4-plus inches of snow early Thursday and another round of internet hypecasting gone bad

Can't say I am especially impressed with how our Wednesday Night/Thursday snow event is shaping up. Simply put, the area of moisture is very disorganized and the coastal low pressure center appears to be taking shape only very slowly. That said, no reason to think we can't score a quick 4 inches beginning around 10 pm tonight. If we are lucky, maybe we can begin Thursday with 6 or 7 inches of fresh powder. Though I don't think temperatures will get excessively warm on the mountain Thursday, it will be mild enough (35 degrees) for snow conditions to become wetter as the day progresses. The first several hours Thursday will be powdery so be like a local and ski it early if you can.

After spending a few hours above the freezing mark Thursday at lower elevations, temperatures will fall back into the 20's and there appears to be just enough moisture for a some terrain enhanced snow showers.  Friday will then feature healthy amounts of late-February sunshine and afternoon temperatures in the 30's.

From a meteorological perspective, the upcoming weekend weather system is considerably more formidable and its arrival, quite unfortunately, coincides with the jet stream ridge in the southeast U.S. reaching peak strength. Saturday will begin the day sunny with awesome visibility and very little wind but clouds should overspread the region later in the day as temperatures inch their way above the freezing mark yet again. I won't lie, this does not appear to be a particularly productive event with precipitation beginning as a mixed bag of sleet and snow and then going to a period of freezing rain during the overnight hours Saturday night. All is not lost however, the window of time for any serious melting still appears very tight with this storm since the cold wedge of air will make every attempt to maintain its footing. Some plain rain is possible during the day Sunday but I expect temperatures to remain in the 30's. Better still are some storm induced instability which should move over the region Sunday night into Monday allowing conditions to align for a period of terrain enhanced snow. I wouldn't at all be surprised if the high country gets some substantial "recovery powder" on the backside of this storm but the forecast period remains a few days away so expectations could change.

That third system that was discussed a few days ago on the blog became the focal point for a weather geek twitter bonanza yesterday with a run of the European model indicating a full blown winter nor'easter (and a big one also). I would thus like to take another moment, add in a double shot of sarcasm, and thank all the attention-seeking hypecasters who went out of their way to tweet about one run of one model, sensationalize and effectively provide multiple kisses of death to "what could've been" !!! Yeah I am  a little superstitious but also becoming more grumpy with age and taking less kindly to many weather personalities, so desperate to make a name for themselves, that they feel the need to provide the public with misleading information. Many of those same people will brush it off as a jest when the data inevitably changes. Unfortunately however, this is the social media world we live in where everyone and everything is really out to just compete for your attention.

We still do have a chance for snow during the middle or later part of next week (or both). There are no indications today of a big storm but there have been consistent indications of possible snow and continued support for a colder more productive pattern beginning around the turn of the month. Similar to the last update, evidence of split flow in early March consisting of a jet stream ridge over Alaska and activity in the jet stream underneath that ridge, is often a terrific indicator of for both ocld and stormy east coast weather. Even if the snow potential for next week is vaporized by the jinxy cat hypecasters, there should be more chances in early March. And yes, I poke fun affectionately speaking because I can and I like to avoid the monotony. Enjoy our dose of snow !