Warm pattern looking intense beginning March 5th.

 It's been a season of mostly positive updates and a lot of upside surprises. I don't recall having to post a blog update quite like this one in quite a while. The EPO, a trusted ally for much of the season, turned on us a few week ago. We got a respite that timed itself almost perfectly with the blizzard that impacted southern New England earlier this week, but as we head into March, it's expected to move the wrong direction again and in a big way. We've fought off these head winds quite valiantly so far and will continue to so for a few more days and then the dam breaks around March 5. 

Friday's weather, at least the rain, clouds and low visibility, is now expected to be so far south, that the entirety of New England gets the bluebird special to finish the work week. This one comes with temperatures that almost exactly normal and that includes a cold morning of around 10 degrees and a pleasant afternoon of around 30 degrees. Expect more clouds for Saturday with a mild southwesterly breeze developing capable of sending the thermometer above 40-degrees near the base. Models do indicate some mixed precipitation during the day. It's both brief and relatively light with the precip type highly dependent on elevation. 

It's a very impressive shot of arctic air coming in early Sunday and gusty northwest winds. A dusting of snow is likely to accompany the push of colder weather while much of the actual ski day actually experiences blue skies, those winds I mentioned and temperatures holding in the high teens. The clearing skies sets us up for a bitterly cold Sunday night and perhaps the last subzero morning of the season. Certainly it's the coldest pairing of days we will see in March with Monday's temperatures also remaining in the teens albeit with less wind. 

Our chances for significant snow hinge on what is possible in association with the milder push of air that will begin on Tuesday. Can we establish an overrunning surface worthy of some steady snowfall ? Where is the most likely spot for any snowfall ? How much can actually fall ? These are all questions models are wrestling with as it relates to the weather on Tuesday, March 3rd. As of now, the consensus indication would not suggest any more than a few inches. 

The EPO is expected to surge toward a positive 2 and arctic air is indicated to go into major retreat mode beginning around March 3rd and 4th. It's an adverse teleconnection situation and the long wave jet stream set up looks even worse. Several blow torch days are indicated on multiple forecast models between March 5th and 13th. The setup capable appears capable of producing temperatures well above 50 and maybe even 60. The hard-earned cold weather feedbacks will need to work overtime to mitigate the impacts of this pattern were it to verify. I like the corn horn days though I would prefer a smaller dose this early.