Incredibly active week of storminess to add snowpack to the northern VT high country, albeit the hard way !

One layer of cold powdery snow has been deposited and a second layer is coming, though its safe to say it will be of a different consistency. A powerful cyclone has spun its way into the midwest, not far from Chicago Tuesday morning. The storm is responsible for snow, heavy rain, wind and severe weather and Vermont is earmarked for a few of these items Tuesday night into Wednesday. Unfortunately, the storm is tracking too far into southern Quebec to completely avoid the ice and rain, but with the storm expected to go through an occlusion and transfer some of its energy eastward, we should be able to score this as a net gain to our snow (though not as powdery one as I mentioned). Precipitation starts as snow Tuesday evening and should really thump for a few hours, bringing 4-6 inches of snow throughout the MRV. The snow will start cold, then get wetter around midnight before transitioning to freezing rain in some areas or rain in others. I It should all be over within a few hours of daybreak as winds shift abruptly to the west and temperatures spike briefly into the 40's. Speaking of those winds, there has been legitimate concern over that and I can't speak for all areas of northern Vermont as I am not entirely familiar with how certain wind directions interact with every local oragraphy. Across the MRV however and in many of the interior valleys, the east-southeast wind that is expected Tuesday night into early Wednesday, at least the most intense version of it, should stay just above the surface. In many locations, you may hear the wind ripping away up on the mountain even as it remains calmer in the valley. The gusty west winds should be felt in all locations Wednesday and eventually we can expect snow showers to reemerge, significant enough to produce an inch or two of snow up on the mountain. An upper air disturbance passing through on Thursday is likely to bring more of the same. We don't have the wind direction off the unfrozen Lake Champlain for heavy snow showers, but another inch or two is certainly possible. 

Never heard anyone refer to Vermont weather as boring and this week is a testament to that. Another strong storm gears up to impact the region Friday night into Saturday. Aside from some morning flurries, the Friday ski day is dry, but clouds will thicken by evening and heavy precipitation will arrive during the ensuing overnight hours. This storm is a little colder than its predecessor in a few ways. The track is futher south and east (closer to Montreal) and is also expected to make a more robust transition to the Maine coast. In spite of that, I can't believe we are playing defense on another storm attempting to track to our west. This is very unusual in an El Nino year with downstream blocking well established, but the polar jet is trying to force a jet amplification that allows for such a track, plus the warm Great Lakes (cooling fast) is still a northward pull. I still expect this to be a pretty solid event overall though short of a home run. I expect to see another several hour period of moderate to heavy snow and then some sleet and if we get some rain Saturday morning, I think it will be minimal. Temperatures also, are not likely to climb significantly above freezing on the mountain. The same can't be said for the Champlain Valley (also expected to see temps surge on downsloping winds Tuesday night) which could see temps spike to 40 early Saturday. The weather in Burlington and the weather over MRG is and will be very different early Saturday. Additionally, the set up for snow showers later in the day looks decent and the entire chain of mountains can expect some additional accumulation later in the day Saturday into Saturday night. It's early to make a guess on accumulation but I'll make one anyway and say 6-12 (snow and a some sleet) .

It will be interesting to see if lake effect snow squalls can make it north over Buffalo as they host an NFL playoff game this Sunday. Never gets boring to watch them play football in a snow squall, at least for me. Snow showers over northern Vermont are also expected to shift north as the holiday weekend progresses as temperatures gradually move to the colder side. Much of the central park of the U.S. will see an impressive arctic outbreak beginning this weekend. I don't think New England will get the brunt of this particular cold wave, but we can still expect a more standard round of below normal temperatures. Since we sit on the front edge of the arctic envelopment, the door will remain open for more storminess and models have sporadically shown action along the east coast which I consider to be potentially legit. One such event might occur around the time frame of Tuesday the 16th and another potential time frame for snow is Friday. 

After that, the high latitude blocking is actually expected to break down quickly but the Pacific appears quite favorable enabling the existing arctic cold in Canada to remain in close proximity if not over New England. Storms in the southern stream could make good use of any existing arctic chill to produce another storm. It certainly has that kind of potential.