Think Snow, Tweet Snow !!!

Tuesday, February 28, 2012

Upcoming storm will produce two powder days late this week

Now I understand town meeting day is a week from now (if I am not mistaken) so perhaps take a day Thursday or Friday and trade it for a few hours next Tuesday. This will be a storm we will want a piece of and not just because it is a nice looking system. The storm will precede a rough stretch of weather at MRG. It is in the best tradition of La Nina to produce an epic day and follow it up a few days later with big trouble.

The upcoming storm is not necessarily a well-organized, particularly intense, or clean looking system. Ultimately, like many garden variety northeast storms, there will be two low pressure center's. One system which intensifies off the Atlantic Coast and another gradually diminishing but nonetheless notable storm in the Great Lakes. The two will work together, kinda, to produce a long west-to-east overrunning zone. This overrunning surface is the key to this storm and it will act as the centerpiece for a moist conveyor which should cover interior New England for an extended period of time.

Radar Wednesday should show snow inching its way toward MRG but it will take its time in getting here. By evening, the flakes should start flying and will gradually intensify to occasionally moderate snow after dark. By Thursday morning we should have 3-5 inches to show for our efforts while snow continues for a good part of the day and even into Thursday evening and Thursday night. By Friday morning Snowfall totals should be in the 10-15 inch range. If I were to pick a day to ski, it would be Friday. Winds are not expected to be particularly strong Thursday but they will be out of the east and historically that has caused some issues on the Single. On Friday winds will diminish and the snow will diminish to a few flurries. I am sure both days will be winners no matter what is open and what isn't.

So I gave the good news first so now here is the rest. We have managed to keep it winter-like across Vermont for the past week even as the rest of the eastern seaboard enjoys a continuation of what has been a very mild winter. On Friday however, a storm will gather strength in the middle Mississippi Valley and make a huge charge northward. Consequently, mild air will also make a huge push northward out ahead of this storm. Temperatures may sneak above freezing Friday afternoon but I am not too worried about that. By Saturday however clouds and precipitation (not the good kind) will return to MRG. We may retain enough surface cold air to produce a period of freezing rain but that's about it. Eventually we are going to see some rain and temperatures that reach the 40's during the day Saturday. The cold front associated with this storm is a sharp one and winter will return Sunday along with snow showers. The instability in the wake of this system could allow for a light terrain induced accumulation Monday and then readings should stay below freezing through Wednesday morning.

Ensembles are starting to key in on a major thaw for the middle and back half of next week. We still have a little time to escape some of this but has the potential to be a real crusher with record breaking temperatures, maybe even 60's. The thaw would then culminate with a rain event later in the week. Also a crusher.

The moral of the story is pretty self explanatory. Get a piece of this storm !!

No comments: