Our late week storm will veer well north of us but next week is showing some needed promise

This week is not turning out as we had hoped. We got an old fashion torch early in the week with some limited sun, some wind and temperatures that exceeded expectations. Our late week storm does not appear intent on cooperating either. Though it appears to be a decent looking system, it will track up over Lake Huron and into western Quebec which is just a horrible trajectory if one is to be perfectly blunt about it. In spite of all that, the existing cold over North America is fighting hard to limit some of the damage and in the end we will live to fight into next week which continues to show promise and potential and hopefully will deliver.

A weakened area of colder Canadian air will ease into the region Tuesday night and send temperatures back toward more typical February levels by Wednesday morning. Temperatures will remain in the 20's through the afternoon and some breaks in the clouds during the morning will be replaced by an overcast sky late in the day ahead of the bigger and aforementioned weather system.

As promised we will have an overrunning surface to work with on the front end of this storm, but temperatures in what is considered the middle layers of the troposphere are very marginal, even by Wednesday evening when the first area of precipitation arrives. If this initial area of moisture is potent enough, a period of snow is likely but lighter precipitation is more likely to fall as a mix of sleet and freezing rain for several hours Wednesday night with temperatures in the middle or upper 20's. Temperatures will remain in sub-freezing territory for a good chunk of Thursday and if we can keep some of that freezing rain away Wednesday night, one might be able to sneak a few good turns on the hill. Much of the day Thursday will in fact be precipitation free but it will remain cloudy and visibility is likely to be limited. The surge of milder air is expected to intensify Thursday evening and night thanks to the undesirable track of this storm. Readings will climb above the freezing mark as the night progresses and a period of rain is likely though fortunately, rainfall amounts again appear limited. If the lower troposphere becomes "well-mixed" during the early part of Friday, temperatures could make a brief surge into the 50's but colder air is expected to make a quick return Friday evening and this return should be accompanied by some snow flurries.

Wintry temperatures should prevail for the upcoming weekend with readings generally in the teens or 20's but moisture appears very limited so my expectations for new snowfall are very minimal. Those expectations should change next week however. Though the structure of the pattern is largely the same with a negative PNA continuing focus winter weather on the western United States, the cold is expected to broaden its influence and push the storm track south and east. There have been hints for several days now of a storm in the Feb 12-13 time frame and a decent track will deliver some very favorable results and at a needed time.

Beyond February 13 we can expect colder weather to prevail through the rest of the week though the severity will fall well short of what Vermont saw on multiple occasions during the month of January. The weekend of the 16th and 17th may again see temperatures moderate as cold air in the middle part of North America continues to battle it out with a ridge in the jet stream which will be the focus of milder air that is expected to be fairly persistent in the southeast. I've seen opinions about the weather this month ranging from the return of the Polar Vortex which I find to be, frankly, ridiculous to the notion that winter is more or less over. The latter I don't expect either but from Washington, DC southward, winter is indeed expected to have a very limited influence on the weather for an extended amount of time. We are not Washington, DC however and the pattern, though short of ideal, is still capable of producing both next week and beyond from a snowfall standpoint.