The 3 or so inches of snow that fell Sunday evening was very much needed following the stretch of above freezing temperatures late last week. We now enter a stretch of drier weather aided by a dry jet stream. We are still set up to avoid any excessive warmth through the middle of next week or around February 7th, but we have only one real chance for meaningful snow which i will highlight below and a pipe dream early next week.
The cloud-cover stuck with us through all of Monday over the Vermont mountains and though we are expecting predominantly dry weather through the ski day Wednesday, sunshine is expected to stay limited though we should see intervals of blue sky. I am prepared to deliver the news that we have the best stretch of sunshine in weeks on the way however, I can almost promise ! Temperatures are expected to remain just below the freezing both on Tuesday and Wednesday and then creep above the freezing mark Thursday even as clouds thicken.
A clipper system is expected to drop right over the top of us from Quebec Thursday evening and spread some very light and sporadic snow over northern Vermont as it does this. As this system continues to push south and east of us, it will turn winds and provide us with a nice opportunity for snow showers enhanced by our elevation and the unfrozen lake to our west. As we get closer to Friday, I will be able to focus in on stability parameters and better describe the snowfall potential early Friday. One thing we do have a better handle on as of Monday is timing. Snow showers appear likely through early Friday afternoon and then dry air envelops the region thanks in large part to that jet stream I described. If you like bluebird winter days and like them on the weekend, I have good news. Blue sky can be expected both Saturday and Sunday with amazing visibility and afternoon temperatures in the teens and 20's. Though it won't be quite as cold as the weekend of Jan 20th and 21st and certainly sunnier, I would still expect some gusty northwest winds Saturday (20 mph) and sub-zero wind chills. Sunday's winds won't be calm either, but a touch friendlier than Saturday.
The bluebird weather appears likely to continue through Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday of next week. It would take a massive northward shift related to a storm system expected to drench the southeast U.S. Sunday and Monday to disrupt this outlook. Chances are good a northward shift of this magnitude doesn't occur and our stretch of sunshine continues, but one can never say never with these types of events given the absence of a strong polar jet. Assuming it remains sunny in accordance with my current expectations, temperatures will slowly moderate reaching the middle 20's Monday, high 20's Tuesday and near 30 on Wednesday. The clear skies will allow for some chilly overnights early next week and the snow cover puts sub-zero readings in play.
I love how we've managed to avoid the mid-continent torch through the early part of February, but ensembles are starting to provide us more focus on a period of warmer temperatures around the weekend of February 10th. Interestingly the teleconnection indices start to improve by then and colder air is certainly showing signs of reestablishing itself over Canada even as the east coast warms up. The most encouraging feature by mid February is the appearance of some ridging over western North America and Alaska by the middle of the month. Alaska is in the midst of a vicious cold wave that has largely erased what was a very mild start to the year. A good portion of the state is now below normal for January and the state's largest city, Anchorage, is enjoying a high of 10 degrees Monday with a 36 inch snow pack. Yes, it's Alaska but Mad River Glen averages more snow, similar temperatures and more daylight. Speaking of daylight, our first 5 o'clock sunset comes on February 1st this year, just ahead of our big stretch of expected sunshine.
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