Tuesday's clouds are expected to linger into the overnight just enough to prevent an excessively cold Wednesday morning. We then are expecting another interval of February sunshine for Wednesday and not much wind atop the small accumulation of snow. We have eyes on two storms over the next 5 days and a potential third is out there late next week. Can't say I am entirely happy with the trends though it remains a pretty good forecast for northern Vermont overall.
Storm number 1 appears to be a real head scratcher for me. Sure we are still competing with a pesky southeast ridge though arctic air has proven strong enough to overwhelm this feature and provide Washington, DC with several inches of snow which is highly unusual in this jet stream. The next wave of low pressure is expected to proceed through the Ohio Valley Wednesday evening and into the eastern Great Lakes early Thursday. There is a coastal transfer but given the building -AO, I am perplexed as to why it isn't stronger. The shift in storm track is not a good one for Vermont though in spite of this, we still should be on the receiving end of a decent front-end thump and some powder for skiers for the Thursday ski day. This is shown on one model while most of the others a smaller accumulation than I would think under the circumstances followed by a change to sleet Thursday morning and perhaps a small dose of the dreaded freezing rain during the midday period. I don't think the ice will be a significant problem and I am instead hoping for a trend showing a nice plastering of 6-10 inches of snow Thursday morning. It's not shown now unfortunately, just 3-6 inches with some sleet for the start of the ski day.
Light snow showers are expected as arctic makes a return to Vermont for Friday. Expect a cold, blustery and sunny day with temperatures in the teens. Clouds then return for Saturday and snow from storm 2 is expected to arrive sometime Saturday evening. Ensembles, in the aggregate, are still quite bullish on the Saturday event though this system has also shifted slightly north and yes, we would like this trend to stop as of now. Fueled by robust upper air support, this storm will start like many of the great ones, with severe weather in the south. Low pressure will then take aim at New England for Sunday with a narrowing range of possible outcomes. The worst appears to be a trajectory right over northern Vermont and this would limit the snowfall to a small accumulation on the front end and a healthier 5-10 on the back Sunday evening and night. A track over central or southern New England would yield a much better 15-30 inch like result as we would remain in the healthy cold conveyor of the storm for an extended period on Sunday into Monday.
In the last update, I made mention of the President's Day holiday and that the air looked cold but not bitterly cold. More recent indications would suggest that a period of bitterly cold temperatures accompanied by high winds is now more likely centered around the Monday to Tuesday time frame. Right now Monday appears to be the windiest with readings in the vicinity of 10 and Tuesday appears to be the coldest with readings near zero and winds remaining formidable. I expect some good skiing those days, but prepare for the elements.The remainder of the week features gradually softening cold and a potential third storm brewing over the south. Ensembles have been moving this sucker around from run to run, but the setup appears very good for a Miller A type storm which means some sort of strong low pressure area moving up the coast (as opposed to many storms which come at us from the west). A long way to go on this weather system.
Looks like we get a bit of support from the PNA for the last week of February and when combined with the currently building negative AO, should provide us with another wintry week to finish a fantastic month.
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