Here we go !! Big holiday weekend only days away and the high drama begins in VT. And yes, the snow event for Thursday night is still on the calendar. This is not an aesthetically appealing system on the weather map. It is the first in a series of events resulting from split flow in the jet stream. In the end however, it will never become a very organized storm and the light snow Thursday night into early Friday morning will total between 2 and 5 inches. Temperatures at the base of the mountain will also be close to freezing giving the snow a wetter consistency. Higher elevations should see some decent powder.
If Thursday night's storm is "beer in a shot glass" then the storm Sunday can be described as the "full keg". Its all about the split flow in the jet performing its normal tasks. Energy rotating through the southern branch of the jet early in the weekend will begin sucking moisture out of the Gulf Saturday. By early Sunday, a major winter storm will be moving northeast out of the southern states and toward the east coast. 3 Successive runs of the American GFS model complete the proverbial "bomb" with this storm, rapidly deepening the system as it tracks close to Long Island and over Cape Cod. Heavy snow, high winds, the whole gamut would be the result for later Sunday and Sunday night. Hypothetical snowfall totals ? well I think one can get the drift, no pun intended.
The reality, even without the repeated frustrations that have been so prevalent this winter, is this. The consensus of model guidance still takes this amazing looking weather system too far out to sea. The Canadian model is not so subtle by suggesting, "what storm?". The European shows a nice looking storm moving from the Gulf Coast to the Virginia Tidewater area, but the storm never takes a critical northward turn up the coast and rides innocently out into the Atlantic bringing rain and snow to areas much farther south. Even some of the American GFS ensemble members seem to suggest some internal strife in model-land. Interestingly, I have been told the GFS has recently had a "physics" upgrade which we all hope will improve the performance of a model that has performed quite bad this winter. It will have an early chance to prove its worth this weekend.
It is really just a timing question at this point. A clipper system is rotating through the Great Lakes just as this massive Gulf storm is strengthening. The American model is moving the southern energy along more efficiently allowing the upper air support from the clipper to inject its energy from behind, the we would prefer it. By moving the southern stream energy slower, the European shows the clipper system moving atop the Gulf storm, thus making it more difficult for the storm to make the northward turn. This is certainly a potentially big event and worth watching but the chances for big snow are still less than 50 percent right now. What was that line Jim Carrey unleashed in Dumb and Dumber ? "So your saying there's a chance".
Beyond Sunday La Nina will try and show its dark side again. One and perhaps two pushes of mild weather could impact the region between the middle of next week and the weekend of the 25th and 26th. It is still possible much of the mild air is confined to the Mid Atlantic and southeastern states so we will just wait and see.
So we found out today that there are organizations out making a concerted effort to poison the global warming debate with propaganda. The goal ? Plant the seeds of doubt and hope the garden grows. It worked, it seems half the country's political establishment feels the issue isn't even credible. The science is crap they say, look at what happened with climate-gate, the data was manipulated. Funny because if it doesn't come form a misguided politician, it comes from shadowy places and dark alleyways. Never does it actually come from a credible scientific group who are actually willing to go on the record with serious contradictory evidence. Well now, one of those dark alleyways got illuminated.
http://www.nytimes.com/2012/02/16/science/earth/in-heartland-institute-leak-a-plan-to-discredit-climate-teaching.html
There is nothing wrong with being a skeptic and be cynical of the aggressive assertions made by the climate science community. I know plenty of people in my own circle who wear that with pride. To brush the issue aside as non-credible is just plain silly. Certain political leaders should be wasting less time trying to undermine climate scientists and more time assessing the actual risks involved with climate change and devising policies to deal with it accordingly. It isn't just about whether or not you like Al Gore, the stakes are much higher.
Wednesday, February 15, 2012
Monday, February 13, 2012
3 precipitation producers in the next week should keep it interesting
It hardly looks like the ideal weather pattern but it will be an active one with plenty to blog about over the next week or so including three potential weather producers. Its still a few days from our first shot for snow and we have already seen most of the cold from the past weekend move out. Clouds should keep temperatures close to the freezing mark both Tuesday and Wednesday and flurries or a period of light snow could fall from those clouds later Tuesday into Tuesday night. Any sun on Thursday will also give way to clouds in advance of the first discussion-worthy system. This storm has very little cold air to work with but its attempt at making a run up the St Lawrence Valley will get thwarted when the Atlantic Coast, as it often does, magnetically pulls much of the system's energy to the coast. This process is one of the reasons why interior New England can be such an ideal location for snow from east coast storms. At least that is the case during most years.
Precipitation should begin as snow but with temperatures within a few degrees of freezing it could be on the gloppy side at lower elevations. Snow should continue into Friday morning with accumulations in the 4-8 inch range. Glop or powder, the snow will obviously be very welcome prior to what is a big holiday weekend. The "Ski the East" boys are looking to do the Unconventional Terrain Competition this Saturday so hopefully the Friday morning event is enough to make that a success.
A less aggressive east coast trough amplification this weekend will ensure seasonable temperatures through President's day. There is also a clipper system rotating through the Great Lakes which could provide at least a light accumulation of snow Saturday night into Sunday morning. This would be the soft bigotry of low expectations. It is worth mentioning "The Gulf", the buildup of moisture down there and what could ultimately result in a storm riding up the east coast. The storm would be advancing up the coast as the clipper is spreading its limited clouds and moisture in to the northeast. The general consensus is still to take this system too far away from the coast for a big interior New England hit. Its worth keeping an eye on though.
In the wake of this strengthening storm (offshore or not) we should see a reenforcing shot of cold for Sunday and Monday and some of the better skiing of the season. The AO however will be neutralized by early next week and with the emergence of a large "La Nina-like" Gulf of Alaska upper ridge, much of the best action will shift into the west. The first weather system that results from this pattern could therefore be a rough one for us with ice and rain included in the package. In past years however we have seen these patterns go both ways. Some have been a debacle consisting of rain and warm weather. Others have actually been quite good with some of the best snow falling over Vermont. We can guarantee that the skiing will quite bad further south as very warm weather could grip a large portion of the Mid-Atlantic and Southeast.
Precipitation should begin as snow but with temperatures within a few degrees of freezing it could be on the gloppy side at lower elevations. Snow should continue into Friday morning with accumulations in the 4-8 inch range. Glop or powder, the snow will obviously be very welcome prior to what is a big holiday weekend. The "Ski the East" boys are looking to do the Unconventional Terrain Competition this Saturday so hopefully the Friday morning event is enough to make that a success.
A less aggressive east coast trough amplification this weekend will ensure seasonable temperatures through President's day. There is also a clipper system rotating through the Great Lakes which could provide at least a light accumulation of snow Saturday night into Sunday morning. This would be the soft bigotry of low expectations. It is worth mentioning "The Gulf", the buildup of moisture down there and what could ultimately result in a storm riding up the east coast. The storm would be advancing up the coast as the clipper is spreading its limited clouds and moisture in to the northeast. The general consensus is still to take this system too far away from the coast for a big interior New England hit. Its worth keeping an eye on though.
In the wake of this strengthening storm (offshore or not) we should see a reenforcing shot of cold for Sunday and Monday and some of the better skiing of the season. The AO however will be neutralized by early next week and with the emergence of a large "La Nina-like" Gulf of Alaska upper ridge, much of the best action will shift into the west. The first weather system that results from this pattern could therefore be a rough one for us with ice and rain included in the package. In past years however we have seen these patterns go both ways. Some have been a debacle consisting of rain and warm weather. Others have actually been quite good with some of the best snow falling over Vermont. We can guarantee that the skiing will quite bad further south as very warm weather could grip a large portion of the Mid-Atlantic and Southeast.
Saturday, February 11, 2012
Another weekend without much snow, time to focus on the next one late in the upcoming week
I have began the process of emotionally detaching myself from this 2012 winter. It is a necessary evil at this point and it is being done to preserve my mental health. We were hopeful that the current pattern which has most of the ingredients necessary to bring us away from these dark times has not come through. We got some bitterly cold weather which will persist through the weekend, we got a few inches of snow, but I had hoped for one of those 30-40 inch weeks. It never happened.
The polar vortex will gradually rotate out of southeastern Canada early in the upcoming week and temperatures will begin a slow moderation. For the first time this winter, we have legitimate split flow in the jet stream. This stems from energy in the jet stream undercutting the deteriorating ridge in western North America. We just can't get enough split flow and I want to say I am happy to see it, even for a little while, but remember I am not making the emotional investment. It's just not worth it. That being said, a significant weather producer will move from the Rockies into the Plains Wednesday. We will be running low on cold weather by then. Temperatures Tuesday and Wednesday might even sneak above freezing during the afternoon (although overnights should remain chilly). By Thursday clouds should arrive and precipitation should follow either later in the day or at night. What happens from there depends on a few different variables most important of which is the track of this storm. Right now the system appears as it it wants to make a run at the eastern Great Lakes but transition its energy to the coast. This would bring some decent snows to the region but lets just wait and set ourselves up for another big disappointment.
The storm's energy is significant energy enough to yank down some Canadian chill. Much of Canada will in fact be free of arctic air by next weekend meaning that temperatures will be seasonable but considerably warmer than the current weekend. This is the all important president's day holiday which should be free of any rain, free of any bitter cold, hopefully have at least some fresh snow from Thursday's system and perhaps some additional snow from any weak disturbance in the jet stream or some simple terrain enhancement.
The "classic" La Nina structure of the jet stream which is expected to take shape by next weekend will have the effect of re-positioning a lot of the action out west by the 20th of the month. I think next weekend into president's day is safe. Beyond that however all bets are off. Are we going to preserve enough of the high latitude blocking either across the North Atlantic or the Polar regions to thwart another big thaw ? Maybe. It's disconcerting but the only thing we can do at this point is to lower expectations and write off any rain event as a byproduct of a very bad winter.
The polar vortex will gradually rotate out of southeastern Canada early in the upcoming week and temperatures will begin a slow moderation. For the first time this winter, we have legitimate split flow in the jet stream. This stems from energy in the jet stream undercutting the deteriorating ridge in western North America. We just can't get enough split flow and I want to say I am happy to see it, even for a little while, but remember I am not making the emotional investment. It's just not worth it. That being said, a significant weather producer will move from the Rockies into the Plains Wednesday. We will be running low on cold weather by then. Temperatures Tuesday and Wednesday might even sneak above freezing during the afternoon (although overnights should remain chilly). By Thursday clouds should arrive and precipitation should follow either later in the day or at night. What happens from there depends on a few different variables most important of which is the track of this storm. Right now the system appears as it it wants to make a run at the eastern Great Lakes but transition its energy to the coast. This would bring some decent snows to the region but lets just wait and set ourselves up for another big disappointment.
The storm's energy is significant energy enough to yank down some Canadian chill. Much of Canada will in fact be free of arctic air by next weekend meaning that temperatures will be seasonable but considerably warmer than the current weekend. This is the all important president's day holiday which should be free of any rain, free of any bitter cold, hopefully have at least some fresh snow from Thursday's system and perhaps some additional snow from any weak disturbance in the jet stream or some simple terrain enhancement.
The "classic" La Nina structure of the jet stream which is expected to take shape by next weekend will have the effect of re-positioning a lot of the action out west by the 20th of the month. I think next weekend into president's day is safe. Beyond that however all bets are off. Are we going to preserve enough of the high latitude blocking either across the North Atlantic or the Polar regions to thwart another big thaw ? Maybe. It's disconcerting but the only thing we can do at this point is to lower expectations and write off any rain event as a byproduct of a very bad winter.
Wednesday, February 8, 2012
Light snow Saturday, bigger storm still a long shot
Our attention is now focused on the weekend, a Polar Vortex and a clipper system. The European model has been the lone sailor showing that this system tries to blow up south of Long Island and potentially bring some significant snows to New England. Even the Euro has been a bit fickle with this system however and has yet to provide details with any consistency. Personally I am having doubts about this potential storm. The "PV" can be a very overwhelming feature consisting of very strong winds at jet stream level which often act to guide East Coast systems out to sea before they attain any real strength. Nevertheless, the clipper itself, even without the support of Atlantic moisture, can deliver the mountain a few inches of snow Friday night. It will be a very cold weekend, one of the coldest of the season with well below zero wind chills Saturday and a few nights of well below zero actual temperatures through Monday.
We are going to lose the support of the AO in roughly a week and the pattern will transition into a more traditional La Nina looking set-up. A large ridge across the Gulf of Alaska, a trough and unsettled weather over much of the west, warm weather in the southeast U.S. and a big question mark for New England. Actually the question mark relates to what should be a significant weather system that arrives between the 15th and 17th of the month. The breakdown of the "negative AO" opens up the possibility for a non-snow event but its still "to be decided".
We are going to lose the support of the AO in roughly a week and the pattern will transition into a more traditional La Nina looking set-up. A large ridge across the Gulf of Alaska, a trough and unsettled weather over much of the west, warm weather in the southeast U.S. and a big question mark for New England. Actually the question mark relates to what should be a significant weather system that arrives between the 15th and 17th of the month. The breakdown of the "negative AO" opens up the possibility for a non-snow event but its still "to be decided".
Monday, February 6, 2012
You can't spell "Elite" without E-L-I but its time to focus on spelling out the word "Snow"
It was another terrific Pats vs Giants Super Bowl and a thrilling victory for the G-Men. A few bounces here, a less banged up tight end there and things could be different so I solute the Patriots for a great season and a great effort. For a while there, I thought they had the Giants "D" figured out. All that said, Eli needs to get the credit he deserves. Yeah he has some great receivers to throw to, but the whole "Awww Shucks" thing everyone gets on him for serves him well. He has the uncanny ability to shake off all the pressure and make big throw after big throw no matter the gravity of the situation.
So the Giants did their part, it is now mother nature's turn. Let me preface the following by stating that I am going to only remain cautiously optimistic since selling my soul to powdery forecast has done nothing for us. We are finally in the throws of a generally favorable high latitude blocking pattern but we continue to wait for the snow. We had alluded to a weaker disturbance that had the potential to freshen things up for Thursday but this will slide innocently to the south. Temperatures with the help of sunshine, will exceed the freezing mark for a few hours both Thursday and Friday afternoons
That brings us to the weekend and the big southward advance of the Polar Vortex. To a weathergeek like me, anything with the word "vortex" is going to be exciting, so I consider the "PV" to be a fun topic of conversation. In the two days since the last update I had hoped we could better sort the picture out this weekend. We have made a little progress but uncertainty remains. Generally speaking the Euro still shows a softer PV invasion and as a result, a clipper system is able to get some traction with moisture from the Atlantic Ocean and spread snow across interior New England Saturday. The American model shows the PV overwhelming the region resulting in a very cold but generally drier forecast. I am more inclined to side with the Euro on this although not wholeheartedly. This would mean our next chance for accumulating snow is Saturday.
A second impulse Sunday could bring another round of snow showers but it will be remembered more for triggering the southward advance of what is likely to be the coldest weather of the season. Bitterly cold temperatures is typically the end result of any intimate relationship that develops between New England and a Polar Vortex and this should be no exception. Temperatures of 15 or 20 below zero Sunday night or Monday is not out of the question.
The longer range outlook has improved slightly. We should see a significant temperature moderation by the middle of next week but the pattern looks significantly more active. This includes two potential precipitation producers in the period between the 14th and 18th of the month. Although the AO is expected to remain negative the ridge/trough axis across North America will shift west. It will resemble a fairly typical La Nina set up but I am hoping the support of the AO on the favorable side of what could be a succession of storms.
No "kiss of deathing" allowed in the comments section !!! Lets keep it clean ;)
So the Giants did their part, it is now mother nature's turn. Let me preface the following by stating that I am going to only remain cautiously optimistic since selling my soul to powdery forecast has done nothing for us. We are finally in the throws of a generally favorable high latitude blocking pattern but we continue to wait for the snow. We had alluded to a weaker disturbance that had the potential to freshen things up for Thursday but this will slide innocently to the south. Temperatures with the help of sunshine, will exceed the freezing mark for a few hours both Thursday and Friday afternoons
That brings us to the weekend and the big southward advance of the Polar Vortex. To a weathergeek like me, anything with the word "vortex" is going to be exciting, so I consider the "PV" to be a fun topic of conversation. In the two days since the last update I had hoped we could better sort the picture out this weekend. We have made a little progress but uncertainty remains. Generally speaking the Euro still shows a softer PV invasion and as a result, a clipper system is able to get some traction with moisture from the Atlantic Ocean and spread snow across interior New England Saturday. The American model shows the PV overwhelming the region resulting in a very cold but generally drier forecast. I am more inclined to side with the Euro on this although not wholeheartedly. This would mean our next chance for accumulating snow is Saturday.
A second impulse Sunday could bring another round of snow showers but it will be remembered more for triggering the southward advance of what is likely to be the coldest weather of the season. Bitterly cold temperatures is typically the end result of any intimate relationship that develops between New England and a Polar Vortex and this should be no exception. Temperatures of 15 or 20 below zero Sunday night or Monday is not out of the question.
The longer range outlook has improved slightly. We should see a significant temperature moderation by the middle of next week but the pattern looks significantly more active. This includes two potential precipitation producers in the period between the 14th and 18th of the month. Although the AO is expected to remain negative the ridge/trough axis across North America will shift west. It will resemble a fairly typical La Nina set up but I am hoping the support of the AO on the favorable side of what could be a succession of storms.
No "kiss of deathing" allowed in the comments section !!! Lets keep it clean ;)
Sunday, February 5, 2012
Snow remains a possbility late in the week
At the very least, I hope we are at the beginning of a long stretch void of any rain. We are expecting above-freezing temperatures Monday but we should keep this short streak alive as temperatures for the remainder of the week return to seasonable levels without rain. It has been an annoying habit on the blog to keep pushing back the next chance for snow. We won't do that this time which is a moral victory of sorts. What looks to be the most pathetic of disturbances will undercut the large western ridge and bring moisture into New England Thursday. This occurs just prior to when the Polar Vortex across Canada makes its southward descent into the United States. The weak weather system Thursday is nothing you can take to the bank but could provide the region with 1-4 inches. The arrival of the Polar Vortex also brings the chance for snow but this too is uncertain. If the PV progresses slow enough it can allow time for its associated clipper system to interact with the Atlantic, strengthen and spread more significant snows to both the Green and White Mountains in the Friday/Saturday time frame. If it makes a rapid descent, it will simply overwhelm the pattern and suppress any storm development. We would thus see only a period of snow showers before it turns bitterly cold for the weekend. Models have been provided a variety of answers to these questions but its nice to see two chances for at least some powder in the 2/9-2/11 time frame.
Beyond next weekend marked an even more uncertain time as indicated in the last update. The American GFS Ensemble indicating cold the European Ensemble back to warm. Both packages however showed the all important very negative AO. As of the current update both continue to show the negative NAO and have added a little more clarity in the form of a compromise. The bitterly cold temperatures that should dominate for the weekend will give way to yet another warm-up in the Monday the 13th to Wednesday the 15th time frame. The warmer temperatures could prove to be a another perilous stretch but it should be temporary as the support of both the AO and NAO should allow for the return of both colder temperatures and snow to return for the President's Day holiday.
That is all for now, enjoy the Super Bowl, it should be a good one.
Beyond next weekend marked an even more uncertain time as indicated in the last update. The American GFS Ensemble indicating cold the European Ensemble back to warm. Both packages however showed the all important very negative AO. As of the current update both continue to show the negative NAO and have added a little more clarity in the form of a compromise. The bitterly cold temperatures that should dominate for the weekend will give way to yet another warm-up in the Monday the 13th to Wednesday the 15th time frame. The warmer temperatures could prove to be a another perilous stretch but it should be temporary as the support of both the AO and NAO should allow for the return of both colder temperatures and snow to return for the President's Day holiday.
That is all for now, enjoy the Super Bowl, it should be a good one.
Thursday, February 2, 2012
Cooler temperatures return but we are dry for another week
Across the entire continent of North America, there is only significant weather producer. Its a significnat one, a blizzard, poised to bury much of eastern Colorado with snow. Eastern Colorado and western Kansas are lonely places however, void of mountains and most vegetation. Resorts such as A-Basin, Keystone, Copper, Vail and Aspen are in the central and western sections of Colorado, west of the divide. Those areas will actually only get a few inches out of this storm proving that it has been a very painful year for almost everyone. The exception ? The Canadian Rockies which has reaped the benefits of the same very active Pacific Jet stream I have been groaning about all year.
The "loosening" of this active Pacific Jet will occur on schedule and the result will be the development of a large upper level Ridge across western North America. This feature will be the biggest in the Northern Hemiphsere for a period of a few days, so big in fact that it will take longer to funnel cold toward the eastern third of North America. Temperatures will be close to seasonable this weekend but the "blizzard" across the western Plains will not have a reinvigorating catalyst when it moves east and it will innocently move toward the Mid-Atlantic coast late Saturday then off the coast Sunday without threatening any part of New England with precipitation.
The beginning of next week is also expected to be benign with temperatures making another charge toward above-freezing levels Monday afternoon. Tuesday should see more clouds as the front marking the leading edge of colder temperatures marches southeast. This front will be riding the momentum of the aforementioned western ridge, it doesn't have much in the way of moisture to work with but flurries or a brief period of light snow is possible Tuesday and Tuesday night before another we enjoy another dry and seasonable day Wednesday.
The next chance of significant snow will come toward the end of next week in what appears to be an interesting time frame. As next week continues to progress, the ridge across the west will allow a polar vortex to move south from the polar regions to eastern Canada. Recent runs of many of the computer models have suggested that the impact of this "PV" will be confined to eastern Canada and the northeast U.S. next weekend. Certainly it could result in some of the coldest weather of the season but we are in dire need of a bit more than just bitter chill. We need some of this "PV" energy, even a small piece of it, to combine with undercutting Pacific energy to produce a storm. Its not an impossible task but requires "split flow" in the jet stream. The polar component of the flow looping around the western ridge deliving us the cold and upper air support and a southern branch of the jet delivering the moisture. We haven't heard much talk of "split flow" the last two years since La Nina makes it a tough sell. I would love to see it return however since it has certainly provided us with some epic times.
So we think a vague picture has emerged regarding next weekend including cold weather and hopefully at least a little new snow. Beyond that however begins an all out war between the two major ensemble packages. It is one of the biggest disagreements I have ever seen in the 10-15 day time frame. Interestingly, both ensembles keep a blocking pattern in place through the AO. The European however destroys the western ridge completely, showing another sharp tightening of the Pacific Jet and ultimately a return to zonal flow across the country. The American GFS weakens the western ridge but does not eliminate it. Instead, ridging that stretches from the North Atlantic, over Greenland and to the poles evolves gradually into a large "block" that allows for a continuation of both cold and frequent chances for snow. The European has been winning these arguments for much of the year but this battle has not been fought with the underlying teleconnection indices as favorable as they are now. I remain frustrated but have not abandoned hope.
The "loosening" of this active Pacific Jet will occur on schedule and the result will be the development of a large upper level Ridge across western North America. This feature will be the biggest in the Northern Hemiphsere for a period of a few days, so big in fact that it will take longer to funnel cold toward the eastern third of North America. Temperatures will be close to seasonable this weekend but the "blizzard" across the western Plains will not have a reinvigorating catalyst when it moves east and it will innocently move toward the Mid-Atlantic coast late Saturday then off the coast Sunday without threatening any part of New England with precipitation.
The beginning of next week is also expected to be benign with temperatures making another charge toward above-freezing levels Monday afternoon. Tuesday should see more clouds as the front marking the leading edge of colder temperatures marches southeast. This front will be riding the momentum of the aforementioned western ridge, it doesn't have much in the way of moisture to work with but flurries or a brief period of light snow is possible Tuesday and Tuesday night before another we enjoy another dry and seasonable day Wednesday.
The next chance of significant snow will come toward the end of next week in what appears to be an interesting time frame. As next week continues to progress, the ridge across the west will allow a polar vortex to move south from the polar regions to eastern Canada. Recent runs of many of the computer models have suggested that the impact of this "PV" will be confined to eastern Canada and the northeast U.S. next weekend. Certainly it could result in some of the coldest weather of the season but we are in dire need of a bit more than just bitter chill. We need some of this "PV" energy, even a small piece of it, to combine with undercutting Pacific energy to produce a storm. Its not an impossible task but requires "split flow" in the jet stream. The polar component of the flow looping around the western ridge deliving us the cold and upper air support and a southern branch of the jet delivering the moisture. We haven't heard much talk of "split flow" the last two years since La Nina makes it a tough sell. I would love to see it return however since it has certainly provided us with some epic times.
So we think a vague picture has emerged regarding next weekend including cold weather and hopefully at least a little new snow. Beyond that however begins an all out war between the two major ensemble packages. It is one of the biggest disagreements I have ever seen in the 10-15 day time frame. Interestingly, both ensembles keep a blocking pattern in place through the AO. The European however destroys the western ridge completely, showing another sharp tightening of the Pacific Jet and ultimately a return to zonal flow across the country. The American GFS weakens the western ridge but does not eliminate it. Instead, ridging that stretches from the North Atlantic, over Greenland and to the poles evolves gradually into a large "block" that allows for a continuation of both cold and frequent chances for snow. The European has been winning these arguments for much of the year but this battle has not been fought with the underlying teleconnection indices as favorable as they are now. I remain frustrated but have not abandoned hope.
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