Should have known better ! The big known obstacles that often put a lid on northward shifting storms are really not in play late this weekend. No big power polar jet to drive storms offshore or suppress them south and this like many other northward shifting storms, is a well established maturing cyclone that will reestablish itself as a coastal system by Monday morning. It's all good news for powder hounds in the MRV which should see snow falling as the ski day concludes Sunday. The heaviest snow should come over a several hour period during the evening Sunday. Not quite long enough to make this an epic storm of a foot or more, but long enough to make this a solid 3-6 inch event with snow lessening in intensity before dawn Monday and tapering to flurries by the start of the ski day. Temperatures will be a few ticks below freezing as snow begins late Sunday but should fall into the middle 20's by Monday morning and hold in the upper 20's during the ski day with an accompanying gusty north wind keeping wind chills closer to zero and even below at times.
We have a unique jet stream configuration for the upcoming week and I won't complain. I've talked a lot about the mass expanse of warmth over the central part of North America and it sure is ominous looking yet it won't have much of an impact on Vermont over the next 10 days. Though it won't be cold relative to average over Vermont and the rest of interior New England, the steering currents in the jet stream, aimed at us from the northwest will keep us protected from the ongoing torch in the central part of the continent. This is also a drier jet stream overall and although we will have our chance at some new snow during the first full weekend of February, we should have a lot of days without precipitation and several days that include both sunshine and better visibility. We haven't seen an overwhelming amount of that so far this year or this winter.
The clearing skies might even arrive as the ski day is ending Monday and the departing storm continues to strengthen offshore. Tuesday appears to be a calm day with several hours of sunshine and temperatures in the lower 20's. Wednesday appears to be similar with a slightly warmer near 30 degree temperatures and a period of cloudiness. That Manitoba mauler I had discussed in the previous post is certainly a big part of the weather map during this period but passing well to our west and then south and ensuring that drier period which should persist through early Thursday.
A second clipper system dropping right over the top of us late in the week is so far east that it might appropriately be referred to as a Quebec careener. Original name or not it is an interesting system and ensures a colder sub-freezing outlook through next weekend and also brings our best chance for some new snow in the next 10 days (after Sunday night of course). The clipper itself is likely to bring some light snow to us but its passage is also going to bring an opportunity for some Champlain and oragraphic enhanced snows either Friday, Saturday or both. It will be interesting to see how models handle this situation in the coming days but it certainly possible we see some of the best weekend skiing so far this season even as much above normal temperature rage on a few thousand miles to our west.
Ensembles are dropping major hints of a major league southern streaming storm in the February 4th or 5th period. It's a dream setup for the southern Appalachian Mountains, a region that typically scores a big storm such as this during a sizable El Nino such as this. We have 10 days for potential northward shifting so its never too early to ask though at face value, these same ensembles suggest a dry outlook for Vermont with above normal temperatures but still mostly below freezing across the high country through around February 7th. There are hints that temperatures could creep toward the 40-degree mark toward the 2nd weekend of February, but I am taking a victory lap on avoiding any of this or rain for at least the next 10 days. Go us !
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