Think Snow, Tweet Snow !!!

Tuesday, March 11, 2014

15-30 inches from big mid-week storm - No place better than northern VT

This storm belongs to us. We've watched many go south and a few go north, but there is no place better than the northern half of Vermont along with the Adirondacks late Wednesday into Thursday. This is the Delaware Valley to Boston express, a storm track we have not seen to much of the last few seasons but a good one for MRG and surroundings. The storm will also go through its maturation at an opportune time, right over the Ohio Valley and then bomb off the New England coast early Thursday to the tune of sub-980 mb. This would make it the strongest of the season to-date. The latest round of info has actually trended the track of the storm farther, north although not a lot. One of the results of this is that a small above-freezing layer in the atmosphere (~10,000 - 12,000 ft up) will push into central Vermont and well into New Hampshire. The Weather Channel's own and Vermont native Jim Cantore announced via twitter that he is going to Killington. This most assuredly means that the sleet will follow him but go no further ;)

Anyway, the snow should begin in the form of flurries early Wednesday, within an hour or so of lift opening. Through about 11 am, the snowfall won't be too substantial, but by around noon, snow should pick up and begin to fall heavily by early afternoon. The last few hours of the ski day promises to be fun with 1-2 inch snowfall rates and this would persist into the evening. I have heard some grumbling around town about fear of a sierra cement storm. Understandable since temperatures Tuesday soared to near 40 on the mountain and beyond that in the valley. In the initial hours of the storm, the snowfall could be a touch wet at the base as temperatures hover around the 30-32 degree mark, the summit should readings stay in the 20's however which would help the snow consistency. As the storm makes its transition to the coast Wednesday night, the region should see some of the heaviest snowfall of the season with a few hours of potentially 3-inch an hour snowfall rates along with the possibility of thunder. We are in some of the best frontogenetic environment of the season during this period between about 9 PM Wed and 1 AM Thursday, so if your a weather fanatic, be ready !! It is possible, that if we see a relative "lull" in the snowfall rate earlier Wednesday evening, some sleet could mix in but I don't think it have a material impact on the overall storm since whatever falls out of this will be minimal. Back to the snow consistency - temperatures will nosedive later Wednesday evening with the heaviest snow falling while readings are in the teens. This is not a sierra cement event, although because of the wind, the density of the snow will be higher and exposed areas of the mountain will get wind packed. Nothing we aren't used to.

Snow should continue through a good part of Thursday but at a lesser intensity. Temperatures will be brutally cold for mid-march, hovering in the single numbers on a good part of the mountain. Wind speeds will be strong but out of the north and northwest Thursday, a friendly direction for the MRG lifts. Accumulations will range between 15-30 inches as a whole. If we do get a brief period sleet, it will have the effect of compressing some of the already fallen snow and thus I don't want to get too crazy with snowfall amounts, as exciting as the storm looks. In addition, it will be a tough storm to accurately measure because of all the wind.

Temperatures will moderate somewhat Friday thanks to some limited sun although mornings temps will be sub-zero (again). Snow returns on Saturday as a clipper should provide a light "after dinner drink" of sorts with a few inches possible. More cold weather returns for Sunday and Monday. There are not many signs of a major warm-up thereafter and I think the remainder of March will be on the below side of average. Considering the time of year, many of the afternoons could see temperatures above freezing depending on the day but no signs of a eminent melt down. I expect more in the way of snow along with this and potentially another big storm, time will tell.

Get after it late this week but as always be safe


Jonathan Nadeau said...

Fingers crossed

Becky Castle said...

woo hooo!!! Thanks for the great news, Josh. I'm crossing my fingers and getting my skis ready.