The bluebird special got served cold on Wednesday. We got the wind to diminish a bit from Tuesday though it certainly wasn't zero and wind chills were well below zero with actual temperatures close to zero. Never said zero so much in one sentence. The cold weather is part of our mission to flatten the pattern and eliminate the threat of mild air and rainfall late this week. Mission accomplished ! Clouds and storminess approaching Wednesday night will be greeted with a very healthy supply of cold air. The storm simply isn't amplified enough to displace the cold weather entirely and its attempt to do so will result in a decent front-end thump snow beginning midday Thursday. The snow during the ski day Thursday will fall cold, with temperatures in the teens. Those temperatures are expected to rise slowly Thursday evening and are expected to be in the upper 20's Friday morning. By that point, we can expect 3-6 inches to have fallen half of which will fall during the ski day Thursday, half later in the evening. Still appears to be a short window for some freezing drizzle late Thursday night and some above freezing temperatures with the partial clearing we can expect for Friday, but that is the extent of the thaw which at one point appeared pretty ominous on some of the model simulations. Snow showers are actually expected to return to the mountains during the afternoon Friday and continue into Friday night depositing a small accumulation ahead of the ski day Saturday.
This winter has already reached the "pretty darn good category" having extended the stretch of rain-free weather to almost 40 days at least on the mountain. The snow we've gotten has also added up, though it certainly hasn't come all at once or from any well organized storm system. One of the better looking weather systems of the season this weekend might make a bid at providing us with the heaviest snow of the season. Some questions remain as to the exact track and though the uncertainty range is actually narrow 3-4 days out, the eventual answer will determine where the heaviest snow will fall (central or southern New England). We know the system will be moving quickly, somewhat limiting the upside on snow potential as this will be another product of the ferocious north to south temperature battle happening as we discuss. The snow would begin Saturday night, end midday Sunday and I will give readers a preliminary range of 4" (if everything goes wrong) to 16" (if everything goes right). Should be a cold snow whatever the outcome with temperatures in the teens to low 20's throughout the upcoming weekend.
Arctic cold, the core of which should remain well north and west of Vermont, is set to reestablish a presence in New England following the exit of Sunday's system. Interestingly this arctic air is undercutting a persistent ridge located over the southeast US. A weak clipper could bring some clouds and light snow to Vermont late Monday into Tuesday of next week, but I think most of the action and our attention will focus on a building area of storminess building closer to the temperature battle line in the Tennessee and Ohio Valleys. The setup should bring a big area of mixed precipitation to the aforementioned area and the questions revolve around what will happen to this storm as it inches its way northward as the week progresses. Most of the simulations bring some additional snow to Vermont either in the middle or later part of the week and there's certainly the possibility of a major northeast snow event somewhere.
Beyond the later part of next week, the EPO is expected to neutralize while the AO, which has been generally positive for the last 3 weeks is expected to turn negative (supportive of cold) and stay that way through the middle part of February. The critical piece of information to take from all this, at least as I see it, is that there is nothing to dislodge the core of cold that is currently situated over western Canada. It should remain in place for much of the month and be a major factor in the weather across New England, especially as the pattern allows some of that cold to push eastward after February 11.
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