Humbled and a bit embarrassed, yet full of exciting news. This is a pattern loaded with potential and in two updates a potential storm was discussed in the upcoming Monday/Tuesday time frame. Yet, I totally threw in the towel this past Thursday as it looked like the polar jet would do a "squash job" on a promising looking storm. This aforementioned polar jet is expected to be a little softer early in the upcoming week. It's such a subtle difference but oh so critical. The clipper system Sunday is expected to dive into the Midwest as expected and then begin evolve into a monster coastal system near Cape Hatteras. The polar jet would be capable of providing the westerlies necessary to drive a strengthening nor'easter out over the ocean but the jet a bit weaker and a bit farther north (verses expectations a few days ago), this storm can do its thing.
I have alluded to the erratic performance of the models this winter and this event underscores that point. That and models continue to "evolve" in regards to the handling of this event. Intensity, track and the eventual precipitation field have all been altered dramatically over the last 24-36 hours. This being said, the "evolution" may continue and expectations will need to be refined after the next few cycles of model simulations. Snow is a lot more likely at MRG for Tuesday but I am not ready to guarantee a huge dump yet, at the very least though some snow is likely.
From Cape Hatteras, the storm is expected to explode later Monday and get sucked toward Cape Cod. If this does indeed go down this way, and the low does indeed deepen to sub-980 mb, as the lastest pieces of info have suggested, snow will move into the area early Tuesday and become heavy for several hours. The snow would be accompanied by wind, cold temperatures and treacherous road conditions. Though there is data supporting a 10-20 inch dump, and yes I think that can certainly happen, I want to caution my fellow powderhounds. We could see some additional changes. We could still see less than 10 and yes, we could see more than 20. Lets wait another 24 hours and see how things look. I also want to point out that this system could become a nor'easter of historic significance for portions of the northeast. Eastern Mass, Rhode Island, Connecticut even New York city could memorable snowfall totals and the biggest storm in a few years.
I'll have more on the long range in a subsequent update, but temperatures will be cold in the wake of the storm during the middle of the week. A clipper dives to the region's south Thursday. This is a potent little system and though it could confine most of its impact to locations south of us we could see at least a light accumulation. Flurries and snow showers follow for Friday and perhaps into Saturday the 31st ahead of a more major jet amplification late in the weekend. Models for several days bring the full ferocity of the polar jet, possibly even the whole polar vortex over the eastern Great Lakes for early February. Extremely cold weather and possibly some snow out in front of all that Sunday is possible. The cold would linger through February 4th or 5th before receding allowing for a slow moderation.