Across the entire continent of North America, there is only significant weather producer. Its a significnat one, a blizzard, poised to bury much of eastern Colorado with snow. Eastern Colorado and western Kansas are lonely places however, void of mountains and most vegetation. Resorts such as A-Basin, Keystone, Copper, Vail and Aspen are in the central and western sections of Colorado, west of the divide. Those areas will actually only get a few inches out of this storm proving that it has been a very painful year for almost everyone. The exception ? The Canadian Rockies which has reaped the benefits of the same very active Pacific Jet stream I have been groaning about all year.
The "loosening" of this active Pacific Jet will occur on schedule and the result will be the development of a large upper level Ridge across western North America. This feature will be the biggest in the Northern Hemiphsere for a period of a few days, so big in fact that it will take longer to funnel cold toward the eastern third of North America. Temperatures will be close to seasonable this weekend but the "blizzard" across the western Plains will not have a reinvigorating catalyst when it moves east and it will innocently move toward the Mid-Atlantic coast late Saturday then off the coast Sunday without threatening any part of New England with precipitation.
The beginning of next week is also expected to be benign with temperatures making another charge toward above-freezing levels Monday afternoon. Tuesday should see more clouds as the front marking the leading edge of colder temperatures marches southeast. This front will be riding the momentum of the aforementioned western ridge, it doesn't have much in the way of moisture to work with but flurries or a brief period of light snow is possible Tuesday and Tuesday night before another we enjoy another dry and seasonable day Wednesday.
The next chance of significant snow will come toward the end of next week in what appears to be an interesting time frame. As next week continues to progress, the ridge across the west will allow a polar vortex to move south from the polar regions to eastern Canada. Recent runs of many of the computer models have suggested that the impact of this "PV" will be confined to eastern Canada and the northeast U.S. next weekend. Certainly it could result in some of the coldest weather of the season but we are in dire need of a bit more than just bitter chill. We need some of this "PV" energy, even a small piece of it, to combine with undercutting Pacific energy to produce a storm. Its not an impossible task but requires "split flow" in the jet stream. The polar component of the flow looping around the western ridge deliving us the cold and upper air support and a southern branch of the jet delivering the moisture. We haven't heard much talk of "split flow" the last two years since La Nina makes it a tough sell. I would love to see it return however since it has certainly provided us with some epic times.
So we think a vague picture has emerged regarding next weekend including cold weather and hopefully at least a little new snow. Beyond that however begins an all out war between the two major ensemble packages. It is one of the biggest disagreements I have ever seen in the 10-15 day time frame. Interestingly, both ensembles keep a blocking pattern in place through the AO. The European however destroys the western ridge completely, showing another sharp tightening of the Pacific Jet and ultimately a return to zonal flow across the country. The American GFS weakens the western ridge but does not eliminate it. Instead, ridging that stretches from the North Atlantic, over Greenland and to the poles evolves gradually into a large "block" that allows for a continuation of both cold and frequent chances for snow. The European has been winning these arguments for much of the year but this battle has not been fought with the underlying teleconnection indices as favorable as they are now. I remain frustrated but have not abandoned hope.
Thursday, February 2, 2012
Tuesday, January 31, 2012
Ugh, two potential storms look dead
During the last update I had actually tried to reign in my excitement over what I thought could be an epic three weeks on the single beginning in early February. It was a very enthusiastic but non-specific update a few days ago. At that time models had indicated upwards of 4 significant snow events in a 10-12 day stretch. Within a day of that update, models had eliminated almost all of it and indicated a weather pattern not nearly as productive. I try really hard not to get overly theological regarding the "kiss of death" and then something like that happens and suggests that perhaps I would be better served blogging about the inevitable "doom and gloom" of this winter.
Is it really that bad ? No. We still only expect one "thaw" day Wednesday before temperatures turn colder but we lost the shot at a storm late in the week. Much of that energy will get held back in the western plains and that is where some of our problems begin. The failure of that system to phase with some of the incoming polar energy this weekend creates a disjointed jet stream rather than a clearly amplified pattern. When the western plains storm finally ejects itself into the Midwest, it will get shunted southward by a polar jet that will have already played its hand.
Overall though the pattern will be highly "blocked" for the next two weeks. The ridge across western North American will develop as advertised and allow a continuous throng of cold shots into New England to keep it wintry (although models have backed off on the intensity of the cold). Snow-wise however we are probably a week or so away from a potential powder producer. The weekend should stay mainly high, dry and seasonable. Not a bad one to be outside but at this point I would expect little or no fresh powder. By the middle of next week we should have a clipper that could yield some of the good stuff. This will be followed by a surge of colder temperatures and potentially a more organized storm system prior to the weekend of the 9th and 10th.
Still a relatively good stretch of weather, but I want more and am not happy with the way things are trending.
Is it really that bad ? No. We still only expect one "thaw" day Wednesday before temperatures turn colder but we lost the shot at a storm late in the week. Much of that energy will get held back in the western plains and that is where some of our problems begin. The failure of that system to phase with some of the incoming polar energy this weekend creates a disjointed jet stream rather than a clearly amplified pattern. When the western plains storm finally ejects itself into the Midwest, it will get shunted southward by a polar jet that will have already played its hand.
Overall though the pattern will be highly "blocked" for the next two weeks. The ridge across western North American will develop as advertised and allow a continuous throng of cold shots into New England to keep it wintry (although models have backed off on the intensity of the cold). Snow-wise however we are probably a week or so away from a potential powder producer. The weekend should stay mainly high, dry and seasonable. Not a bad one to be outside but at this point I would expect little or no fresh powder. By the middle of next week we should have a clipper that could yield some of the good stuff. This will be followed by a surge of colder temperatures and potentially a more organized storm system prior to the weekend of the 9th and 10th.
Still a relatively good stretch of weather, but I want more and am not happy with the way things are trending.
Sunday, January 29, 2012
No more consolation prizes, pattern looking golden by the weekend
It is now just a few days away. A few days and things should really start to get interesting at MRG. Two months of trying to make the most of a mostly lousy weather pattern and finally as we move toward February the stars align. The jet energy across the Pacific Northwest will undergo a complete collapse over the next week allowing a large ridge to develop across the western United States. Even better, this ridge will extend northward over western Canada right along 135 west ultimately reaching the polar regions. It is a development that should make us ecstatic since not too many weather features can make me as happy. The ridge across the west will eventually combine forces with another large ridge across over Greenland. Hopefully, the whole thing just turns into one big "high latitude block party". All the cold and snow can descend into the mid-latitudes and do so for an extended period of time.
There is a lot of potential over the next 2-3 weeks. Clippers, East Coast bombs, Gulf of Mexico monsters. We have the potential for all of it and we have earned it since we have certainly done enough time in the can this winter. I won't get too specific with this update. There is some powder to ski Monday and the push of warm air Wednesday will have an inch or two of snow preceding it on Tuesday. The Wednesday warmth however is a one day event. One afternoon of above freezing temps before the talk shifts to snow and eventually cold. Our first potential storm comes from a southern Rockies weather system that will push through the Midwest Thursday. Models are all over the place with this system. The Euro shows a nice hit Friday for most of Vermont but there are a few contrary opinions. As this new and much more amplified weather pattern begins to take shape over the weekend of the 4th and 5th, the chances for powder start coming from everywhere and very frequently. For example, several model runs have a Gulf of Mexico low pressure area blowing up and evolving into a massive snow producer in the Sunday/Monday time frame. Additional reenforcing amplifications throughout next week will provide more snow possibilities. It should be a good time to be alive in Vermont so as Bob Dylan used to say get busy doing it.
There is a lot of potential over the next 2-3 weeks. Clippers, East Coast bombs, Gulf of Mexico monsters. We have the potential for all of it and we have earned it since we have certainly done enough time in the can this winter. I won't get too specific with this update. There is some powder to ski Monday and the push of warm air Wednesday will have an inch or two of snow preceding it on Tuesday. The Wednesday warmth however is a one day event. One afternoon of above freezing temps before the talk shifts to snow and eventually cold. Our first potential storm comes from a southern Rockies weather system that will push through the Midwest Thursday. Models are all over the place with this system. The Euro shows a nice hit Friday for most of Vermont but there are a few contrary opinions. As this new and much more amplified weather pattern begins to take shape over the weekend of the 4th and 5th, the chances for powder start coming from everywhere and very frequently. For example, several model runs have a Gulf of Mexico low pressure area blowing up and evolving into a massive snow producer in the Sunday/Monday time frame. Additional reenforcing amplifications throughout next week will provide more snow possibilities. It should be a good time to be alive in Vermont so as Bob Dylan used to say get busy doing it.
Thursday, January 26, 2012
Nice stretch of winter starts around February 3rd
Rain on top of the freezing rain/sleet on top of a few inches of snow is the process by which concrete is made, or at least that is how I learned it. The 3-inch concrete slab is not exactly ideal when its plastered on top of 40 inches of powder. We don't have 40 inches of powder though so the concrete slab could be the start of the long road back.
Wintry weather should return for the weekend although temperatures will remain on the mild side Saturday. As mentioned in the last update, an eastern North American trough amplification will interrupt the mild pattern for a few days and embedded within this trough are two impulses capable of delivering the mountains some snow. The first rotates through the Great Lakes Saturday and spreads snow showers in the Green Mountains Saturday night. This particular weather feature is probably good for a 1-3 inch dust up but it will drop temperatures back into the 20's for Sunday (from the 30's Saturday). The second feature looks like a more traditional Alberta Clipper. It will bring some snow to MRG Sunday night setting the stage for a chilly but semi-powdery Monday. The system Sunday night has the look of a 2-4 inch event but this could change in the days ahead
I am certainly more encouraged about the way things may play out next week. Arctic chill will be able to maintain its footing through Tuesday morning before milder temperatures make another northward charge. I had advertised the possibility or record warmth a few days ago. That appears a little less likely now but more importantly the recent run of the European model showed the overall mild pattern more or less collapsing on itself late next week under the weight of what could prove to be an intriguing weather feature. I do feel fairly confident overall that ultimately, we will see some critical loosening of the Pacific Jet and a reversal of the PNA by Super Bowl weekend. How fast these changes manifest themselves into some tangible powdery goodness remains a question. There are hints that things could get very interesting along the east coast in the period between the 2nd and 5th of Feb. We have yet to see any real consistency but whispers of an east coast "bomb" began and I hope we can turn this into some real talk.
At the very least however, we should be able to look forward to an exciting 7-10 day stretch of weather beginning around the time of February 3. The PNA will be very supportive and will be coupled with at least some weak high latitude blocking either over Greenland or over the Arctic regions.
Wintry weather should return for the weekend although temperatures will remain on the mild side Saturday. As mentioned in the last update, an eastern North American trough amplification will interrupt the mild pattern for a few days and embedded within this trough are two impulses capable of delivering the mountains some snow. The first rotates through the Great Lakes Saturday and spreads snow showers in the Green Mountains Saturday night. This particular weather feature is probably good for a 1-3 inch dust up but it will drop temperatures back into the 20's for Sunday (from the 30's Saturday). The second feature looks like a more traditional Alberta Clipper. It will bring some snow to MRG Sunday night setting the stage for a chilly but semi-powdery Monday. The system Sunday night has the look of a 2-4 inch event but this could change in the days ahead
I am certainly more encouraged about the way things may play out next week. Arctic chill will be able to maintain its footing through Tuesday morning before milder temperatures make another northward charge. I had advertised the possibility or record warmth a few days ago. That appears a little less likely now but more importantly the recent run of the European model showed the overall mild pattern more or less collapsing on itself late next week under the weight of what could prove to be an intriguing weather feature. I do feel fairly confident overall that ultimately, we will see some critical loosening of the Pacific Jet and a reversal of the PNA by Super Bowl weekend. How fast these changes manifest themselves into some tangible powdery goodness remains a question. There are hints that things could get very interesting along the east coast in the period between the 2nd and 5th of Feb. We have yet to see any real consistency but whispers of an east coast "bomb" began and I hope we can turn this into some real talk.
At the very least however, we should be able to look forward to an exciting 7-10 day stretch of weather beginning around the time of February 3. The PNA will be very supportive and will be coupled with at least some weak high latitude blocking either over Greenland or over the Arctic regions.
Tuesday, January 24, 2012
Close call Friday but not looking good, weekend still looks wintry
We are in the midst of a very lousy upper air jet stream pattern. We paid for it Monday with mild temperatures and rain. We will likely pay for it again next week. Friday however remains a close call and the upcoming weekend will mark an interruption from the prevailing theme of the week. Models have had a very difficult time with Friday's system and the forecast has remained in an invariable state of flux for a few days. It looks as of now as if we will get an organized weather system fueled by Gulf moisture arriving Thursday night. There is almost no available cold air in the vicinity thanks to a dominant upper ridge positioned across eastern Canada. There is a little support coming from a polar-pacific impulse. It will dive underneath the Canadian ridge and attempt to inject a little bit of chill along with guiding the storm south of the St Lawrence Valley. It may not be enough in the end but its a close call. Precipitation will begin in the pre-dawn hours Friday and persist through a good part of the day. My guess right now is for an event consisting of sleet, freezing rain and some rain but it is close and a small change could improve the forecast. Areas north of Smuggs stand a better chance of getting some snow out of this system.
The weekend does mark a break from the madness of the mild air. We should get albeit temporary but significant east coast trough amplification. The result will be more seasonable and even below normal temperatures but it should also mean snow showers later in the day Saturday into Saturday night. The best chance for a powder day would be Sunday. I woudn't expect epic snow but a few inches is certainly possible.
The cold weather will persist through Monday but we will again see the reemergence of a dominant upper ridge that spans all of eastern North America. The coupling of Pacific energy and trough over Alaska and the ridging in the mid-latitude Pacific is just killing us. It is causing Pacific air to run the country over and in this case it will trigger record warmth across parts of the east coast and quite possible interior New England by the middle of next week.
Fortunately the winter thaw does appear to have an end on the horizon. By about the time of Super Bowl weekend there is evidence of a loosening of the Jet in the Pacific and a re-positioning of the ridge over North America farther west. This will allow the PNA index to go from highly unfavorable to favorable while the North Atlantic oscillation remains slightly favorable with slight evidence of blocking over Greenland. I know it hurts but keep the faith, we still have time to save the Presidents day holiday and beyond.
Speaking of the Super Bowl, we have a Giants vs Pats rematch which I am sure many loyal MRG skiers against one another. It was a game for the ages last time and I fully expect another one this go around. What I will never forget about 2008 however was the incredible rally we got in the weather in the week that followed Super Bowl 42. It looked for all the world that we would get 2 days of rain 40 degree temperatures. Suddenly, the Giants upset the Pats and just as dramatically the weather forecast shifted. Arctic air fought its way into interior New England and a train of low pressure systems delivered MRG like 30 inches of powder in 3 days.
Yeah its a reach but I am feeling around for some karma !!
The weekend does mark a break from the madness of the mild air. We should get albeit temporary but significant east coast trough amplification. The result will be more seasonable and even below normal temperatures but it should also mean snow showers later in the day Saturday into Saturday night. The best chance for a powder day would be Sunday. I woudn't expect epic snow but a few inches is certainly possible.
The cold weather will persist through Monday but we will again see the reemergence of a dominant upper ridge that spans all of eastern North America. The coupling of Pacific energy and trough over Alaska and the ridging in the mid-latitude Pacific is just killing us. It is causing Pacific air to run the country over and in this case it will trigger record warmth across parts of the east coast and quite possible interior New England by the middle of next week.
Fortunately the winter thaw does appear to have an end on the horizon. By about the time of Super Bowl weekend there is evidence of a loosening of the Jet in the Pacific and a re-positioning of the ridge over North America farther west. This will allow the PNA index to go from highly unfavorable to favorable while the North Atlantic oscillation remains slightly favorable with slight evidence of blocking over Greenland. I know it hurts but keep the faith, we still have time to save the Presidents day holiday and beyond.
Speaking of the Super Bowl, we have a Giants vs Pats rematch which I am sure many loyal MRG skiers against one another. It was a game for the ages last time and I fully expect another one this go around. What I will never forget about 2008 however was the incredible rally we got in the weather in the week that followed Super Bowl 42. It looked for all the world that we would get 2 days of rain 40 degree temperatures. Suddenly, the Giants upset the Pats and just as dramatically the weather forecast shifted. Arctic air fought its way into interior New England and a train of low pressure systems delivered MRG like 30 inches of powder in 3 days.
Yeah its a reach but I am feeling around for some karma !!
Sunday, January 22, 2012
Mild upcoming week perhaps not as bad as initially thought
The upcoming week had trouble written all over it going back two weeks. The forecast has in fact improved in recent days and we still could save the weekend of the 28th and 29th if we are lucky. First we are going to have to endure some freezing rain/drizzle Monday morning which will ultimately give way to rain and 40-degree temperatures Monday evening and Monday night. Following that the mountain will see a few dry and unseasonably warm days with temperatures in the 30's by day and 20's during the overnight. It is a very unexciting short term outlook but recall that I had expected worse with temperatures reaching 50 for one day and 40's for three.
By later Thursday it will again get interesting or perhaps it won't. The furious jet energy battering the Pacific Northwest will have won the U.S. over for the most part with mild weather spanning the area east of the front-range. On Wednesday, a storm will begin to gathering strength along the Texas coast and move northeast. It is likely to bring precipitation to MRG by late Thursday or early Friday. A few days ago I would have told you decisively that this would be a rain event and it still could be due to a lack of available cold. Split flow in the jet stream however provides a bit more drama to this storyline and some northern branch jet energy will try and undercut the large eastern Canadian ridge just as the more organized storm system approaches from the southwest. Both the American, European and Canadian models have had different things to say about this at different times. The recent run of the American model which is being released as I write this suggests the southern plains low pressure area late this week will get left back until the next system picks it up over the weekend turning it into a potential snow producer Saturday night into Sunday.
Given the period in question is less than a week away, the models are unusually disoriented and the specifics of the forecast picture will remain clouded for another day or two. With better certainty though I can say temperatures appear more winter-like for the weekend and that at a minimum, terrain induced snow showers should add at least a light accumulation of snow to the mountain.
Beyond the weekend moves us toward February and crunch time at MRG. Indications are inconclusive for the weekend and are even more inconclusive next week and beyond. Teleconnection indices appear move favorable overall with support coming from a slightly negative AO and NAO. The PNA is also expected to relax allowing the Pacific Northwest a break from the onslaught of storminess. The two dominant players on our side of the hemisphere will be a ridge setting up between the Aleutian Islands and the Gulf of Alaska and a downstream trough setting up between the Rockies and the Plains. The problem here is that the aforementioned sentence offers way too broad of a range of possibilities by the first of February. In short, we can derive optimism from both the GFS and European ensembles as we move into February but the GFS shows a more abrupt and quicker weakening of the Pacific Jet allowing these positive changes to occur more quickly. The European Ensembles suggest another push of mild weather toward the end of Jan or early in Feb before it gets better by the first full weekend of Feb.
Joe Paterno you are still loved by students and alumni that watched you coach. It is very sad to you go out the way you did. No one is life is perfect and everyone and anyone can be guilty of lapses in judgement but your positive impact on the people around you far out-weighed the negative.
By later Thursday it will again get interesting or perhaps it won't. The furious jet energy battering the Pacific Northwest will have won the U.S. over for the most part with mild weather spanning the area east of the front-range. On Wednesday, a storm will begin to gathering strength along the Texas coast and move northeast. It is likely to bring precipitation to MRG by late Thursday or early Friday. A few days ago I would have told you decisively that this would be a rain event and it still could be due to a lack of available cold. Split flow in the jet stream however provides a bit more drama to this storyline and some northern branch jet energy will try and undercut the large eastern Canadian ridge just as the more organized storm system approaches from the southwest. Both the American, European and Canadian models have had different things to say about this at different times. The recent run of the American model which is being released as I write this suggests the southern plains low pressure area late this week will get left back until the next system picks it up over the weekend turning it into a potential snow producer Saturday night into Sunday.
Given the period in question is less than a week away, the models are unusually disoriented and the specifics of the forecast picture will remain clouded for another day or two. With better certainty though I can say temperatures appear more winter-like for the weekend and that at a minimum, terrain induced snow showers should add at least a light accumulation of snow to the mountain.
Beyond the weekend moves us toward February and crunch time at MRG. Indications are inconclusive for the weekend and are even more inconclusive next week and beyond. Teleconnection indices appear move favorable overall with support coming from a slightly negative AO and NAO. The PNA is also expected to relax allowing the Pacific Northwest a break from the onslaught of storminess. The two dominant players on our side of the hemisphere will be a ridge setting up between the Aleutian Islands and the Gulf of Alaska and a downstream trough setting up between the Rockies and the Plains. The problem here is that the aforementioned sentence offers way too broad of a range of possibilities by the first of February. In short, we can derive optimism from both the GFS and European ensembles as we move into February but the GFS shows a more abrupt and quicker weakening of the Pacific Jet allowing these positive changes to occur more quickly. The European Ensembles suggest another push of mild weather toward the end of Jan or early in Feb before it gets better by the first full weekend of Feb.
Joe Paterno you are still loved by students and alumni that watched you coach. It is very sad to you go out the way you did. No one is life is perfect and everyone and anyone can be guilty of lapses in judgement but your positive impact on the people around you far out-weighed the negative.
Thursday, January 19, 2012
Light snow Saturday, freezing rain to rain on Monday
The fast moving storm system slated to move from the Rockies Friday to the east coast Saturday will spread snow into Vermont Saturday morning. For the northern third of Vermont, it will be very close. The best snow from this storm appears to be across southern New England where 4-6 inches is expected. Farther north it will be difficult for some of this moisture to penetrate a very dry and very cold airmass. It is still reasonable to expect some light snow to begin early in the day and continue through early in the afternoon but accumulations will be on the lighter, 1-3 inch side. Still with the fresh snow from Thursday night into Friday morning it should be a pretty good day to ski. Sunday's temps will start below zero but moderate significantly by the afternoon rising into the 20's.
Temps will continue the moderation into Monday when a more potent storm system approaches and tracks directly north out of the southern plains to the eastern Great Lakes. The region will thus get flooded with warm air, initially just at the tropospheric mid-levels and ultimately everywhere. A period of freezing rain or drizzle is likely during the day Monday. By Monday night, the front associated with this storm system will arrive flushing out any lingering cold and bringing a period of rain along with a night of 40-plus temperatures.
Monday's system is a no-doubt-about-it loser and the airmass in the wake of Monday's system will be represented by relatively benign Pacific air. Such airmasses might feel nice but they are a direct product of that angry Pacific Jet out west. Much of the east including even Vermont will struggle to see temperatures well below freezing. The pattern will be conducive for another rain event later in the week but models have been a bit more capricious in this time frame. Some even engaging in a little bit of hope for MRG.
More on the long range this weekend after a few good nights of sleep. Stay warm this weekend and enjoy whatever snow we get.
Temps will continue the moderation into Monday when a more potent storm system approaches and tracks directly north out of the southern plains to the eastern Great Lakes. The region will thus get flooded with warm air, initially just at the tropospheric mid-levels and ultimately everywhere. A period of freezing rain or drizzle is likely during the day Monday. By Monday night, the front associated with this storm system will arrive flushing out any lingering cold and bringing a period of rain along with a night of 40-plus temperatures.
Monday's system is a no-doubt-about-it loser and the airmass in the wake of Monday's system will be represented by relatively benign Pacific air. Such airmasses might feel nice but they are a direct product of that angry Pacific Jet out west. Much of the east including even Vermont will struggle to see temperatures well below freezing. The pattern will be conducive for another rain event later in the week but models have been a bit more capricious in this time frame. Some even engaging in a little bit of hope for MRG.
More on the long range this weekend after a few good nights of sleep. Stay warm this weekend and enjoy whatever snow we get.
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