some above freezing temperatures with the partial clearing we can expect for Friday, but that is the extent of the thaw which at one point appeared pretty ominous on some of the model simulations. Snow showers are actually expected to return to the mountains during the afternoon Friday and continue into Friday night depositing a small accumulation ahead of the ski day Saturday. 

This winter has already reached the "pretty darn good category" having extended the stretch of rain-free weather to almost 40 days at least on the mountain. The snow we've gotten has also added up, though it certainly hasn't come all at once or from any well organized storm system. One of the better looking weather systems of the season this weekend might make a bid at providing us with the heaviest snow of the season. Some questions remain as to the exact track and though the uncertainty range is actually narrow 3-4 days out, the eventual answer will determine where the heaviest snow will fall (central or southern New England). We know the system will be moving quickly, somewhat limiting the upside on snow potential as this will be another product of the ferocious north to south temperature battle happening as we discuss. The snow would begin Saturday night, end midday Sunday and I will give readers a preliminary range of 4" (if everything goes wrong) to 16" (if everything goes right). Should be a cold snow whatever the outcome with temperatures in the teens to low 20's throughout the upcoming weekend. 

Arctic cold, the core of which should remain well north and west of Vermont, is set to reestablish a presence in New England following the exit of Sunday's system. Interestingly this arctic air is undercutting a persistent ridge located over the southeast US. A weak clipper could bring some clouds and light snow to Vermont late Monday into Tuesday of next week, but I think most of the action and our attention will focus on a building area of storminess building closer to the temperature battle line in the Tennessee and Ohio Valleys. The setup should bring a big area of mixed precipitation to the aforementioned area and the questions revolve around what will happen to this storm as it inches its way northward as the week progresses. Most of the simulations bring some additional snow to Vermont either in the middle or later part of the week and there's certainly the possibility of a major northeast snow event somewhere. 

Beyond the later part of next week, the EPO is expected to neutralize while the AO, which has been generally positive for the last 3 weeks is expected to turn negative (supportive of cold) and stay that way through the middle part of February. The critical piece of information to take from all this, at least as I see it, is that there is nothing to dislodge the core of cold that is currently situated over western Canada. It should remain in place for much of the month and be a major factor in the weather across New England, especially as the pattern allows some of that cold to push eastward after February 11.

Snow tonight, less mild late this week, more snow this weekend all part of a beautiful update !

 Lots of good stuff in this update and I can't help but continue to think of where we were last February in contrast to now. In 2024 we had a historic continental scouring of arctic air and I was trying to take solace in the fact that Vermont was only 10 degrees above normal as opposed to 25. Though the pattern has realigned with the core of the cold now focused on areas farther west, that core of cold represents some of the coldest air on the planet and large portions of Canada are set for a dramatically colder February than  the one a year ago. New England sits in one of the more interesting locations and will see cold to the north constantly doing better with pushes of milder air from the southeast. We saw that cold win out this past weekend and produce a -15 degree morning (coldest of the season in many locations) and though the forecast still includes threats of mixed precipitation and a little bit of rain, these interludes of milder air appear weaker, shorter and not an especially dominant part of the outlook for the next two weeks. 

When things are going well, you steal events like the one we can expect for Monday night. Temps will sneak above freezing in valley areas Monday. Hopefully it makes for a comfortable ski day for those heading out, but the best part is that it won't negatively impact precipitation when it arrives Monday night. Some years, it's hard to produce a decent anafrontal situation where the snowfall is induced by undercutting cold air and this appears to be one of those. It appears to be a very straightforward situation with some snow arriving after the ski day, falling steadily until about midnight and tapering to flurries thereafter. Temps will be in the upper 20's on the mountain as the snow is falling, closer to freezing in valley areas and by the time the ski day begins on Tuesday we should have 4-7 inches and by then it will be powdery with temperatures spending much of the day in the teens. 

Jet stream is set up to produce a nice period of sunshine from late Tuesday through Wednesday albeit with some very cold temperatures and in the case of Tuesday wind. Much like the weekend, the push of cold is more direct and should produce another round of sub-zero temperatures both Wednesday and Thursday morning. Wednesday's cold is the version I prefer however with excellent visibility, lots of blue skies and tolerable wind speeds that are expected to get pretty calm by late in the day. Clouds return by Thursday and temperatures will moderate and rise into the 20's. We've had our eye on Thursday's weather system for a while as one that might bring mixed precipitation, rain and/or a significant thaw. Models have all backed off on the latter two which is terrific news.  We can now expect a decent front-end thump of snow beginning in the midday hours that will change to some sort of mixture in the evening hours. Temperatures might exceed the freezing mark for several hour Thursday night, but not in a material way. I don't think the mixed precipitation will be all that significant either though it does remain a part of this equation. Colder air returns during the day Friday and temperatures fall back to sub-freezing levels accompanied by lighter snow showers. 

The 2nd in a series of storms this pattern is set to produce appears very promising for the back end of this weekend. It's a similar looking storm to the one set to impact us this Thursday only with a storm track that is further south. Because the system is still 5-6 days out, we should still anticipate some alterations but this certainly has the potential to produce significant snowfall accumulations for northern Vermont. 

Much of this update is colder themed and this covers the outlook beyond this upcoming weekend and into next week. The core of the coldest air remains well to our west and north yet we will continue to see this cold make southward intrusions into interior New England and produce days like this past Sunday or this upcoming Wednesday. I am more excited about the potential storminess however which continues to look a lot more active verses what we saw in a relatively dry, but cold January. Whatever kind of storm we get Sunday, should be out the door by early next week and will be followed by another potential storm in the middle to later part of the week after 2-3 drier days. The Euro ensemble turned much colder President's Day weekend and beyond though this is not entirely supported by the Canadian and American ensembles. Either way, its an outlook that's shifted from normal to above on a temperature range to normal to below. Just a really solid update for us Vermont loving skiers overall ! Enjoy !