February finished mild but the outlook for March has turned abruptly colder

 Our February weekend finale could have been rainier, as it was along parts of the southern New England coastline, but the mild air arrived in a big way. It was a classic mixdown situation late Saturday where gusty winds took some of the mild air aloft and brought it right to the surface, destroying any inversion and bringing temperatures up toward the 50-degree mark in some low lying areas. After a very minimal amount of rain early Monday, a typical early March tumultuous ride on the weather train commences. Colder arctic air will push southeast and for a period of time between Monday afternoon and the very early morning hours Tuesday we will be presented with some of the best low level instability of the winter season. We have the right wind direction off a partially unfrozen Lake Champlain as well and it argues for an excellent terrain enhanced snow shower situation late Monday into early Tuesday and some decent powder for the ski day Tuesday. Some of the computer models have responded accordingly but the high resolution data that is typically best at picking up on these scenarios is only producing limited snowfall, essentially showing that some low level dry air is negating the intense instability. Normally I would be fairly excited about this setup but I want to be respectful of the data as opposed to trying convince readers I am smarter than the computer. 2-5 inches is thus my guess for snowfall late Monday into early Tuesday. The potential is there for more but the aforementioned high res data is showing more like 1-3 so I am compromising. 

The roller coaster ride then begins with a very cold day Tuesday with temperatures remaining in the teens followed by a much milder Wednesday with readings eclipsing the freezing mark. There is a clipper system in between the two days that could bring a small accumulation to the MRV and is much more likely to do that north of I89. The outlook thereafter and more generally has trended colder and is making several forecasters look very foolish since many were absolutely convinced it would torch in March. I am not naming names nor am I implying anything disparaging about their weather forecasting abilities but they were very confident it would be warm in March and it does not at all look mild for our first weekend of the month. After temperatures eclipse the freezing mark on Wednesday we are likely to begin a stretch of almost a week with readings staying sub-30 on the mountain. Can we score the elusive big storm or any kind of snow producing system ? This is still a tougher ask right now the pattern looks dry. The southern streamer late Wednesday into Thursday appears out of phase with the polar jet and the trough axis appears too far east when it eventually gets cold late in the week. We can hope for instability induced snow showers, a very common occurrence in the months of March/April during cold setups but the risk of a big storm appears small.

As mentioned, the colder sub-freezing stretch of temperatures is likely to persist through March 9th, making the GFS and it's ensemble members look very foolish. Spring-like temperatures continue to look possible for a short time between March 10th and 12th but the data is not supporting the notion that winter undergoes a major retreat. In fact, it will be the Pacific, a pesky nuisance all season which will undergo some changes beyond the 10th of the month and slow the advance of Spring in the middle to later part of March. We can still expect a few mild days embedded in this setup, but I expect some winter weather action in the 10 days beginning March 13th

Weather providing more of the variety pack to the MRV over the next week to 10 days

March is only a few days away and our weather has moved into that early March position accordingly providing us with a variety of very changeable weather. With that said, happy bluebird Friday ! Please get out and enjoy the winter-like temperatures and sunshine because in this weather pattern, it won't last ! The clouds are back by Saturday and so is the precipitation, beginning as a bit of snow in the midday hours and then changing to a bit of freezing rain or rain later in the day or into the evening. This does not appear to be a particularly robust overrunning set up, beset with low level southerly flow which will scour much of the sub-freezing temperatures out of northern Vermont by the end of Saturday. Precipitation is not expected to be especially robust either however and we can expect 1-2 inches of snow followed by a minimal ice accumulation. Another system will race east out of the Rockies on Sunday, tracking over the U.P. of Michigan before proceeding on a track over southern Canada. I think much of Sunday is simply dry, cloudy and mild and if the sun can break for a few hours (possible), it will turn the last day of February into the warmest since late December with above freezing temperatures (35-40) encompassing a large section of even the high country. Even with the clouds and mostly low visibility, Sunday appears mild enough to soften much of the snowpack at lower elevations and any rainfall is likely to hold off until very late in the ski day or during the evening. 

I think we got part of next week figured out, but continue to have questions relating to a potential storm in the Wednesday/Thursday time frame. On Monday, we should sub-freezing temps return to the upper portions of the mountain while mild, slightly above freezing temperatures continue to prevail in low lying areas. Though I would not expect a full return to sunshine, any rain will be long gone and we can expect at least a few glimpses of blue sky to accompany the relatively comfortable early March temperatures. Colder, lingering arctic air in eastern Canada will then plunge southward late Monday evening, powered by a vigorous clipper system which will bring a period of snow showers and squalls to the entire MRV. It only appears to be a brief window for potential heavy snow but a pretty healthy one and certainly capable of providing us skiers with 2-6 inches of powder ahead of a cold ski day on Tuesday. The sun should make a full return later Tuesday but with temperatures hovering in the teens.

As mentioned, we still have some storm potential in the late Wednesday to Thursday time frame. This is an idea that the American GFS model has never seemed to warm up to but both the Canadian and European ensembles continue to hint at. It involves subtropical energy in the jet stream that has an outside chance of phasing with what's left of the polar jet and producing a storm of considerable significance along the east coast. This is not a likely scenario right now but a possible one that's worth a watch. 

In the longer range, we will continue to lose our longstanding high latitude blocking support and all the major ensembles have responded by suggesting a period of stronger above normal temperatures beginning around March 7th (a Sunday) and persisting through at least the 10th or 11th. Although there is more agreement regarding this idea generally, ensembles continue to disagree on when exactly this threat of warmth begins. The American continues to ride the warm train and jumps on early, showing above normal temperatures by the first weekend of March (6th and 7th) while the European is conveying a more winter-like March 6th and 7th before warmer temperatures commence on March 8th. The disagreement likely stems from the existence of that potential storm discussed in the preceding period. In spite of the warm temperatures advertised in the 2nd week of March, there are signs it won't last. Though we will lose the support of the AO/NAO in early March, the strength of the jet in the Pacific is also expected to gradually recede after peaking over the next few days. Though a return to a sustained period of below normal temperatures is unlikely in the middle of the month, I don't agree with the notion that winter is done after March 6th.

Very changeable weather over the next 5 days in Vermont but this forecast continues to include light amounts of snow

 Pacific air now covers much of the eastern half of the country and large sections of the U.S. are very happy to see it. Much of Texas which was freezing under the weight of single digit temperatures a week or so ago are now enjoying 70-degree afternoons and Minnesota will be 50 degrees warmer Tuesday afternoon verses one week ago. In Vermont, last Tuesday was actually pretty mild same as this Tuesday giving me the chance to misappropriate David Byrne's famous line "same as it ever was" while also pointing out that interior New England often follows its own weather road, independent of the rest of the North America. We can expect some light snow Tuesday afternoon and evening and a light accumulation of maybe an inch or two. Wednesday will almost feel spring-like, with temperatures approaching 40 in the valley and  it would be even warmer were it not for the arrival of clouds in the afternoon. 

Those clouds mentioned above mark the approach of the surge of lingering arctic air in Canada that has been discussed a few times here. Elevation sensitive rain/snow showers will become snow showers and snow squalls on the mountain Wednesday evening and as winds become more northwesterly during the overnight hours, those snow showers will lead to some accumulation at Mad River Glen. Those snow showers will gradually abate Thursday morning but not before a 2-5 inch snowfall. Winds Thursday will remain gusty but the sunshine should make an appearance during the afternoon with temperatures hovering in the high teens before falling well into the single digits Thursday night. I think Friday is bluebird material and with lighter winds and near 20-degree temperatures. I always consider those type of days to be underappreciated since we really just don't see too many of them in the northeast. It's either cloudy, precipitating, windy or a combination of two or three. Rarely is it simply sunny, calm and cold. Certainly something that the Colorado folks have on us, climatologically speaking.

Friday's weather will not persist into the upcoming weekend. A push of milder air will bring clouds back to Vermont Saturday and some snow or mixed precipitation late in the day or during the evening. Some of the major forecast models are not particularly bullish on accumulating snow but it remains possible being the the process of displacing arctic cold typically begets snow. Sunday appears a bit drier with clouds, a few peaks of sunshine and mild in the valley areas with readings up near the 40-degree mark while temperatures hover around freezing on the mountain. 

The outlook for the first 4-5 days of March which amounts to the Monday-Friday period of next week looks like a typical early March setup. Models simply are illustrating no agreement on specifics. The GFS shows a surge of much below normal temperatures early in the week accompanied by snow showers while the Euro has temperatures closer to normal while showing a potential snow producing system for interior New England later in the week. I am actually quite open to either possibility and never felt comfortable with the notion that we would get a significant torch next week. 

Beyond March 5, there are more hints of a more significant round of spring-like weather but even in this time frame, not all of the ensemble packages of reached an agreement as to how warm it might get.

Mildest week in some time still expected to feature several small snow accumulations

 Though the big storm has been elusive both this past week and through the winter as a whole in northern Vermont, we've found ways to get snowfall other ways. The snow shower machine came through both Friday and Saturday night and when combined with the cold temperatures, really made for a nice weekend of skiing. Meanwhile the pattern is really undergoing some changes. Earlier this month we saw the high latitude blocking associated with the Sudden Stratospheric Warming event score a big victory over the competing strength of the Pacific Jet. Contrary to a season ago, the Arctic Oscillation (AO) has been persistently negative but for the first time since late November has worked its way into positive territory. Meanwhile the Pacific is a raging torrent right now and will briefly evolve into a full scale evil empire before retreating westward toward the date line. Even with all that however, Vermont will escape without a massive torch. I think the lower part of the mountain will procure a couple of above-freezing afternoons Tuesday and Wednesday but there is new snow dotting the forecast in spite of this and some lingering arctic air in eastern Canada will spill southward late in the week, giving us a wintry finish to a very wintry month. 

The mild Pacific air is on an eastward march stemming from the changes discussed above. Fortunately, its approach will be the catalyst for a decent period of snow during the midday and afternoon hours Monday and with temperatures remaining in the 20's, the snow should stay powdery. Both Tuesday and Wednesday will be milder as mentioned but in the case of Tuesday, there's enough instability for elevation sensitive snow showers, especially during the afternoon. It will start to feel like late March down in the valley with some snow melt and temperatures up near 40, but up on the mountain, the occasional snow will keep readings near the freezing mark. Some early sun Wednesday could make for an even milder day but that late week arctic push will begin its approach late in the day, accompanied by a rapidly moving clipper system. We could receive more snow from this clipper system Wednesday night followed by snow showers into early Thursday before clearing skies and colder temperatures prevail late in the day, Thursday night and into Friday. There's quite a bit to digest here, much of it caused by small weather features but in summary we have the following in terms of snowfall accumulation. 

2-4 inches of powder Monday afternoon

1-3 inches of gloppier snow Tuesday afternoon

1-3 inches of wet snow from clipper Wednesday night

1-3 inches of Champlain powder very early Thursday 

The late week cold should persist through Friday, a sunny day and into the early part of the last weekend of February which could feature another bit of snowfall as milder air makes another northeastward push, creating a nice overrunning surface for us. With the AO positive and the Pacific doing its thing, there is quite a bit of talk about a torchy March. At face value, ensembles are showing slightly above average temperatures for the first week of the month but nothing excessive and as bad as the EPO is in the near term, it is expected to peak late this week and subside a bit thereafter. So while I certainly wouldn't want to convey that the outlook is cold during the first 10 days of month, I think normal or slightly above is a much better guess than much above. 

Intermittent light snow Thursday night and Friday followed by snow showers Friday night adds up to about 4-6 inches

 Though we did manage to avoid a damaging thaw this week, it was certainly mildly disappointing that a week loaded with snowfall potential may end up featuring less than a foot. Worse is the overall realization that one of the best overall east coast snowstorm setups in several years, failed to deliver the big storm to northern Vermont. It's still probably the best February of skiing in several years but we've also had some bad ones since 2017. 

Our east coast snow event has been a story of a storm that once threatened to track close to Lake Huron and is now only producing a narrow corridor of snowfall in areas of the northeast close to the coast. Models had a difficult time with this one, especially the American GFS model, but when a polar jet is involved, small errors in the short term become large areas a few days out and even bigger ones 5-7 days out. We are still likely to see some snowfall beginning within a few hours of midnight Friday and persisting intermittently through the day. Unfortunately, I don't think the snow will ever reach an intensity capable of producing a heavy accumulation and we are thus likely to see only 2-3 inches of fluffy powder. We have a decent snow shower set up for a few hours with some instability combined with favorable wind direction Friday night. I would be more optimistic except in this case, but when a storm is consolidating offshore it can act to steal moisture from us inland locales. Forecast data is still suggesting that a few inches are possible Friday night in northern Vermont and the high country is best positioned for the highest amounts. Lighter snow showers are likely to continue into Saturday, an excellent ski day with some new snow and cold temperatures (near 20) and gusty northwest winds.  I also expect a bit of sunshine late Saturday and a bit more early Sunday before clouds arrive in advance of the next weather system. Sunday will be dry, less windy with a cold start (single digits) and a tolerable afternoon of 25-30 degree temps. 

We continue to have a possible snowfall lined up for Monday the 22nd. This is a fast moving Pacific impulse and its eastward advance marks the arrival of milder Pacific air and the retreat of Arctic air and the polar jet more generally. The storm system appears to be moving too quickly to evolve into a big east coast snow producer but the potential for a few inches is certainly there. There are parts of the rest of next week that are showing up a bit milder today but not excessively so. The midday cycle of models on Feb 18 also indicated that arctic air will linger in southeast Canada through next week and perhaps might make a push southward ahead or during the advance of an approaching storm system in the Thursday/Friday(25/26th) time frame. This combination at least brings the possibility of some new snow late next week but we will have to wait and see how this situation evolves. 

Fundamentally speaking, the pattern does not look especially cold in early March. The +EPO appears to be back in the drivers seat and it opens the door for a few spring-like days in the first week of the month. 

No ice or rain late Thursday into Friday, just a powdery light snow and some additional snow showers Friday night

 Texas continues to be stuck in the deep freeze and residents are being forced to deal with rolling blackouts for another day. In the meantime its just another typical week of winter weather in Vermont with precipitation coming in multiple forms and big swings in temperature. The lowest thousand feet of MRG inched above freezing on Tuesday but the upper mountain appeared to remain below freezing even as mixed precipitation was falling during the morning. Snow showers accompanied the incoming remnants of the "Texas Special", the now modified arctic airmass that brought sub-zero temps to the Dallas/Ft Worth metro. 

Thursday's weather situation has evolved very quickly. Medium range models had us living in fear of a dreadful Great Lakes cutter just a few days ago and now the storm and much of it's associated moisture are south and east; in fact, too far south and east for a heavy snow in Vermont. The cold air certainly isn't the issue, we will get our dose of the "Texas Special with temperatures in the teens on Wednesday and even below zero Thursday morning. We do need the moisture however and the latest rounds of model data are showing much of the precipitation with the coastal system closer to the coastline. That said, the decaying area of snowfall associated with the initial storm will still get us in the form of that inverted trough structure. So an epic storm is looking less likely but ice or freezing rain is looking very unlikely. Even if the storm is a measly 2-5 incher, it's better than ice and rain.  In the current scenario, the snow would be slower to develop, arriving sometime late Thursday night and persist through a good part of Friday. The snow would be intermittent and not especially intense but certainly powdery. The snow shower situation also looks quite favorable for several hours Friday night, potentially adding 2-4 inches ahead of the ski day Saturday. 

Both weekend ski days look blustery and chilly with temperatures near 20 during the day and teens and single numbers at night. Flurries and snow showers are likely to continue into part of Saturday while Sunday appears drier. 

The Pacific jet is poised to regain control of the North American weather pattern forcing arctic air to retreat and and allowing much milder air to return to southern latitudes including Texas next week. Before that happens in New England however, we might be able to cook something up around the time frame of Monday. Not every model is showing it, at this point it's mostly the European and its ensemble members but often times, the caboose in an arctic pattern or the last storm before the cold retreats can be a big snow producer. Even after this hypothetical storm departs and spring-like conditions emerge in many of the same areas stricken by the recent deep freeze, Vermont should be able to stay wintry through the rest of next week. As we enter March, there are signs that milder air could make a more substantial intrusion to the MRV but next week continues to look wintry. 

Two storms will challenge northern Vermont with pushes of milder air but precipitation looks more like snow/sleet and less like ice/cold rain

The weather made a few headlines this past weekend as a historic cold wave descended on the state of Texas.   As of late Sunday, every county in the Lone Star State was under a winter storm warning and there were apocalyptic wintry scenes from around Dallas which experienced blowing snow with temperatures in the teens. Now we've had some snow this year in and around the MRV and we are about to get more this week, but much of Texas has us beat for wintry weather this past weekend so congrats to them on that. 

This weather pattern overall is quite extraordinary because of the intense cold in the central U.S. but it does bear a resemblance to a pattern I might expect during a significant La Nina winter (certainly a more extreme version of it). Arctic air battling it out with a stubborn and resilient ridge in the jet stream across the southeast and don't forget about all the storminess that has impacted the Pacific Northwest. That storminess is taking quite the scenic route across North America right now entering via the Puget Sound, heading southeast all the way to the Rio Grande Valley and then making a hard left turn toward the Ohio Valley. Two storms will do that this week and the tracks of both significant storms will bring with them a big push of milder temperatures. I think we can keep the sub-freezing temperature streak alive and keep the ice and rain away but we will certainly be challenged and twice ! 

Storm #1 is the one responsible for all of the snow in Texas and it will race northeast Monday toward eastern Tennessee and ultimately position itself close to the New Hampshire seacoast by midday Tuesday. This is a pretty good track honestly but we are working with a bare minimum amount of cold air. Most of it is to our west and not to our north. It should be enough however to allow for some light snow to develop during the afternoon Monday followed by some steadier snow during the overnight hours. Now as of late Sunday, we didn't have any more room to spare in terms of keeping this storm all snow. In other words, northward shift is now bad and even another 10 miles might be bad and with the overnight round of forecast data arriving as I write this, it looks like enough warm air might infiltrate a small layer of the atmosphere to change precipitation to sleet Tuesday morning. We can handle sleet but we need to keep the ice away and I think that will be a problem in southern Vermont, Mass and portions of interior CT. As far as accumulations go, the introduction of sleet to the forecast suggests lower amounts overall in the range of 5-10 inches. 

We get the remnants of the the midwest cold wave for 2 days Wednesday and Thursday. It will arrive abruptly shortly after Sunset Tuesday and should be accompanied by some snow showers for a few hours. The snow will be mostly gone by Wednesday morning but temperatures will be back around zero degrees and we should see a period of sunshine, a rare glimpse in a very active week. 

The news for the event late Thursday into Friday is encouraging right now. Another big amplifying storm in this pattern is certainly capable of cutting right to the eastern Great Lakes. The Thursday system will attempt to do that but the last few rounds of model data are indicating a much healthier cold air damming signature along the east coast stemming from the aforementioned airmass arriving Tuesday night. There is continued uncertainty regarding the exact track of this stronger looking storm late Thursday but I expect a front end dump of snow regardless of the track and then we have to root hard to keep the ice and rain away. Data today suggests that we have a very good chance of doing just that but a period of sleet continues to look likely. The eventual track of this system is critical and the ability for this storm to make an efficient transfer to the coast will determine whether or not we can avoid all the adverse stuff. The cold air damming signature was very encouraging today but we aren't quite to the finish line yet. In terms of timing with this storm, snow would begin late in the day Thursday and the best chance for sleet would be in the hours around midnight Friday. 

Colder weather and snow showers will ring in the weekend and are likely to continue through part of Saturday. Temperatures will below normal but remain in the more garden variety category rising into the 20's during the day and dropping into the teens and single digits overnight. The pattern certainly looks to be more Pacific and less Arctic for the last week of February but Vermont continues to look well positioned to escape any thaw and should be able to procure a bit more snow between Feb 22-25.

Unique weather pattern should deliver at least once decent snowfall to Vermont early next week and a chance another late in the week

A very unique weather situation over the next week that has a decent chance at yielding an outstanding outcome for us Vermont skiers but also a slight chance of a bad end at the end of next week. It's really one of the more incredible weather patterns I have seen with historic cold in Texas while temperatures on the east coast remain pretty close and in some places even stay above normal. 

In the short term, the weather will stay quiet. We have a dry but cold Saturday with temperatures remaining in the teens. Light snow from that inverted trough we were discussing in the last update, will indeed bring us a minimal amount of snow Saturday night, perhaps 1-2 inches before departing just as the ski day gets going Sunday. We should see temperatures rebound nicely on Sunday, climbing well into the 20's with very minimal wind. That should feel tropical compared to much of the weather we've seen over the past 2 weeks.

Monday will be similar to Sunday with clouds, little wind and temperatures up around 30 in the afternoon. Remarkable when I think that 10 days ago, the President's Day holiday seemed to be the bullseye for the coldest day of the year in New England. As it turns out, that cold will slam into Texas head first and give them one of the coldest days of the past decade. The intense clash of arctic air to our west and a mild upper ridge to our east is going to churn up a decent looking storm along the Gulf Coast late on Monday and. Light snow stemming from all this has a chance at beginning as early as Monday afternoon well out in advance of this system but there is potential for moderate to heavy snowfall Monday night into early Tuesday. The storm is a garden variety event and will be sped along by a strong jet stream but models are converging on a 7-15 inch type of event and a terrific ski day on Tuesday even as arctic cold  is pulled back into northern New England as the day progresses. 

Sunshine might return for a day on Wednesday and gusty winds late on Tuesday could diminish setting the stage for one of the few calm days of the week. Another storm will then gathering strength late Wednesday into Thursday, again along the Gulf Coast and again fueled largely by that highly baraclinic clashing of airmasses from northwest to southeast. This storm has even more potential from the standpoint of intensity but I am little worried about this sucker. We could score another big haul of snowfall but we are playing with fire if the pattern becomes too amplified in the Mississippi Delta region. A storm could cut toward the eastern Great Lakes in such a setup and end what would be a 50-plus day streak without a serious thaw and without any rain. The American GFS model has been indicating this, a few runs in a row. Canadian and European model data is indicating a track far enough to the east that we could avoid a turn to rain while procuring a healthy to even heavy dose of snow. In other words, a lot is on the line with the storm track late next week.  I can be a little more specific on timing by saying this is a late Thursday into Friday question and even the snowy outcome should be accompanied by moderating temperatures.

The weekend of February 20th and 21st should begin blustery and end with temperatures close to seasonable levels. Snow showers are certainly possible late Friday Feb 19th into Saturday the 20th. After that, much of the U.S., south of 40 N north latitude will see moderating temperatures as the Pacific jet jet again becomes a more formidable adversary. I do think arctic air remains close enough in Canada to keep New England mostly out of any spring balminess. Once we get to February 22, the sun angle is high enough to begin materially impacting climatology and warming our normal temperatures. 

A softer version of our cold outlook allowing for more stormy and a lot cases snowy scenarios over the next 10 days

 Back on December 28th, I did 4 laps on the practice slope, the only run open at MRG on that date. It had snowed in the morning, but temperatures had warmed to almost 40 degrees during that afternoon. This was 43 days ago now and it basically hasn't been above freezing (at least by more than a degree or 2) since that date and it certainly hasn't rained. Interestingly, the Mt Mansfield snowstake has yet to completely recover from the slow start (its getting close) but the snow has been fantastic and most places in Vermont seem to have 90-100 percent of terrain open. As of February 10th, arctic air has a firm grip on the weather over Vermont but interestingly, the pattern hasn't become completely suppressed which is an inherent fear when the PV gets this close. The +EPO (strengthy Pacific Jet) is currently down but not out and the southeast ridge in the jet stream, a common feature in any La Nina winter is showing its resilience and has and will deflect a lot of the cold weather away from the southeast coast even as Texas gets obliterated with cold over the next week to 10 days. Add all this together and it makes for an intriguing forecast for northern New England. To borrow the famous quote from Mark Twain, rumors of a dry forecast were greatly exaggerated ! It will not be dry across Vermont and several chances for snow and even some sleet, dot the outlook for the next 10 days. 

I suggested in the last update that we can expect some changes to the forecast every day. We have and that will continue. There was also a mention of the trend toward a drier outlook late this week and that now appears pretty firm. We saw a decent bit of sunshine on Wednesday in the MRV and we should see more both Thursday and Friday while the clouds and overrunning precipitation are well to our south. Temperatures will remain quite chilly however with readings struggling into the teens Thursday and perhaps only 10 on Friday after a below zero start. Its a close call right now but Friday could be the coldest day of the month with readings during the holiday week not looking nearly as cold today (more on that in a bit). The forecast data seems to have converged on a solution for the weekend that involves a wave of low pressure developing and moving south of the Virginia Tidewater late Saturday. Though this would seem way too far south for our liking, and it mostly is, an inverted trough extending way up through the Great Lakes is the critical feature for us. It will allow for an area of snow that should impact Vermont on Sunday, even as the strongest area of low pressure is several hundred miles southeast of Cape Cod. That snow will be light but still capable of producing a few inches. It also could land on someone else, so we will need a few more days to confirm that. 

This brings us into the holiday week which looks increasingly interesting with 2 potential storms impacting interior New England. The holiday Monday looks tranquil and cold but not as cold as many in the forecasting community (including myself) had feared. Temperatures could still start below zero but several hours of stronger February sunshine should warm readings into the 20's by the afternoon. And then the fun begins. A strengthening ridge in the ridge in the jet stream is likely going to push a low pressure conglomeration in our direction. I've seen some talk of a Great Lakes cutter and some dire consequences but I don't really buy into that outcome as very likely. I think an initial storm may try and track to our west but there should be an energy transfer to the coast and this should result in a decently snowy outcome for Tuesday.  I think the window is open for a turn to sleet just as the window remains open for the storm to trend southward. For now however, I don't think above freezing temperatures is especially likely in northern Vermont with the Tuesday system. The rest of holiday week looks less cold however with a more amplified pattern keeping the cold in Texas of all places rather than pushing it eastward. Temperatures for the rest of next week after Monday look about normal and a 2nd substantial weather system is likely a result of that more amplified pattern late in the week. This one could go in a number of directions being 9-10 days out but the notion of a storm in this time frame appears pretty legit to me, with enough cold air around to make something productive out of it. 

The +EPO/strong Pacific jet is looking more formidable by the end of next week and I expect much of the cold across the southern US to retreat. This said, the continued presence of blocking across Greenland and a limited amount in NE Russia should allow arctic air to have a strong presence across Canada through the rest of the month. With more ice cover on the Great Lakes, Vermont should have be able to enjoy at least some access to that cold which should help us with any potential storm and my guess is, we will have at least one in the Feb 20-25 time frame.

Some snow on Tuesday but generally just run of the mill cold weather through Friday with a slight chance for a storm over the holiday weekend

Two snowfall over-performances over the past 72 hours have left the mountain in magnificent shape as we enter the extended stretch of cold weather. The first big one on Friday night could not have been a better weekend gift and a 2nd, but smaller 3-4 inch dose Sunday night was a nice refresher for a cold Monday. The snow is also quite welcome in light of the fact that the forecast for the week has gotten drier with the jet stream looking a little flatter. Arctic air is bleeding south in eastern North America as opposed to the all-out invasion and the pattern is getting a bit of push-back from a persistent southeast ridge. The arctic air will clearly win the battle for New England this week but for the purposes of snowfall, it would have been better if the mild air could have pushed far enough north late this week to allow for a big dose of overrunning snow. This is still a small possibility but the late week forecast does look drier, with much of this action farther south. In spite of that, the next two weeks hardly looks boring and includes another dose of snowfall Tuesday. 

The snowfall producing weather system Tuesday could have been more robust but the polar jet is speeding this sucker along before it gets the chance to attain any strength. All that said, the storm is strong enough to bring both clouds and snow to the MRV Tuesday, a steady light snow in fact, beginning right around dawn and continuing intermittently well into the afternoon. This looks like another 2-3 inch snowfall to me with temperatures hovering in the high teens. The more benign nature of this system will allow winds to be a bit lighter (around 10 mph), with some stronger gusts at the summits as always. 

As mentioned, the forecast does look drier late in the week with the ongoing fight between the core of the arctic cold farther northeast and the milder air to our southeast waging their battle farther south. With the polar jet now a dominant force on the weather map, it becomes more difficult to get a great handle on any potential weather system more than a few days out. You might think you have a good idea how a storm might play out and dramatic changes show up in the forecast data one day later. This has already happened quite a bit the last several days and I expect it to continue. I don't expect any such forecast change to impact Wednesday into early Thursday. This period is likely to start with a few flurries (early Wednesday) before clouds give way to some sunshine. We can then expect the first of what should be several sub-zero overnights Wednesday night. We will have to keep an eye on all that overrunning moisture late in the week and see if it can work its way far enough north to impact northern Vermont. Some of the forecast data is still hinting that a small amount could even though the trend has been drier. 

The Saturday-Sunday part of the upcoming holiday weekend continue to look cold in Vermont as we've discussed but less extreme and more or less a continuation of what we will have already experienced through much of the rest of the work week (teens and low 20's for high's and near zero for lows). The move toward a less extreme version of cold is an important change for another reason. With the core of the coldest temperatures remaining west of the Great Lakes (at least early in the weekend), and the southeast ridge remaining a force in the jet stream configuration, the door continues to be ajar for a storm. We've obviously seen the trend toward the flatter waves this week and that could certainly occur again this weekend, but it doesn't take a big ripple to amplify the pattern in a big way. Very often it's just a matter of timing. Such is the case this weekend when there are  indications that a system moving out of the southern Rockies will take much of that lingering sub-tropical moisture in the southeast and turn it all into a sizable east coast storm. As mentioned, this will case where forecast data will rapidly evolve in terms of how they handle this storm. When it comes to the polar jet, small errors in the initial handling of a storm can have big consequences further out in time, a component of chaos theory illustrated in the form of actual weather. 

Our President's Day holiday Monday continues to look very cold (even as Saturday and Sunday move toward less cold). The potential for -10 degree readings on both Monday and Tuesday mornings remains. Thereafter, temperatures are indicated to moderate at varying speeds depending on what ensemble package you are inclined to believe. I am inclined to believe that arctic air will remain a force but without the proximity of a polar vortex allowing for the continuation of below normal temperatures through next week without suppressing the storminess.

It's an exciting time to be a winter weather enthusiast and an exciting pattern, but a challenging and very fluid one as far as trying to predict specifics. 

Northern VT likely to miss most of Superbowl Sunday storm but stormier forecast emerges for next week and most of the precipitation appears to be snow

Both arctic cold and snow continue to dominate the outlook going forward. Saturday appears to be one of the warmer days of the next 2 weeks with temperatures climbing into the 20's, a modest but tolerable wind (10-20mph) and a few glimpses of sunshine. And yes, we have a Superbowl Sunday storm but the track of this storm is offshore and barring another big northward shift, the more robust nature of this storm will actually consolidate snowfall toward the coast and leave less for the state of Vermont. Models are indicated that an inverted trough feature  will allow for a period of lighter snows at MRG during the afternoon on Sunday but accumulations will be less than 2 inches. 

So the polar jet is incoming as expected but recent forecast data has moved to confine the core of most extreme chill north and west of the Great Lakes between February 8th and 12th. Though below normal temperatures are still expected in the MRV, we should be able to avoid the -10 to -20 degree readings and afternoon temperatures may reach the low 20's a few times contrary to my last update. The better and more important news related to this change is the storm track which will be aimed much closer to Vermont and has greatly helped the snow forecast during the same period. Chances for snow from a garden variety storm system remain for Tuesday and models Friday have introduced the idea of a 2nd wave of low pressure next week presenting another chance for snow Thursday.  Though I love the idea of additional snow late in the week it does come with a concern since it involves a potential jet amplification over the center of the country. If the pattern becomes too amplified it would open the door for precipitation to become non-snow in nature by Friday. Ensembles (in the mean) are not suggesting this is likely as of now but a few of the operational model runs are indicating such and I will thus convey the possibility. 

In spite of some of the changes between February 9th and 12th, the coldest part of the forecast still appears to be centered around the 13th-15th time frame. Whether the arctic cold attacks us from the west or more directly from the north will ultimately determine how extreme the cold is but the potential is certainly there for the lowest temperatures of the season. It also means this same period, consisting of the President's Day holiday, is likely to be drier from the standpoint of chill. Beyond the 15th the chances for new snowfall will likely pick up again and I continue to expect that temperatures will stay below average which means teens and 20's for high's and several mornings where temperatures are below zero.

Polar jet to arrive this weekend but several chances for new snow remain for the next 7 days

 In today's update we can focus our attention on the outlook for the rest of the current month, a February that I expect to be the coldest since the polar extravaganza of 2015. In addition to the continued existence of blocking in NE Canada, a feature that will get pushed east toward the Labrador Sea, the strengthening area of high latitude jet stream blocking over the Arctic Circle, mainly north of Russia, will bring a much stronger version of the polar jet on to the playing field over the coming few weeks. We've managed to travel this winter road for 5 weeks without a serious thaw so why not continue for a few more.

Thursday is likely to go down as one of the quieter days of the next two weeks. It won't be especially cold with temperatures making a run at 30 degrees, winds will continue to diminish and we may see a few intervals of sun to go along with clouds and a few snow flurries. On Friday we can expect more clouds, more wind and similar temperatures, but we will also see a period of snow capable of delivering a few inches by the evening. 

We will begin to feel the effects of the incoming polar jet over the weekend. It will be colder but not extreme with temperatures generally in the 20's during the day. It appears to be a very good lake effect snow set up in the snow belts but with winds expected to be west-southwest, the snow bands will be aimed accordingly and in Vermont this means that the best accumulating snow will be close to the Canadian border. The MRV will see some snow showers Saturday but I expect accumulations to be very light. We had some questions relating to the potential existence of a substantial east coast storm Sunday. This looks entirely more suppressed as of Wednesday but the polar jet will bring in an impulse potent enough to deliver a widespread lighter snow to Vermont on Sunday. This will come in advance of a more  intense area of arctic chill which should arrive Sunday night into Monday bringing temperatures close to zero for the start of next week. 

As a whole, we know that next week will be chilly with temperatures that might fail to break 20 for the entire week. We also know about the propensity of the polar jet to suppress the storm track. That said, the mean trough is expected to establish itself over the center of the North American continent allowing both some milder temperatures to linger along the southeast coast early next week and keeping the storm track aimed in our direction Monday and Tuesday. So in spite of the polar jet, we could see a snow producing system in the Tuesday time frame with colder drier weather winning out late next week. So in summary, though the forecast for the coming week might seen drier, we actually have chances for some light snow Friday, again on Sunday and maybe something bigger Tuesday, February 9th.

And all that high latitude blocking leaves no place for the arctic air to go except to hang around. Ensembles continue to argue about where the most intense chill will be focused, an important question as we head toward the holiday in terms of where the storm track might set up. The polar jet is likely to bring the peak of the chill into New England around the 12th or 13th of February (Friday/Saturday) and if the jet softens somewhat thereafter, the door might open for a storm by February 15th or 16th (This includes the holiday Monday).

A modest snow Tuesday and Wednesday but arctic air has dramatically altered the outlook for early February and basically eliminated the risk of a thaw in the near term

The NYC metro got slammed with 15-30 inches of snow accompanied by some ferocious winds. It was a classic nor'easter that lived up to the hype and hopefully provided a break from the monotony of life in the big city during this almost year-long pandemic. Northern Vermont will get a piece of this storm but not the best piece. The snow very early Tuesday morning will amount to 4-8 inches, falling at a light or moderate intensity until early afternoon before tapering to mostly flurries. Winds will be gusty out of the north, but the storm will have reached its peak intensity and become rather stretched out off the northeast coast allowing for the lesser overall impact not only in Vermont, but throughout much of northern New England. That said, the leftover plume of moisture appears to line up pretty well with a favorable wind direction and a decent low level area of instability Wednesday. Snow showers should enhance along the spine of the Green Mountains by midday Wednesday and an additional 3 to as much as 7 inches is my guess at a result (7-14 two day total). Winds will remain a little gusty (10-20 mph) but will have diminished somewhat from Tuesday, temperatures will hover in the 20's and the snow will be fluffy in nature making it one of the better days of the season.

January 2021 has now concluded and what a remarkable month it was. Sure snowfall was maybe only a touch above average and the sub-zero temperatures over the weekend only pulled the month to within about 2 degrees of average on the above side. What was remarkable was that we recorded an above average month while not experiencing any above-freezing temperatures above roughly 2500. What we also didn't experience was any rain. The Champlain Valley saw it, parts of the St Lawrence Valley on Quebec got wet but the Vermont high country kept it all on the snow side. You would think a month like that during a Vermont winter would be common but it is more of an exception than a rule and I want a trophy for such things. I also want to keep the streak going and I can say emphatically that we will. Low lying areas will again get fairly close to the freezing mark both Thursday and Friday but the late week push of mild weather will not only fall completely flat, but be replaced by clouds and a period of snow capable of yielding a few inches prior to the upcoming weekend. 

I got the needed inspiration for a blog update looking at the incoming polar jet this weekend. What an incredible turn of events. A week or so ago, I had referred to the steady state nature of the teleconnection indices as like a tall man stalemate in a professional tennis match. That stale mate will get broken this weekend with the persistent high latitude blocking scoring the victory and allowing the North American continent to get flooded with arctic air not only in Canada but deep into the United States. Its a massive bust for the Euro and Canadian ensemble packages that had suggested for some time that any cold would get bottled up across the Pacific Northwest. With the cold comes the polar jet of course and it will be the real slim shady this time, not a modified or mini-me version. In short, it will certainly impact the storm track but will it suppress potential activity this weekend or will something cook along the east coast as the more current Euro model is suggesting and the American model is hinting. We should be able to procure a bit of snow Sunday in either outcome and its an incredible change relative to what was indicated for this time period 4-5 days ago. 

Arctic air will rein over Vermont and all of New England for much of of the 2nd week of February. The core of the cold will be situated over the upper Midwest but the arctic outbreak appears broad enough to cast a wide net. The storm track will also be further south as mentioned but with the trough axis far enough to our west, the door isn't totally shut on action along the eastern seaboard.