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Thursday, January 29, 2015

BC Bomber turned Gulf of Maine bomber should bring a nice dose of Friday powder

This nice little BC Bomber type system should serve us quite well on Friday and provide the mountain with a nice powder day. We haven't seen too many events like this over the past few seasons but they do occur frequently and produce positive results just as frequently. Light snow should overspread the region Thursday night as the relatively benign low pressure system approaches. As the storm interacts with the relative warmth of the Gulf of Maine, it will intensify quite rapidly and precipitation will enhance along the northern and western flank of the deepening system. The high country of the Green Mountains will also get aided by terrain effects and a nice fetch of moisture from the fast flow off Lake Champlain. Flow which should enhance late in the morning and continue through the day and into Friday night. It's not incredibly unstable so I don't expect huge amounts of snow, but another 5-10 is reasonable on top of the approximately 5 we got on throwback day is not too shabby.


Light snow or flurries continue into a very cold Saturday. We've had a few days this week and this month where temperatures have struggle to climb above zero and Saturday will be another one of those days. Blustery northwest winds will keep wind chills in the vicinity of 20 below throughout the day. Sunday will be the more comfortable of the two weekend days with temperatures recovering back into the low teens along with relatively calm winds.


We've been watching Monday's potential weather system for some time now and the plethora of models that have been released over the last 24 hours have all taken this system further south by a few hundred miles. This keeps snowfall well to the region's south and this scenario would allow cold to overwhelm the region once again early in the week. I am not completely selling my soul to this idea just yet given how poorly the medium range models have performed this winter but would not be surprised by it either. The polar jet is back in a big way early in the week and it's proximity to New England will have the capability of shunting any nearby weather systems eastward. This same "PJ" can bring a clipper system into the region for the middle of the week before more cold arrives around the 5th or 6th of February.


There are signs beyond February 8th or so of a significant temperature moderation and at least a temporary reconfiguration of the long-wave or jet stream pattern. I think the teleconnection indices, particularly the NAO/AO strongly support the receding of the polar jet in this time frame but I do not at all buy into the idea of a significant warm-up for February. The Pacific- Decadal Oscillation and the continued presence of warm water across the Gulf of Alaska and the west coast of North America in general will make it extremely difficult for any upper trough to gain  a persistent foothold. This means any temperature moderation across New England would be slight as opposed to dramatic and that the door should be wide open for potential snow events. In short, I think we can look forward to a good month of February with plenty of excitement.



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