It's been both a snowy and cold week across interior New England. The first 7 days of February has in fact seen lower temperatures than what we saw in the recent cold month of January. And this has all happened while much of the southern United States has experienced temperatures more typical of mid-Spring. This raging north to south temperature battle is expected to continue for the next 10 days and will be responsible for a very interesting set of weather maps which, if even half of these verify, will result in a lot of snow for us.
Still expecting some snow showers to linger into early Saturday and then it appears to be a very seasonable February day. Sunshine should dim as the day progresses and winds are expected to eventually become relatively calm. Even though some snowfall is approaching, visibility should stay very good throughout the day. The track of the storm responsible for the snow Saturday night has shifted south just a touch and the heaviest snowfall has also shifted south. It's a quick moving storm and is still poised to deposit a modest and cold snowfall for MRG. Snow begins in the evening and ends as a light snowfall midday Sunday. Expect a 4-8 inches total for ski day Sunday with temperatures holding in the high teens. .
As mentioned, this is really a battle royale as arctic cold covering much of southern Canada next week attempts to undercut a rather formidable ridge positioned over southeast North America. There are multiple waves of low pressure expected to form along this highly baroclinic zone. Vermont can expect a dry and cold Monday and this is our best shot for sunshine. Clouds are then expected to dominate the rest of the week along with chilly temperatures. The first wave of low pressure is currently indicated to be a snow producer for the coast while delivering inland area a glancing blow. As the week progresses, there are growing indications that the next wave of low pressure could evolve into a sizeable winter storm that could become the biggest of the season for interior areas of New England. The timing of this appears to be in the Thursday to Friday (Feb 13-14), 18 years removed from what was the best winter storm of the century for Mad River Glen. We are just less than a week away from this so expect some fine tuning.
The potential late week snow is not the last. Ensembles indicate another amplification late in the holiday weekend, centered around the President's Day holiday. To my eyes, this appears more like another snow or storm situation rather than an excessive cold type of amplification though more cold weather is expected in the wake of this persisting through at least February 19th. What was initially an EPO driven winter weather situation will become a more -AO driven situation and this should really reduce the risk of a thaw even beyond February 20th. In the meantime, this certainly qualifies as one of the best snow setups I've seen in Vermont in some time.
3 comments:
If you're happy, I'm happy!
Awesome report, thanks!
If it looks like we’re in a negative AO through late February, does that suggest that early March will switch to positive AO with thaw? Or do you think the negative AO will stretch into March?
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