Think Snow, Tweet Snow !!!

Monday, February 13, 2012

3 precipitation producers in the next week should keep it interesting

It hardly looks like the ideal weather pattern but it will be an active one with plenty to blog about over the next week or so including three potential weather producers. Its still a few days from our first shot for snow and we have already seen most of the cold from the past weekend move out. Clouds should keep temperatures close to the freezing mark both Tuesday and Wednesday and flurries or a period of light snow could fall from those clouds later Tuesday into Tuesday night. Any sun on Thursday will also give way to clouds in advance of the first discussion-worthy system. This storm has very little cold air to work with but its attempt at making a run up the St Lawrence Valley will get thwarted when the Atlantic Coast, as it often does, magnetically pulls much of the system's energy to the coast. This process is one of the reasons why interior New England can be such an ideal location for snow from east coast storms. At least that is the case during most years.

Precipitation should begin as snow but with temperatures within a few degrees of freezing it could be on the gloppy side at lower elevations. Snow should continue into Friday morning with accumulations in the 4-8 inch range. Glop or powder, the snow will obviously be very welcome prior to what is a big holiday weekend. The "Ski the East" boys are looking to do the Unconventional Terrain Competition this Saturday so hopefully the Friday morning event is enough to make that a success.

A less aggressive east coast trough amplification this weekend will ensure seasonable temperatures through President's day. There is also a clipper system rotating through the Great Lakes which could provide at least a light accumulation of snow Saturday night into Sunday morning. This would be the soft bigotry of low expectations. It is worth mentioning "The Gulf", the buildup of moisture down there and what could ultimately result in a storm riding up the east coast. The storm would be advancing up the coast as the clipper is spreading its limited clouds and moisture in to the northeast. The general consensus is still to take this system too far away from the coast for a big interior New England hit. Its worth keeping an eye on though.

In the wake of this strengthening storm (offshore or not) we should see a reenforcing shot of cold for Sunday and Monday and some of the better skiing of the season. The AO however will be neutralized by early next week and with the emergence of a large "La Nina-like" Gulf of Alaska upper ridge, much of the best action will shift into the west. The first weather system that results from this pattern could therefore be a rough one for us with ice and rain included in the package. In past years however we have seen these patterns go both ways. Some have been a debacle consisting of rain and warm weather. Others have actually been quite good with some of the best snow falling over Vermont. We can guarantee that the skiing will quite bad further south as very warm weather could grip a large portion of the Mid-Atlantic and Southeast.

1 comment:

Jim said...

It's good to see you back in top form Josh, after arguably your most despondent post ever last time. Looks like Friday is a winner!