Temperatures moderated significantly Monday and it's dramatic enough that one can probably start to smell the next season. Regardless of how the weather pattern turns out, March always features a handful of spring-like days and very often its sandwiched around some of the best powder days of the year. If I had to guess, we should more of that this year.
The short term outlook reflects much of what was just described. I get a little nervous when I see strong periods of south of southwest flow show up over northern Vermont. Those are often not kind to our valley in the winter as it can quite often get warmer than anticipated and eat a lot of snow. In the case of this week, those periods appear isolated and capable of melting some snow in valley areas while the high terrain remains close to the freezing mark. There's also some chances for snowfall that need to be highlighted so here are the details. The first "torch" period comes Monday night and fortunately the flow is expected to weaken by daybreak. My hope is that temperatures just hang out near the freezing mark and thus any wind isn't especially damaging. Clouds and lighter winds Tuesday should prevent readings from getting too high, yet they will be above 40 in valley locations and above freezing for the first time in many lower mountain locations. Some elevation sensitive precipitation then arrives in the afternoon and this should mean snowfall for the mountains and a mix in valley locations. Cooler temperatures Tuesday night should allow the snow to accumulate 2-4 inches by the ski day Wednesday with a slushy inch or so in valley locations. Aside from some lingering flurries Wednesday morning, the day will be dry with some intervals of sunshine. The now retreated polar air barely makes a reappearance in northern Vermont and just in time for the arrival of our next system which appears benign but has enough moisture to make some noise. I would very much prefer it if this very weak area of low pressure early Thursday would make a pass just a bit further south as opposed to veering left at the last 2nd into Quebec. As it stands, the northern half of Vermont is in line for a decent dose of overrunning snowfall early Thursday and then another period of warming south to southwest flow in the afternoon. The day is thus expected to feature some powdery mountain turns in the morning and valley melting in the afternoon, a fairly typical trait for March. The snow shower setup for Friday looks promising and this is likely going to make it the best of the week with temperatures falling back toward 20 degrees and healthy north to northwest flow bringing in some supplemental moisture. Total snowfall appears to be in the 3-6 inch category Thursday and will include some wet snow in lower elevations and a powdery 3-6 for Friday with the return of gusty winds. Warm periods appear to be Monday night and Thursday afternoon.
2024-25 has had a distinct trend of Sunday powder days and the weather is lining up to present that to us again on the first full weekend in March. Models have been split as to the track of what is expected to be a very vigorous clipper system and one that should start bringing snow to northern Vermont late Saturday into Saturday night followed by snow showers on Sunday. Saturday's temps appear seasonable with lighter winds under the clouds and some potential afternoon snow while Sunday appears very cold with temperatures 10-15 along with some wind. Final snowfall will depend on the track, but I would put odds of 3 inches of powder for Sunday at 70 percent.
Ensembles have backed off the intensity of the cold pattern for early March though they are still supportive of a generally favorable jet stream through March 10th. It's probably worth highlighting a potential trouble spot in the recent European ensemble data around March 5th and 6th though given the supportive feedback mechanisms coming off a cold winter, this trouble spot could easily become our next chance for a big snow. Regardless, there will be several opportunities for some early March snowfall beginning with the Sunday event already highlighted.
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