5-10 inches of steady cold snow Sunday followed by a wild week of weather that we hope will end with a MLK storm

 Northward shifting sounds like a dance some fool like me might try at a wedding. It's got a pretty nice connotation when it comes to weather around here though since it typically involves moving snowfall expectations higher. In this particular case the storm in question just looks a little stronger, a little farther north and should spread steadier snowfall throughout the entire state and of a powdery consistency. Snow should begin within a few hours of 9 pm tonight and continue through much of the ski day Sunday. Though the heaviest snow continues to appear south of us, the snow in northern Vermont will be persistent with temperatures on Sunday holding in the high teens. Accumulations by Sunday evening will get into the 5-10 inch category while winds will be light to moderate except at the summits where skiers can expect them to get a little gusty out of the northeast (20-30 mph). 

Clouds are expected to linger for part of Monday though the accumulating snow will be over Sunday evening. Monday's temps will climb into the 20's and then fall to the single numbers early Tuesday as clouds decrease over the fresh snow cover. I've been watching the weather system late Tuesday into Wednesday for a long time now on the various model simulations, waiting for a southward or eastward shift. This very powerful midwest storm will make an effort to transfer some of its energy to the New England coastline but can't quite complete the process; plus, the shear power of this cyclone presents us its own challenges. Temperatures for a time will be cold enough to support snow as precipitation begins Tuesday evening and several hours of heavy snow are possible before warmer air forces its way over central and northern Vermont. By Wednesday morning we should be seeing sleet, freezing rain or just plain rain for few hours. Fortunately, it all moves east very quickly and is over by midday or early afternoon Wednesday.  Keep in mind, we could see quite a bit of wind particularly on Wednesday once the low pressure area passes. We might be able to avoid the strong easterly winds Tuesday as those winds stay above the surface. 

A strong signal has now emerged for a third in this impressive series of storm systems early on MLK weekend . It's a fun time across North America with the pineapple express throwing lots of storminess our way, arctic air continuing to build across the western part of the continent and lot of Gulf of Mexico and Atlantic Ocean moisture prepared to get involved in the action. December was a very wet month across Vermont and undoubtedly precipitation amounts will be well above normal in January as well. We just more of it to fall the right way and have a much better chance to do that with a storm early on MLK weekend which should mature a little slower and track further south and east. I've got put this out there that perhaps I should just retire the blog and just forecast a holiday melt down followed by big storms on MLK weekend and in the middle of March. Crazy how in recent years we've seeing varying iterations of this play out. Got quite a bit of uncertainty that remains with this system so stay tuned. 

Less uncertainty remains regarding a widespread attack of arctic chill for the country beginning around MLK Day and lasting at least a week with cold weather likely to persist in New England through much of the remainder of the month. The real question relates whether this unrelenting storminess is allowed to continue as the colder drier moves south or whether that action is suppressed for a time. It's pretty tough to bet against the strength of this El Nino and the storminess that has resulted from it. It would blunt some of the force of the arctic chill, but it sure would be fun to watch the snow fall.