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Friday, March 21, 2014

Some snow and lots of cold for next 5 days but finally hints at some spring warmth on the horizon

Friday's snowfall brings the mountain to the 200-inch benchmark for the season. March has been nothing short of tremendous. We have yet to receive a drop of rain and have nearly 50 inches of new snow to play in. Saturday's storm track has moved north since the last update and it puts the mountain at the bottom edge of some of the best moisture which appears a bit more limited. Snow should begin around 9 AM Saturday morning and persist through a good part of the ski day. Total snowfall should be in the 3-5 inch range by Saturday evening.

The very impressive outbreak of late-March cold arrives for Sunday sending temperatures back into the teens and then back below zero Sunday night. More snow showers are possible for Sunday adding to the light accumulation from Saturday. The 25-30 degree below normal temperatures will solidify March of 2014 as one of the coldest in the last 100 years for interior New England. Records and statistics aside, the cold has been axiomatic as much of the state has added to snow depths this month as opposed to seeing any significant melt.

There has been a considerable amount of chatter regarding a storm in the middle of next week. As each day passes, it appears as if the storm is a threat mainly for the Mid-Atlantic states along with coastal New England. The storm will have an inverted trough (as some call it) that will progress east along its northern flank and may spread some snow into Vermont and New Hampshire on Tuesday night into Wednesday, but the snow appears to be light in nature. Mainly the Monday-Wednesday time frame will be cold. Depending on cloud cover, temperatures may struggle to reach 20 all three days.

There is finally some significant signs of a major shift in the overall pattern and one that would lead to the first substantial thaw of the spring season. Part of it can be attributed to the NAO which will shift into positive territory. Most of it however appears to be related to energy in the jet stream that is anticipated to be trapped across the mountain-west late next week. Temperatures will begin to moderate Thursday slightly but more so Friday. A storm system around the 30th may thwart part of this warm-up but ultimately there will be some very warm days toward the end of the month and into early April. The mountain has not seen anything close to 50 since the January thaw more than two months ago and certainly hasn't sniffed 60 since autumn. This stretch of warmth, which should peak very early in April will probably allow readings to eclipse both marks and finally provide the region with spring thaw and some spring skiing.

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