February ends with a tail of 3 inland runners and March will begin with plenty of potential

The final 10 days of February will be a tail of 3 inland runners. It doesn't sound like a particularly romantic story but the details don't suggest anything too tragic either. Interior New England will be on the outer perimeter of a large ridge in the jet stream centered near the Carolina coast. Very mild air will make repeated attempts at fully enveloping the region but for the most part, those attempts will get rebuffed and much of the high country can expect just limited amounts of thawing until the end of the month where a more wintry pattern is still expected to emerge.

In the short term, a chilly airmass will send temperatures below zero in many spots Tuesday morning and keep readings in the teens during the day in spite of a healthy dosing of sunshine. More sunshine early Wednesday should help moderate conditions just a touch before clouds overspread Vermont before the end of the day. The first of the three aforementioned weather systems will then bring precipitation to Mad River Glen Wednesday night and this precipitation is expected to mostly fall as snow. This is a familiar story, consisting of a low pressure center over southeastern Canada while another low pressure center tries to take shape near the Jersey coastline. This weather situation will never develop into anything particularly noteworthy but we should avoid the ice and the above freezing temperatures and have 3-6 inches of snow to play in on Thursday. The one issue might be temperatures Thursday which are expected to climb above freezing for a time during the afternoon over the low elevations.

The period starting this Thursday afternoon and ending around Monday February 25 continues to look like the mildest of the period but not excessively so. Both Friday and Saturday appear generally dry with day time temperatures at or just above the freezing mark while overnight readings fall into the teens and 20's. A stronger and 2nd "inland runner" will then impact the region beginning either Saturday night or Sunday. Though there is  minimal cold air support, the outcome remains uncertain and a snow-eating thaw actually looks unlikely. Some snow is possible but the system appears to be a predominantly wintry mix/little bit of rain situation. Stay tuned with this storm since my feeling is a subsequent trend will ultimately take the Sunday weather situation one way or another.

Mild weather will persist into Monday but this should consist of temperatures in the high 30's or low 40's as opposed to something worse. The third of 3 of the potential inland runners appears to have an impact date of Tuesday or Wednesday (Feb 26-27). Though the track of this storm is hardly ideal, it appears better than its predecessor and thus the chances for wintry precipitation and snow are better.

Harder evidence has emerged suggesting a much more wintry pattern beginning around February 28 and continuing well into early March. The formation of a large ridge across Alaska in the last few days of the month is the primary culprit and this feature will largely eliminate the negative impacts of the negative PNA regime that dominated the pattern for much of February. Better yet are the indications of some continued activity in the jet stream underneath that ridge in Alaska. This means a loose Pacific jet capable of allowing for the presence of arctic air but also the presence of storminess. This is why the term "split flow" should always be thought of with glowing adjectives.  Given that setup, the ingredients will be present for a big east coast snow producer. Can we make it a trifecta March epicness (2017, 18 & 19) ? Hopefully yes, and in the case of 2019, we will be entering  March with a substantially deeper base.