At the very least, I hope we are at the beginning of a long stretch void of any rain. We are expecting above-freezing temperatures Monday but we should keep this short streak alive as temperatures for the remainder of the week return to seasonable levels without rain. It has been an annoying habit on the blog to keep pushing back the next chance for snow. We won't do that this time which is a moral victory of sorts. What looks to be the most pathetic of disturbances will undercut the large western ridge and bring moisture into New England Thursday. This occurs just prior to when the Polar Vortex across Canada makes its southward descent into the United States. The weak weather system Thursday is nothing you can take to the bank but could provide the region with 1-4 inches. The arrival of the Polar Vortex also brings the chance for snow but this too is uncertain. If the PV progresses slow enough it can allow time for its associated clipper system to interact with the Atlantic, strengthen and spread more significant snows to both the Green and White Mountains in the Friday/Saturday time frame. If it makes a rapid descent, it will simply overwhelm the pattern and suppress any storm development. We would thus see only a period of snow showers before it turns bitterly cold for the weekend. Models have been provided a variety of answers to these questions but its nice to see two chances for at least some powder in the 2/9-2/11 time frame.
Beyond next weekend marked an even more uncertain time as indicated in the last update. The American GFS Ensemble indicating cold the European Ensemble back to warm. Both packages however showed the all important very negative AO. As of the current update both continue to show the negative NAO and have added a little more clarity in the form of a compromise. The bitterly cold temperatures that should dominate for the weekend will give way to yet another warm-up in the Monday the 13th to Wednesday the 15th time frame. The warmer temperatures could prove to be a another perilous stretch but it should be temporary as the support of both the AO and NAO should allow for the return of both colder temperatures and snow to return for the President's Day holiday.
That is all for now, enjoy the Super Bowl, it should be a good one.