Think Snow, Tweet Snow !!!

Monday, February 6, 2012

You can't spell "Elite" without E-L-I but its time to focus on spelling out the word "Snow"

It was another terrific Pats vs Giants Super Bowl and a thrilling victory for the G-Men. A few bounces here, a less banged up tight end there and things could be different so I solute the Patriots for a great season and a great effort. For a while there, I thought they had the Giants "D" figured out. All that said, Eli needs to get the credit he deserves. Yeah he has some great receivers to throw to, but the whole "Awww Shucks" thing everyone gets on him for serves him well. He has the uncanny ability to shake off all the pressure and make big throw after big throw no matter the gravity of the situation.

So the Giants did their part, it is now mother nature's turn. Let me preface the following by stating that I am going to only remain cautiously optimistic since selling my soul to powdery forecast has done nothing for us. We are finally in the throws of a generally favorable high latitude blocking pattern but we continue to wait for the snow. We had alluded to a weaker disturbance that had the potential to freshen things up for Thursday but this will slide innocently to the south. Temperatures with the help of sunshine, will exceed the freezing mark for a few hours both Thursday and Friday afternoons

That brings us to the weekend and the big southward advance of the Polar Vortex. To a weathergeek like me, anything with the word "vortex" is going to be exciting, so I consider the "PV" to be a fun topic of conversation. In the two days since the last update I had hoped we could better sort the picture out this weekend. We have made a little progress but uncertainty remains. Generally speaking the Euro still shows a softer PV invasion and as a result, a clipper system is able to get some traction with moisture from the Atlantic Ocean and spread snow across interior New England Saturday. The American model shows the PV overwhelming the region resulting in a very cold but generally drier forecast. I am more inclined to side with the Euro on this although not wholeheartedly. This would mean our next chance for accumulating snow is Saturday.

A second impulse Sunday could bring another round of snow showers but it will be remembered more for triggering the southward advance of what is likely to be the coldest weather of the season. Bitterly cold temperatures is typically the end result of any intimate relationship that develops between New England and a Polar Vortex and this should be no exception. Temperatures of 15 or 20 below zero Sunday night or Monday is not out of the question.

The longer range outlook has improved slightly. We should see a significant temperature moderation by the middle of next week but the pattern looks significantly more active. This includes two potential precipitation producers in the period between the 14th and 18th of the month. Although the AO is expected to remain negative the ridge/trough axis across North America will shift west. It will resemble a fairly typical La Nina set up but I am hoping the support of the AO on the favorable side of what could be a succession of storms.

No "kiss of deathing" allowed in the comments section !!! Lets keep it clean ;)

1 comment:

Jahey said...

Ok Josh,
We've tried the snow dance....
And we've also tried the snow trance.....
It's time to give winter a chance
Can it not be...just a passing glance??? :):)

Get your igloos ready for Sunday PM!!