A marginal and somewhat mild pattern is still, and probably will produce at least some decent results for northern Vermont late next week

The combination of very fast zonal flow in the Pacific and a very unblocked jet stream in the Arctic has certainly been the main contributor to the very warm January we are currently finishing in Vermont. The impacts of this have been much, much farther reaching than just Vermont. Most of the continents of both North America and a large part of mid-latitude Eurasia have been warm. You can include pretty much all of northern Africa in that category as well.

Vermont has seen worse winter months and certainly worse January's from the standpoint of snow. Even the polar vortex winter of 2013-2014 can accurately be described as having a worse January from a snow perspective. February and March 2014 saw a big turnaround that year but storms managed to completely miss the state for the month of January and we were even hit with a very isolated thaw  that managed to miss other parts of the country.

Many of those same other parts of the country have had a glaring lack of winter weather this year. Vermont has actually managed to hold up ok in a relative sense, and its starting to look like that trend will continue. El Torchy is poised to deliver a strong dose of very mild air early next week and most of that will actually miss northern Vermont. Though we are not expecting any big snow for the weekend, flurries will accompany sub-freezing temperatures on Saturday followed by a Sunday; which, for the most part will feature similar temperatures and just cloudy skies (and little wind). We can expect a bit of snow on Sunday night and its not entirely insignificant. The snow will stem from the push of milder Pacific air into the region and the northern part of Vermont should be able to score a 2-4 inch event by Monday morning. Monday still appears to be the mild day in the immediate forecast picture but not nearly as mild as areas a couple hundred miles to our south. Temperatures will climb past the freezing mark in the low lying areas but will struggle to do so across the high country.

The outlook then gets very interesting as the week continues to progress. Its a tale of the classic New England airmass clash. Cold air from eastern Canada will be building and trying to push south while a ridge in the jet stream over the southeastern United States continues to push back. The result is a very active several days of weather and multiple precipitation producing storms. Do we have the latitude necessary to keep the precipitation snow and keep the freezing rain and rain away ? Probably not entirely but we appear to be mostly on the right side of this set up. Models continue to sort through the details and some additional changes are likely but the first flatter wave around the Wednesday time frame will likely bring some snow followed by a stronger more amplified system in the Thursday/Friday time frame that could bring the bigger variety of precipitation types, including more snow. Some powdery periods are possible in this time frame and as the details start to become more clear, the blog will try to pinpoint where those are.

Colder weather is expected for the weekend of February 8th and 9th and we can hope that the storm late next week will end as snow. After that it will be more of the same through the middle of the month. A strong area of cold centered over interior eastern Canada will battle it out with a general area of mild weather centered over the southeastern United States. The risk of a thaw is undeniable but this set up is entirely capable of producing more at least somewhat good results for northern New England and really northern New England alone. Areas farther south will continue to see very mild conditions.

Weekend storm looks like a dud while overall pattern is certainly presents some challenges

I had hoped the news would get better today but it really hasn't. Though the ensembles continue to tease us with signs and signals of amplifying east coast jet streams, possible storms and more intense outbreaks of arctic cold, the pattern fundamentals remain poor. This continues to stem from activity in the mid-latitude Pacific; which, for a better part December and January has made it very difficult to sustain a wintry pattern across eastern North America. The EPO which indirectly measures the strength of eastern Pacific jet stream has been negative or favorable for about week out of 2 months. The Arctic Oscillation (AO) hasn't performed much better, only attaining a negative or favorable posture for about 2 weeks. Interior New England appears positioned to avoid a sustained torch (and their will be one for parts of the east coast), but it will still make winter weather life unnecessarily frustrating at times.

Wednesday began another 3-day stretch of dry and predominantly sunshiney weather. Temperatures will be chilly by night, dropping below zero in certain locations through Friday but some stronger, better angled sunshine and little wind will make for some comfortable ski days with readings remaining just shy of the freezing mark across the country during the afternoons. Our first opportunity at a February storm appears to be a miss this weekend. There's a southern branch feature and a nice looking Canadian kicker impulse but not much in the jet stream to hold it all in place. It's worth watching over the next two days but this system is both not expected to completely phase and be well too far east to produce any real magic. The Canadian kicker passing so far to our south may also have the effect of focusing snow shower activity south and west of Vermont. Though I wouldn't entirely eliminate the possibility of light snow this Saturday, a dry and only somewhat cloudy day is looking like a greater possibility. We have a better chance for some snow from warm advection later Sunday after Saturday's storm is well downstream of us.

Early next week, much of the eastern two thirds of the United States will bask in a giant blow torch. Simply put, it looks more and more like a giant area of Pacific air capable of producing widespread near record high temperatures once it is displaced from the Rocky Mountains beginning Sunday and extending through the middle part of next week. Now, for the time being, Vermont appears positioned to avoid most of this. Like I mentioned, some snow is possible late in the day Sunday and that will extend into Sunday night.  By Monday appears to be the day where some milder temperatures could make the northward journey into much of Vermont but it remains a close call with colder arctic air remaining close by at least if not encompassing part of the state. As the week progresses, that cold air should again push south slowly and should set the stage for the classic east coast airmass clash. Though I certainly can't promise or wouldn't yet predict an epic week of powder, these types of setups can be productive, especially for northern Vermont. Areas farther south will see better golfing conditions than skiing conditions.

The situation described above is a bit of a change from recent indications but much more consistent with the overall pattern fundamentals. That being said, this pattern is likely going to continue through the middle of February. It doesn't mean we aren't capable of scoring but we will be skating on some thin ice. One aspect of the outlook that does look encouraging is the strong area of cold predicted to be centered over eastern interior Canada and out over the Davis Strait and Labrador Sea. Much like what as described in the previous paragraphs, this should help keep cold air at least close and in play. And the pattern is capable of producing several storms so we will need all the cold weather help we can muster.

Models predicting a non-event this weekend though ingredients are still there for "something"

Above 2000 feet in northern Vermont largely escaped most of the above-freezing temperatures and the wet weather this past weekend. Below 2000, it was a somewhat different story and that elevation sensitive story continued through Sunday and into Monday. The snow showers responsible for the recent additions of snow will continue (albeit pretty light) through Monday night and will deposit another inch or so by Tuesday morning. Another extended stretch of dry weather then begins on Tuesday. The sun will make only a limited appearance Tuesday but should dominate the weather for all of Wednesday, Thursday and Friday and certainly help to make for some excellent visibility. Temperatures will also stay well below freezing, reaching the 20's during the day and falling generally into the single numbers during the night. Calm winds Wednesday and Thursday night could certainly allow a few places to fall below zero but those same calm winds should make those readings a bit more tolerable. The real arctic cold has been over Alaska for much of this month and that is expected to continue this week.

Though the weather is expected to dry out and remain pretty tranquil for the duration of this week, the southern branch of the jet stream is active and is expected to produce a series of precipitation producing disturbances. The first later this week will pass well to our south and allow our weather to stay sunny as mentioned above. We are hoping the 2nd will join forces with some incoming jet energy from Canada and produce a mammoth weekend storm. Storms that are predicated on a jet stream phase are always a difficult ask and models have an especially difficult time pinpointing that type of action even 3 days out no less a week. The late March storm from last year involved a phase but models failed to predict the event until within 72 hours of the event. All I can say for the blog is that we acknowledged the possibility for "something" yet certainly failed to predict 4-inch an hour snowfall rates (which is what we ended up receiving). At face value, models are suggesting a non event. The southern branch feature appears weaker and too far east while the Canadian "kicker" arrives a hare too late over the Mid-Atlantic. These situations are always fluid however. The ingredients are there however. A stronger southern streamer and this thing will happen.  A more non-event type weekend would still include the chance for snow showers. There will be a favored zone for such activity in the northeast and it remains to be seen whether that zone will be farther west extending from western New York down through the Appalachian Mountains or whether that is more over us across interior New England.

So I had expressed some affectionate dismay over the invariable lack of teleconnection support this winter and although the possibility of a storm this weekend has dropped somewhat, at least the AO/NAO appear more neutral for the first 10 days of February. This should allow arctic air to become a more visible part of the forecast picture in early February and will also provide us with what perhaps could be a key ingredient toward the middle to end of next week. Ensembles have been highlighting the possibility for a big east coast jet amplification for some time and an event in that Wednesday-Thursday time frame is certainly possible. All sorts of things are actually possible in this period since models also indicate a brief opportunity for some milder temperatures around Tuesday February 4th. Could be a nice all-snow event or wintry mix or combination of both but at the very least, we should see a healthy burst of colder temperatures beginning Friday February 7th and extending through the weekend.

Wetter outlook Saturday night but general outlook for the next two weeks still has room for plenty of cautious optimism

The moral of our weekend story was that we needed this upcoming storm to track inland but not too far inland. Without the support of a fresh supply of cold, we are walking the proverbial tightrope and we need an optimal storm track, along with a few other things to ensure a snowy result. Low pressure, expected to develop in the Delaware Valley Saturday and regenerate what is a rather pathetic looking storm system, is now expected to move northeast over New Hampshire which is a bit too far north for our liking. With more cold air in place this would be totally fine but we are without it right now and  too much warmth  will get sucked into much of Vermont late Saturday, enough to turn to the forecast more rainy and icy (at least in that period).

It is important to note how fluid this situation is and how close it is. There is critical layer of the lower troposphere, between 3,000-7,000 feet that will get impacted by this influx of warmth late on Saturday. As the event commences in the MRV however, this layer is indicated to cool and support quite possibly support a period of decent snow if the precipitation intense enough. Without the intensity though, precipitation will fall as rain or freezing rain Saturday night. Temperatures will also be warmer than I had hoped, even across the high country. The best we can hope for is a bit of gloppy snow Saturday night with temperatures hovering around the freezing mark.

There is a sizable jet stream level cold pool that will enhance instability and turn the precipitation type to snow as Sunday progresses. Given the forecast changes already discussed, the ski day Sunday certainly looks gloppier or perhaps even slushier in the morning, but snow showers and colder temperatures will prevail over the high country during the afternoon even as valley areas remain above freezing. Those snow showers will continue into the overnight and into Monday and accumulations should be very elevation sensitive. In these types of setups, wind direction becomes critical. Northwest flow is better for us and west flow is better for the likes of Stowe and Jay Peak. Right now the prevailing wind direction appears more westerly, shifting to the northwest by early Monday. The snow showers will produce snowfall accumulations of 4 to as much as 12 inches above 2000 feet but the 12 inches is more likely from Stowe northward with the 4 inches more likely for Sugarbush and Mad River Glen. The forecast change has really negatively effected southern Vermont which isn't likely to see much of any snow through the weekend.

Yeah this is a bit of a downer but the snow outlook in general is at least hopeful. We've more or less eliminated the risk of any substantial thaw for the final week of January and an important area of modified chill should impact Vermont in the final two days of the month (Thursday/Friday) ahead of what could be an interesting first few days or maybe week of February. More specifically speaking, snow showers from the weekend storm will linger into Monday and even Monday night along with relatively mild near-30 degree readings on the hill (upper 30's in the valley). The Tuesday though Friday period appears dry but again it appears mostly sub-freezing.

I genuinely enjoy the R&B tune by Sade, "No Ordinary Love". That said, the song pops into my head looking at the teleconnection outlook for the next few weeks and not in a great way. There's no ordinary love from the Arctic Oscillation, no ordinary love from the EPO or pacific jet and not much ordinary love from the NAO either. If you just look at the various ensembles at face value however, the first 10 days of February could have all sorts of ordinary love. Yes the fundamentals would advise some caution, but the forecast data suggests a strong enough ridge across the west coast and a lot of potential for multiple jet amplifications, big jet amplifications along the east coast. There is big storm potential, again with only marginal cold air support in the February 1-2 period  and later in the February 6-8 period. Worth watching and hoping as it all sorts itself out.

Weekend storm much more likely to deliver for the high country without the help any arctic cold

Though the polar jet continues to show no signs of providing any help for the rest of January, the forecast has improved led mainly by a much better outlook regarding our weekend storm. The week will finish as expected with sunshine on Thursday boosting temperatures on the mountain to near 30 with the same being said for Friday except with the addition of some high clouds. The pattern for the rest of January will allow Vermont to enjoy a bit of "southern Rocky Mountains" winter weather. Cold nights, comfortable afternoons, some elevation sensitive snowfall and only a minimal amount of wind. Very atypical for Vermont in January but I am delighted for this outcome as opposed to a 2nd bad January thaw.

The weekend storm is anchored by a vigorous upper level jet stream feature that is expected to spin east-northeastward, just north of the Ohio River valley Friday. The initial surface storm will never successfully attain a significant amount of moisture before it occludes over Illinois and Indiana, but an influx of Atlantic Ocean moisture into the storm on Saturday will give this system a 2nd life over the northeast. Most importantly, the track of this regenerated storm has shifted inland which represents a massive improvement for us. We had two asks with this storm 1) The above-mentioned coastal regeneration capable of providing the moisture 2) An optimal "inland" but not too far inland track allowing Vermont to ascertain this moisture without accompanying warm air. These were tough asks, especially given the lack of available cold, but we are asking and it looks a lot better that we shall be receiving beginning Saturday afternoon. Ultimately this will evolve and become a "vertically stacked" storm meaning that the upper low will move directly over the surface storm. These situations create a very elevation sensitive dynamic. Snowfall accumulations, snow consistency, perhaps for a small period - precipitation type and certainly temperature will all be dependent on elevation. We should receive a decent burst of snow Saturday evening and then a lot of elevation sensitive snow Sunday, Sunday night and into early Monday. If the outlook for the storm can settle on the current consensus, snowfall totals will likely be less than 6 inches total for the low lying valley areas but over a foot across the high country. The snow consistency will also be pretty gloppy in these low lying areas but drier and more powdery above 2000 feet. This outlook is also likely to change somewhat so stay tuned.

As mentioned, we aren't expecting either a lot of wind or a lot of cold in the wake of this storm Monday. Temperatures will stay in the sub-freezing category but only by a few degrees on both Monday and Tuesday afternoons. Models have been flirting with the notion of a one day thaw in the mid-week period and this is in association with a storm system that has threatened to track well into Canada after originating in the southern plains. Fortunately, models have backed off this idea and this would leave Vermont with more of the same - above normal temperatures but not above normal enough to create problems for us. Midweek precipitation is still certainly possible (in some form) but this remains a wait and see situation given model volatility.

There have been hints of a more substantial jet amplification over eastern North America, Superbowl weekend. The polar jet is still glaringly absent and this leaves the door open for some adverse scenarios; that said, there are fruitful possibilities that are also in play.  There are no improvements on the horizon regarding any blocking in the Arctic or weakening of the jet in the Pacific but some cold air is expected to invade in the wake of our hypothetical Superbowl storm. This would ensure at least seasonable temperatures during most of the first full week of February.

We got a 1 in 3 chance for some decent weekend snows but I woudn't be taking anything to the bank with this upcoming pattern

About 2 feet of snow over the past several days propelled us to another successful MLK weekend as bluebird weather carries us to the finish line. There are times when Vermont can experience long stretches of time with predominantly cloudy conditions. In the case of this week, storminess off the southeast coastline and later over Texas will help promote a sustained stretch sunshine and excellent visibility. Tuesday will be on the chilly side but that aforementioned sunshine and minimal wind will allow 15 degrees to feel relatively comfortable. Another dose of sunshine on Wednesday will push temperatures well into the 20's followed by a Thursday/Friday where we might touch the freezing mark. Don't expect any new snow through the rest of the week but we won't lose much of what has fallen in recent days, especially across the high country.

In spite of the upcoming stretch of sunny dry weather, the pattern across the lower part of North America will be pretty active. The activity will not have much support from the polar jet however which will retreat deep into Canada for the rest of January. New snowfall remains possible between January 25th and the end of the month but with every possible storm we will only have a limited amount of cold weather to work with and will be heavily dependent on an optimal storm path and favorable storm maturation process. The upcoming weekend will present us with the first such scenario as a storm advances from the lower Mississippi Valley to the northeast coast. The absence of the polar jet will allow the storm to move slowly and it is expected to mature well in advance of a potential impact. I am thus and have been a bit skeptical of this system, but forecast models have been moving in the right direction over the past day or two and are suggesting at least something late Saturday into Sunday (Jan 26). I would quantify the various possibilities (roughly speaking) into thirds. 33 percent chance we miss out on the event entirely, 33 percent chance of a minimal 1-4 inch impact and a 33 percent chance for something more significant. Embedded within that "significance" outcome is some serious upside because the storm will be moving slow enough to drop some big accumulations.

Temperatures are expected to moderate back into the "above normal" zone by the end of the week and pretty much stay there for the remainder of the month. The impact of any potential storm during the upcoming weekend will be accompanied by readings in the 20's or low 30's and this should continue in the wake of such a storm. Though we could get a few above freezing afternoons between the 25th and 31st, there are no glaring indications of a major thaw. There are however indications of another storm sometime around the middle of the week. Again, we will need a few of those same things (mentioned above) to go right to score additional snowfall. We are enjoying the benefits of the coldest climatological part of the winter which provides us with a little room to maneuver through a less than optimal pattern. It's not a lot of room though and mixed precipitation or a bit of the "R" word is not out of the question next week.

In the end,  the pattern never did fully flip to a fully optimal scenario and is not expected to through early February. It could remain "good enough" to keep the good times rolling but the AO is expected to remain positive indicating a relatively unblocked arctic. The AO has been positive for much of December and January with the exception of about 1 week. The same can be said for the EPO which is an index measuring, indirectly the strength of eastern Pacific jet stream. It did, as expected, turn negative over the past week but not as much as was initially expected and is now expected to resume what has been a largely positive posture for much of this winter season. The NAO has been a similar story. For the time being I am taking solace in the fact that though the pattern appears a little short of optimal, it is expected to remain out of that disastrous zone. The door will be open (with the storm this weekend for instance) for a few really solid days. Happy MLK day.

One storm down and another on the way, just in time for the weekend honoring MLK !

Suddenly you were gone

From all the lives you left your mark upon

I remember, 

The shouts of joy

Skiing fast through the woods 

I hear the echoes

I learned your love of life

I feel the way that you would 

I feel your presence

I remember...

Of the many written tributes to Neil, my favorite might be the one by Bret Stephens in the New York Times a few days ago. Though I have taken issue with Mr. Stephens on many of his opinions relating to climate change or environmental policy, I thought this was really on the mark. There are so many different life settings where some Neil Peart  lyric pops into my head. The song above "Afterimage"which is a lesser known track off the Grace Under Pressure album deals with the emotions of "loss" but uses a setting very familiar to us. Speaking of the environment, Neil also wrote many environmentally cognizant songs yet routinely brought folks of varying opinions into his music and concerts. These days you have to respect that.

One storm down and another on the way and just in time for a weekend honoring MLK and that's about as far as my poetry skills can take me I am sorry to say. Some very early blue sky and temperatures around -10 Saturday morning will give way to clouds. The latest indications are that we shouldn't see much snow during the ski day Saturday but with winds subsiding to 5-15 mph, it will feel much more tolerable on the hill, especially in the afternoon when actual temps rise into the teens. The snow should begin between 4-6 PM. This is a very garden variety event for us. The storm will pass to our north but the threat of a warm-up is eliminated thanks to an occlusion. Look like a solid 4-8 inch storm Saturday night with some additional snow showers Sunday bringing another 1-3. Sunday will be blustery and a little chilly but nothing like this past Friday. Readings will actually be fairly close to normal.

I am not entirely thrilled with the way the pattern appears to be evolving though it certainly doesn't appear terrible - perhaps just mediocre. The week beginning MLK day begins an extended dry period that should take us through Friday. Should be a few sunny days in that stretch and through Thursday we should be able to keep readings well below freezing but also well out of the "intolerable-range". Storminess off the Carolina coastline should help keep the northeast in a general area of "sinking air" and though more clouds are possible Wednesday night into Thursday. The snowfall outlook is on the low side. My disappointment in the pattern relates to the eastern Pacific. We just have not been able to keep that jet stream in check this year. Basically, when the stream is consolidated and flowing in a fast west to east trajectory over that longitudinal region, it can overload the western US with unsettled weather and act as a blockade for any southward advancing arctic air in Canada.

This situation doesn't appear dire however, just not ideal. The jet stream in the eastern Pacific will be strong enough to keep the EPO positive but not very positive. At the same time the southern branch of the stream appears strong enough to prevent any sustainable above-freezing weather. The outlook has moved in a warmer direction and this ensures that January 2020 will be one of the warmest Jan's in 14 years but there are no indications of another highly damaging thaw. The temperatures outlook has certainly warmed late in the upcoming week but modified polar chill is expected to push back somewhat during the last weekend in January. This happens just as the storm threat rises next weekend. The possible outcomes with this storm are still many and one of those outcomes is a total miss. Any storm next weekend also shouldn't be the last chance for snow in January. The pattern does still appear capable of giving us another chance of something before we turn the calendar to February.