Not an ideal stretch of weather days this week but we've seen worse and February will make a comeback

Mad River Glen was able to procure another very successful week, squeezing out almost two feet of snow out of the available moisture, which was actually somewhat limited given the proximity of the powerful polar vortex and record cold over the Midwestern United States. The weather pattern, which has generally delivered in northern Vermont, in its many various states this season, will continue to evolve very rapidly with much of the cold and unsettled weather shifting its focus on the western parts of North America, not only during the upcoming week, but into the middle of February. Colorado, in particular, seems poised to have an exceptional stretch of skiing over the next 2 weeks with several big powder days likely throughout early February. The cold will relent and dramatically so over much of the eastern United States and Vermont will be playing defense as it often does during such weather patterns. As the details of this week gained some clarity, I was hoping we could avert much of the adversity. A lot of it, we actually will but the prospects for snow over the next 7 days don't look especially great.

There are varying degrees of "thaws" in Vermont. We've all seen the devastating variety. You know, the kind that include rain, wind, excessive dewpoints and 50-degree temperatures. Those have the capability of obliterating snow conditions in Vermont and often times taking out the snowpack completely in low lying areas or even on the mountain itself. We saw a pretty moderate thaw on January 24th which included an inch of rain and 40-degree temperatures but our large base of snow more or less survived that one. On the scale of things, the surge of temperatures on Monday appears very tame. Temperatures will approach 40 and remain above freezing much of Monday night but rainfall from the bypassing weather system appears very minimal, amounting to about a tenth of an inch or less. No thaw is harmless and any rain and subsequent freeze will obviously put an end to the powdery conditions but such is life skiing Vermont.

After the mild start this Tuesday, the refreeze occurs in the evening as temperatures fall back into the 20's, eventually dropping to 10 by Wednesday morning. The ski day on Wednesday appears to be a quiet one with some limited sunshine and readings rebounding into the 20's though unfortunately no new snow. Our late-week weather system certainly appears to be the stronger of the two impacting the state over the next 7 days. This being a broad low pressure conglomeration that will move out of the Rocky Mountains Wednesday and bring us some clouds by Wednesday night or early Thursday and precipitation shortly after. The mid-week cold is not a supported by an especially strong area of high pressure to our north but nonetheless, the "torchy" air which will invade the Mid-Atlantic will stay well south of Vermont. Precipitation has a chance at arriving as some snow or at the least fall as a wintry mix for a time before going to a period of freezing rain. There are still a couple of open avenues as far as possible outcomes for this storm and a considerable amount of disagreement regarding the track of this storm. I still think there is a chance for some decent accumulating snow Thursday on the front side of this storm but there is also a chance for a period of cold plain rain Thursday night or early Friday. We should be able to shake out the final details over the next 48 hours.

Colder air should bring temperatures back to more seasonable levels for the weekend but again, snowfall appears limited. High pressure should provide for a great day of sunshine Saturday, February 9th and the good visibility should continue into at least part of Sunday even high clouds start to advance into the region from the next weather system,

The prevailing weather pattern beyond the weekend looks similar to this week but there are indications that the 7-day period beginning February 11th will be a colder version of what we are expecting during the coming week. Though the Pacific looks a little feisty there are more indications (especially in the data early Sunday) of some ridging in the jet stream extending into the high latitudes of Alaska. Though the specific impact of this is up for debate on the various ensemble packages, I fully expect some of the warmth positioned along the east coast this week to be suppressed and the storm track to shift south. I know there are fears out there that we are in the process of degenerating into our third consecutive February collapse, but honestly I really don't see it. Just like a few days ago, there continue to be glaring indications that arctic air will remain a factor throughout the month and will not get scourged from North America entirely. After a rough stretch over the next few days, I expect a plethora of more optimistic news.