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Tuesday, March 25, 2014

Some spring thawing is finally eminent beginning late this week

The big noreaster swirling off the New England coast did not provide the fireworks we hoped it would but this wasn't entirely unexpected. Meanwhile, unusually intense late-season cold is keeping the mountain quite frozen. We saw widespread sub zero temperatures Tuesday morning and we should see more of the same Thursday morning before temperatures finally take a late-day run at the freezing mark. The exiting cold will allow a more spring-like weather and temperature regime to commence over the mountain. There will be extended periods, beginning Friday, of above freezing temperatures thus allowing for the significant amounts of March snow to corn up and soften quite nicely. This being said, the warm weather does not appear to be particularly anomalous nor does it appear to be as significant as what I had advertised a few days ago. Nonetheless, it will mark the first significant shift toward spring-like weather on the mountain and most notably, will provide the opportunity for the "R" word to re-enter the vocabulary. 

Incredibly, the mountain has only touched 40-degrees one time this month which is quite an achievement in March and would be noteworthy even in January and February. Friday will be the second such day. Model data is suggesting that clouds would keep temperatures in the 40's but a few hours of sunshine could certainly boost readings to 50 near the base.  The extensive cloudiness and numerous weather systems over the next week is the big reason why the mild weather will be mitigated verses some of my own earlier expectations. A weather system Friday will weaken as it makes its approach late in the day but will bring a period of light rain to the mountain anyway. Temperatures will remain above freezing (high 30's or low 40's)  throughout Saturday underneath more cloudiness. Another and stronger storm system will then approach from the southwest and promises to bring more rain Saturday night which could end as some wet snow Sunday morning. 

The weather continues to look mild through the early part of the week with at least two days of 45 and perhaps one of these above 50. Another storm system could spread rain into the region Tuesday which yet again could end as some wet snow before colder weather arrives for the middle of the week. The break in the cold can somewhat be attributed to a huge surge in the AO index (The NAO also made a less significant surge). The index of both of these teleconnection indices is expected to be neutralized and perhaps even go negative by the first weekend in April. This would provide a brief window where we could see another round of wintry weather. Overall though, the thaw will finally be on across interior New England after one of the coldest month of March in half a century. 


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