Beutifuul cold, wintry weekend to enjoy the recent snow and then we fend off an initial attempt to warm the region next week

 Terrific stretch of winter days continues in northern Vermont. Snow squalls from over the weekend over performed and this was followed by a beautiful cold, steady snow on Tuesday that fell over the top of a solid January base. The snowstake at Mt Mansfield has now totally recovered and then some, resuming its position that it had earlier this winter of an above average snow depth. Now to the challenge of keeping that going into February ! 

 Certainly no challenge to winter over the weekend with the coldest weather so far this season expected. As highlighted in the previous update, Friday's storm will not come together far enough to the north and is struggling to completely come together entirely as the upper air energy in the polar jet is coming in a little too flat to produce a "proper" coastal ignition. Winds will start to increase out of the northwest as the day progresses Friday and the sun should make an afternoon appearance to go along with 10-15 degree temperatures on the mountain (a bit higher in valley areas). There's only a limited layer of instability available to us on Saturday so even though our wind direction off Lake Champlain can't get much better. Snow showers should stay on the lighter side though I do expect we see those occasionally to go along with a few intervals of sunshine. Saturday is the coldest day with below zero wind chills, but actual temperatures should stay above the zero degree line (about 5 above I think) throughout the day. Sunday should feature a little more sunshine, a little less wind and afternoon temperatures of near 15. When you combine all that with the recent snowfall the mountain has received, it really makes for a really terrific January winter weekend not only for downhill skiing at MRG but for about any outdoor winter activity. 

The stretched PV dropping over New England and then proceeding off shore allows for a dramatic temperature moderation across all of the United States early next week and much of southern Canada. At face value, we are contending with a ugly looking jet stream next week that could theoretically support a multi-day thaw. Fortunately, Quebec is pushing some lingering cold back in our direction and a confluence area in the jet stream over the maritimes of Canada keeps the excessive temperatures out of Vermont through most of next week. In addition to that, that same confluence area supports the notion of some overrunning snow, or the kind that tends to form when northward pushing warm air is clashing with existing cold. The door is now open for some accumulating snow Tuesday into Wednesday of next week thanks to this setup and temperatures during this time frame should stay mainly in the 20's on the mountain. When might it get above freezing ? I remain a little concerned about Friday and the last weekend of January. I've seen believable model scenarios where we mostly avoid the excessive warmth and see only thirties Friday the 26th into Saturday the 27th and I've also seen some reasonable scenarios where we get a bit of rain and a day with temps in the 40's. We've got a hearty base of snow now on the mountain underneath all the recent powder with a lot of water content so I expect to survive whatever comes our way into early February. 

Longer range ensembles have been moving away from the idea of any widespread attack of arctic air in early February. Blocking at high latitudes is simply not setting up in the right place to allow for that threat. That said, the warmup next week across Canada appears short lived and the generally cooperative Pacific combined with some ridging above the Bering Sea is expected to allow arctic air to rebuild over the country referred to sometimes as "The Great White North". Unlike the recent arctic outbreak, New England appears best positioned to be on the receiving end of colder intrusions on the last few days of January into early February. Is it possible to get some of the coldest weather of the season during the first few days of February like we did last year ? Yes ! We've managed to escape a widespread night of sub-zero temps so far and the starts are beginning to align for one in early February. We just need some snowfall to go along with it (appears possible) and the colder outlook to continue into the middle of the month which right now appears hard to see with conflicting indications and teleconnections indices.