8-14 inches of snow (and just a bit of sleet) Tues/Wed and lessening chances of holiday weekend rain

Our Tuesday/Wednesday winter storm remains on target and the trends that were discussed in the last update continue to hold up pretty well 2 days later. This appears to be a stronger more robust system and the coastal low pressure center which is expected to take shape Tuesday evening appears more potent on all of the forecast simulations I've seen on Monday. This is certainly something that was needed for a decent snowfall across northern Vermont. The one unfortunate aspect of all this is an intrusion of warm air aloft, which appears capable of penetrating the lower 2/3 of the state including the Mad River Valley in the pre-dawn hours on Wednesday. This layer of above freezing air is quite thick over the southern New England which could set the stage for some serious icing there. For our surroundings, the layer of warmth is likely just thick enough to turn precipitation to some sleet for a short time but we should NOT see any ice. Overall, this is shaping up to be a decent event which will feature several skiable inches of dense powder mixed with just a little sleet by first tracks time Wednesday.

The snow should commence at MRG around the closing of a cold but dry ski day Tuesday. Temperatures will start Tuesday well below zero and readings will warm only to about 20 during the day. The snow will intensify very quickly and a few hours of decent snowfall rates will put down a quick 6-8 inches of snow by about midnight or so. The time frame between midnight and 6 am Wednesday is the period where sleet is most likely were it to occur. It's unlikely to sleet during that entire period but enough I think that total accumulations are under a foot by morning Wednesday. Precipitation during the day on Wednesday will change back to snow and occasional snow showers is likely to bring a small additional accumulation to the high country. My guess on a storm total is about 8-14 inches by Wednesday evening and yet again, northern Vermont is one of the better locations in a eastern US geographical sense. We also have some "wind" concerns to discuss. It's not so much the speed but the direction. A mostly easterly wind has been known to cause problems and it will be such for Tuesday evening through early Wednesday morning.  The low pressure "axis" is expected to cross us in the mid-morning hours on Wednesday and this will allow winds to turn to a more westerly direction by noon or so. The changing wind direction will also allow temperatures to moderate, particularly in low lying areas. On the mountain, readings on Wednesday will climb from near 20 to the high 20's but temperatures might creep above freezing down along the Mad River.

Snow showers will linger into Wednesday night and flurries could persist through part of Thursday but with only light additional accumulations. Temperatures will finish the week on the milder side of average with readings climbing to about 30 Thursday and then creeping above the freezing mark by Friday.

The best news I have relates to the holiday weekend and the amplifying trend away from rain. Yes, there is another in the train of western storms exiting the Rocky Mountains on this upcoming Thursday but there are two very important updates. 1) The storm appears more likely to outrace a push of milder temperatures, bring its precipitation to New England Friday and be gone by the weekend. 2) The storm will not track into central Quebec and precipitation is thus most likely to be predominantly snow for a time on Friday before exiting the region Friday night. No, the storm doesn't look nearly as strong but trading a strong rainy system for a weaker, snowier one (still capable of producing a few inches) is an exchange we would surely make. On top of that, the weekend as a whole looks more seasonable albeit drier after whatever snowfall we receive on Friday. I would like to etch this forecast in some stone but would prefer to see one more round of model data before doing so.

Beyond the weekend, the forecast picture continues to make prognosticators dizzy. Cold air is likely to focus its attention on the western high plains but at the same time, the ridge in the jet stream is also expected to strengthen its grip on the southeastern United States. This is the continued story of a feisty Pacific fighting against small amounts of high latitude blocking in the jet stream. All of this should put Vermont in the battle zone so to speak and on the receiving end of one major weather system sometime in the middle of the week. I can't promise all snow but I can almost promise something. Meanwhile the inter mountain regions of the west will continue to experience the wrath of one of the coldest months in a number of years .