We have yet to completely resolve the missing picture regarding our big midweek event but we gotten considerably closer. At the very least, we have a general sense of how things may play out in terms of timing and we can tighten the range a bit on potential snowfall. In the meantime, Vermont has enjoyed somewhat closer to normal temperatures in the last few days and this should continue for the next few. Interior New England will be in the transition zone, so to speak, between much milder temperatures to the south and a continuation of very cold weather which will continue to dominate much of Quebec through Tuesday. Weaker weather systems Sunday night and Monday night should deposit a few inches of snow. Monday should feature 1-3 inches of new snow at the beginning of the ski day with temperatures inching toward the freezing mark during the long March afternoon thanks to a few glimpses of sunshine. The Tuesday ski day will feature an additional 2-5 inches of snow thanks to a a period of the good stuff Monday night. The daytime hours should again see temperatures either at or above the freezing mark as milder air continues to fight for complete control of Vermont weather.
The battle between warm and cold culminates in the big midweek snow event. The storm begins its progression across the U.S. Sunday and begins to digest polar jet energy late Tuesday into Wednesday. It is this general clash of warm vs cold, moisture from the Pacific storm and polar jet energy which will create the magic. The storm will intensify in the Ohio Valley and track toward the east coast Wednesday night. The critical question relates to the how this storm metabolizes the aforementioned polar jet energy. Its an ingredient we very much need but don't want too much of, since we don't want this storm overwhelmed and suppressed to our south. The European model and its ensembles have locked into a solution that would essentially bring us 2-3 feet of snow Wednesday into Thursday and actually bring some wintry mix into central Vermont during the event. Canadian and American models are now both on board with the event but they show the storms maturation mitigated by the polar jet somewhat. Both of these solutions suggest a more garden variety 6-12 inch event. A compromise of all these solutions works just fine by me and would include a 1-2 foot storm and epic powder day Thursday into Friday. The timing of the snow would include a start time of midday Wednesday with the heaviest snow occurring during the overnight into early Thursday.
Another burst of extremely cold weather follows the storm. It includes temperatures hovering near 10 during the day Thursday along with brutally cold wind chills as the storm is winding down, and sub zero readings Friday morning. The weekend will normalize but there is a legitimate shot at a follow-up storm late in the weekend that could deliver more significant snows prior to "green beer" day. The week of the 17th through the 21st looks chilly to start but potentially somewhat mild to finish. There is some "evil empire" mischief in the Pacific that should result in a thaw across much of the U.S. between the 19th and 23rd of the month but I am not so sure if that mild air is going to reach Vermont for an elongated stretch. It could prove to be a challenge which would be consistent with my thoughts of a very, very gradual arrival of spring.