Rapidly retreating arctic air and angry Pacific to bring a very mild week of weather to Vermont

Arctic air continues its end of 2022 North American retreat and temperatures across all of New England are poised to soar. Model data is suggesting a dry day Friday with a layer of clouds assisting at maintaining an inversion that would mitigate the warmth and the wind. I think this can be true for a chunk of the day, but even a small period with a break in the overcast will allow the excessive surge of mid-level warmth to mix down to the surface and allow temperatures to exceed 50 in valley locations and at the base of Mad River Glen. These temps along with the near 40-degree dewpoints will soften snow conditions and this should continue into Saturday when temps continue to hover in the 40's even during the morning. The rain is coming for the weekend as well and its just a matter of timing it at this point. Several hours early in the day Saturday should remain dry but the risk for rain increases during the afternoon and and we should expect to get wet before the end of the ski day. The heaviest rain can then be expected Saturday night followed by colder windier day Sunday with precipitation becoming a wet snow across the high country though  it appears to be too light to amount to anything of significance. 

The jet stream in the Pacific has decided to end 2022 in an especially angry mood and the results are not good for Vermont snow lovers. Across a corridor of the western United States, the results have been a lot better. Tahoe has had an incredible month but the recent storm saw rain even as high as 7000 feet. Mt. Rose is a cool family owned Nevada mountain and also has the luxury of having much of its skiable terrain above 9000 feet. Almost 170 inches of snow has already fallen at Mt Rose this season with more on the way. Utah and much of Colorado have done extraordinarily well this week and have enjoyed cool temperatures and excellent snow throughout this month. The mood  of the jet in the Pacific  is expected to improve over the coming week, but not soon enough to prevent another big surge of east coast warmth toward the middle of next week. Almost everything appears a bit quicker as of today verses some model indications a few days ago but that hasn't shifted the overall theme of the outlook for next week; in fact, the warm surge looks warmer and may result in record breaking temperatures (60 degrees in valley locations) across New England with a wind and rain event quite possibly wiping out much of our snow after Wednesday. I use the term possible because there's a more intriguing possibility emerging following the big warm-up and a period of rain that appears impossible to avoid. Could low level cold in Canada make a southward push out ahead of a lagging wave of flow pressure and induce a late week snow event late next week (Jan 5-6)? Slight chance for now but not yet likely.

As mentioned teleconnection indices all turn mildly favorable even before my targeted turning point date of January 10 save maybe for the NAO which as of today is indicated to remain just a little positive through the foreseeable future. For the time being however, longer range models are struggling to pull arctic air back into North America. There is evidence of some ridging in the arctic regions above the northeastern Eurasian continent and this feature would be capable of pulling arctic air back into the northern half of North America (most of Canada), but models are yet suggesting this feature to be strong enough to do this in a large scale way. Even without the presence of large scale amounts of arctic chill however, operational models over the past few days have indicated the return of winter weather between January 9th and 16th which is about as far out as we can see. As mentioned, a softer January pattern with a limited polar jet might be bad for snow along the New England and Mid-Atlantic coasts but is not terrible for interior and elevated areas which can be dominated by dry stable air in such an environment. We will need some time to recover after this stretch of warmth, but it continues to look at least a little promising for the final 3 weeks of January.

Hideous stretch of winter weather expected across interior New England for the start of 2023, but improvements are visible beginning around January 10

At the very least, it is good to see a lot terrain open not only at Mad River Glen, but throughout the northeast. We've had many Christmas periods with "practice slope only" situations at least at MRG so I am happy to see we've cleared that bar without too many problems. Unfortunately we have to face some irritating music over the next 10-14 days as arctic air is forced into a deep retreat. I can guarantee a lot of above-freezing temperatures through January 10th and not a lot of natural snow. I was hopeful that we could avoid excessive amounts of snow eating rain and wind but the rainfall part appears to be an increasing concern right at New Years. As lousy as this seems however, one can already see improvements way out on the horizon and the last 21 days of January should see much better results than the first 10.

High res model data is indicating just a bit of warm-advection or overrunning snow Wednesday morning. Enough for a 1-2 inch fluffing, most of this before the ski day begins. As the ski day winds down, we may see clouds give way to some blue sky and temperatures that approach the freezing mark. In comes the mild for Thursday with temps soaring above the freezing mark and into the 40's across many low lying areas. Clouds are likely to keep the wind lower and temperatures from getting too excessive. This also applies to Friday and Saturday though I am concerned breaks in the overcast will allow mild southwesterly breezes to mix the atmosphere and allow afternoon temperatures to approach 50 in some spots. Through Saturday, we can certainly confine any rainfall to the "light" and very "sporadic" category. On New Year's day, a Sunday this year, we are seeing more evidence of an organized storm system. This low pressure area is indicated to  track over Lake Ontario which is certainly not the worst kind of inland runner ever, but we will have entirely voided ourselves of cold weather by this point and a cold rain is about all that we can expect with much of it falling on the first day of 2023. 

Temperatures are expected to remain well above normal beyond New Year's day although readings will cool down, mostly during the overnights on January 2nd and 3rd. We then can expect another big surge of mild weather as the first full week of January progresses and likely some additional rain just before or during the weekend of January 7th and 8th. In total, 3 days of 50-plus temperatures are my best guess for this upcoming 12-day mild stretch.

As bad as this all seems however, the month does not appear to be a complete loss and the torch seems temporary. The Pacific is certainly angry for a time forcing the retreat of arctic air in North America but the EPO index never attains "evil empire" status and the storminess at the lower latitude regions in the Pacific will ultimately break down the ridging in eastern North America. Other teleconnection indices are also expected to improve with some soft indications of ridging in western North America as we approach my turning point date of January 10th. Even a few days prior to said date, every major teleconnection index turns mildly favorable but it's the PNA or some ridging in western North America that will be critical in allowing eastern Canada to finally get some winter and for New England to have better access to colder weather. Even as cold in western North America has been earning headlines and snow/wind has paralyzed Buffalo, eastern Canada has been very warm most of this month. Ice expansion in the Hudson Bay had a strong start November but has been crippled by continuous warmth in eastern Canada and this large body of water remains not entirely frozen as of Boxing Day. A frozen Hudson Bay does not have the impact of modifying arctic airmasses and is another reason why January and February are materially colder in Vermont than December.

Cold weather over Christmas expected to yield quickly to several days of mild above-freezing temperatuers around the New Year's holiday

The skiing was beautiful early this past week, but as I watch Buffalo record its 36th consecutive hour of blizzard conditions I can't help but think that we have once again performed an epic reversion to our December mean. This point is underscored when looking at weather conditions for the next 7 days. The storm December 16th was beautiful and we had a few days to enjoy it, but then somehow managed to get ravaged by rain and widespread power outage producing winds while the strongest December arctic cold shot in years envelops much of the eastern two thirds of the country. We have a lot of water in that remaining quite encrusted snow pack but it is poised to get tested by a good round of El Torchy over the New Years holiday and an early January period that appears quite balmy. 

Through Wednesday December 28th, conditions across interior New England continue to appear to be chilly. A "caboose" type disturbance in the polar jet is in fact going to impact Vermont with some clouds and light snow late Monday into early Tuesday and this snow is capable of producing a few inches though there are no indications of anything more than that. Clouds from the strong push of milder temperatures could again bring a period of snow to the MRV Wednesday but there are also indications that this could remain north of us allowing southwesterly flow to warm temperatures beyond the freezing mark. The 1-4 inches of snow Tuesday is the best mother nature is capable of in what appears to be a lousy upcoming period beginning on December 29th. 

If you simply take a snapshot of the raw teleconnection indices over the next 2 weeks, they don't look all that terrible; in fact, they appear to be pretty neutral. This serves as good justification for suggesting that the excessively mild weather we appear clearly earmarked for won't persist through most of January. That said, the period around New Years just looks atrocious for winter weather lovers. The jet stream in the Pacific appears ready to get really angry for a time. After January 10th, this setup could produce a few decent storms, but for a time the pattern will simply align for excessive warmth in New England and much of eastern Canada while arctic air goes into a deep retreat to start 2023. Weather systems could bring a period of rain to Vermont in the New Year's holiday time frame, but there continues to be a lack of evidence suggesting heavy or widespread rain. The warmth is different story where temperatures are expected to exceed the freezing mark every day from December 29th through January 2nd with at least 2 of those days possibly seeing temperatures above 50 below 2000 feet. The above normal temperatures are expected to continue after January 3rd though there are indications of a jet stream that could potentially support snowfall producing storms after January 5th.

Powerful storm to bring both snow, rain and wind to northern Vermont and mild weather looms larger for New Years weekend following a cold Christmas

There's obviously a lot of weather out there and much to discuss with upcoming storm, a powerful cyclone that will prove to be challenging given its impact on one of the bigger travel days of the year. Across much of Vermont, wind is the primary concern. New England sees some of the worst storms in the country yet much of our electricity remains distributed through the vast network of above ground wires which are very vulnerable in a storm such as this one especially when older trees or tree limbs come down. Please keep that in mind during the day tomorrow whether your plans include travel or hunkering down at home. 

Obviously this isn't the ideal storm for snow in northern Vermont given the track and the early amplification in the middle of the country. That said, model data has moved away from some of the worst outcomes and a sizable front-end thump is now expected beginning around midnight Friday.  Some of the data out there is suggesting as much as 6 inches while more conservative indications (and better in my opinion) points toward 2-4. By daybreak Friday, temperatures will have inched above the freezing mark and precipitation will become rain. For a time the rainfall will be steady as opposed to heavy and I think most of the high winds gusts will remain above the surface and protected areas and valley locations. Summit locations won't be so lucky where winds could even reach hurricane force by the middle of the day Friday. The high wind and a 1-2 hour burst of heavy rain is likely during the midday or early afternoon period when, even in valley locations, gusts could reach 50 mph. Wind has a propensity to eat at snow along with rainfall so it is my hope that we can limit both forms of weather to a limited window. Temperatures will start Friday in the 30's, spike into the 40's briefly and then tumble back toward the freezing mark as it gets dark Friday evening with a period of snow likely between 5- 8 pm. Standing, slushy water certainly could freeze quickly and the snow is expected to be heavy enough to accumulate another 1-3 inches before conditions dry out later in the evening. 

The incoming cold airmass is not expected to hit New England particularly hard compared to some other areas. Temperatures will stay confined to the teens Saturday after bottoming out in the single numbers in the morning. Winds will remain high enough to produce wind chills well below zero but actual temps should rebound back into the 20's both Sunday and Monday afternoons. Unfortunately, the southwest flow bringing the cold back to Vermont is also a relatively dry wind. Lake effect snow will hit the snowbelt regions but the snow shower activity should remain minimal through Monday and expect to see decent amounts of sunshine accompanying the wind through the weekend. 

Fully expect the colder temps to persist through Wednesday 12/28,  but the weather pattern is expected to take a bad turn later in the week and allow mild air to make a big push northward prior to New Years weekend. I've yet to see indications of any big rainfall but there are hints of temperatures that could reach or exceed 50 for a 2-day stretch. As of Thursday evening the current weather pattern doesn't even seem inclined to give us a goodbye kiss with a system capable of producing a few inches of snow as the pattern softens and arctic air retreats. This often happens in these type of situations and though it's worth watching, nothing is indicated for now late next week. I will reiterate that fundamentally speaking, the pattern doesn't look capable of supporting several weeks of this but the North American continent is expected to lose its arctic air which is typically a challenging obstacle for natural snow.

A short-lived thaw with some heavy rainfall Friday afternoon followed by a chilly Christmas weekend

 If there was any type of trend to convey regarding our upcoming Friday storm it would be "less bad". It's really no consolation however because "bad" is bad. We've had worse thaws around Christmas both in duration and intensity. This one will feature a little over 12 hours of above freezing temperatures and a small window where temperatures approach 50 along with a burst of heavy rainfall. By Friday evening the rainfall is done and temperatures will again support snowfall if we can get any. 

A friend at the National Weather Service made an interesting point to me the other day. He suggested that sometimes the presence of a polar jet can at times have a detrimental impact on a promising storm track. Jet stream impulses with in a polar jet are more dynamic and have the power to amplify storms so ferociously that they are unable to make a clean transition to the coastline and will run up through the Great Lakes sucking warm air into New England. This case would certainly underscore the point although arctic cold is an important ingredient for snow producing storms on the east coast so its presence is important though I suppose it needs to be the right kind of presence. 

After several days of sub-freezing temperatures atop last week's two foot snow storm, the big push of warm air should initially bring a period of snow to northern Vermont very early Friday morning. I like to refer to this warm advection snow as a "front end thump" but unfortunately it won't be much of a thump. A few hours of snowfall before dawn and a few inches. At daybreak on Friday temperatures will be moving past the freezing mark and any wintry mix will become mostly rainfall. Models are beginning to sort out the ugly details which include only a few hours of heavy rainfall sometime between noon and 5 pm. This is a very strong storm and I expect the high winds to remain off the ground until late on Friday when we will see wind gusts of 30-40 mph in the valley's and upwards of 50 near the summits. If there's been a positive trend over the past day or so it involves the possibility for some anafrontal precip Friday evening in the form of snow. The drop in temperatures is expected to be very dramatic and capable of flash freezing some standing water late Friday evening. By Saturday we should see some intervals of sunshine, a cold southwesterly wind along with snow flurries. If the flow was better or more northwesterly, we might have snow shower activity of more significance, but this southwest flows confines the heavy snow showers to areas like Jay Peak over the weekend. The arctic outbreak is substantial for the Ohio Valley, Kentucky Tennessee and even areas further south though short-lived. In Vermont however, the cold is very garden variety with high temperatures in the teens on the mountain and morning temperatures in the single numbers. Expect some ugly wind chill values Saturday to go along with those teens and this will only very slowly improve Sunday into Monday. 

Most of the holiday week following Christmas is expected to remain sub-freezing in Vermont but the pattern is expected to undergo some material changes with the polar jet and its associated arctic air gradually retreating. A softening pattern can create the opportunity for storminess along the east coast and there are hints of this on the Euro/Canadian models on Tuesday or Wednesday of next week. We should more clarity on how realistic our snow chances are in this time frame within the next 48 hours or so. 

After Wednesday the Pacific is expected to really intensify and the entire North American continent outside the southwest U.S. is expected to see moderating temperatures. As bad as the Pacific appears for a few days, and as detrimental as that is for the buildup of cold across North America as a whole, I've seen worse January weather patterns. Both the NAO/AO are expected to remain on the favorable side of neutral and even the PNA index (a measure of ridging on the western North America) isn't all that terrible. Remember, by January, we don't want to be overwhelmed with arctic air as that can really dry things out at our latitude. We would prefer a stormy pattern with a bit more available arctic cold than what's indicated. So the pattern at face value doesn't look great at the start of '23 and quite terrible if you want snow along the coast or in NYC and points south, but there's room for some hope in Vermont.

Forecast models Mr. Grinching potential big storm on Dec 22-23 (Thur/Fri) shifting track west and bringing ice/rain into forecast picture

We certainly got a terrific result with the storm both Friday and Friday night with two feet falling over the high country and some additional snow showers and flurries on Saturday. Though we are in the middle of a very favorable weather pattern, there is growing concern with our next storm expected to strike on Thursday December 22nd into Friday December 23rd. We've gotten a couple rounds of model data showing adverse results and we will need to reverse this trend very quickly to save a storm setup that appeared loaded with potential for several days. I'll discuss the details two paragraphs down but needless to say it has been very disappointing watching where forecast simulations have trended the last few days. 

Up until Thursday we continue our stretch of sub-freezing temperatures on the mountain and readings will actually inch toward the colder side each day with high temperatures up near 30 on Sunday and then dropping into the 20's Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday and perhaps only low 20's for a while on Thursday with morning temperatures in the single digits. Westerly flow on Sunday is capable of producing a few flurries and light snow showers but the setup will improve Monday with snow showers enhancing in the afternoon as winds become more northwesterly. Models are not indicating much of an accumulation and I would not expect one in the valley, but the mountains, General Stark, Lincoln, Mt Ellen could see a few inches. Tuesday and Wednesday don't appear to be totally bluebird but both should feature the most sun out of any of the days during the upcoming week. 

So I've been reading my nearly 2 year old daughter The Grinch That Stole Christmas and she doesn't seem to very fond of Christmas Trees vanishing up the chimney. As far as I am concerned however, old Mr. Grinch can have my Christmas Tree just don't give me a highly amplified inland cutting storm capable of flooding me with warmth. This is what's been happening to Vermont year after year and the curse seems to have taken on a special life of its own by defying a blocked weather pattern late in 2020 and yielding a Christmas Rain and threatening to do that again with the upcoming storm on the 22nd and 23rd. But before we all start crying in our beer (I've already kinda done that), keep in mind that we are working with more substantial amounts of cold air both on the front and especially rear flank of the storm. Even if the very dynamic low pressure center in question were to track over Syracuse, northern Vermont would be capable of procuring a decent front end thump of powder, limit the the freezing rain/rain period and receive some back end wrap around oragraphically enhanced snowfall Friday evening into Christmas Eve. If this were indeed the absolute downside of possibilities, I wouldn't feel too bad about the less than ideal situation. Late on Saturday evening, both the Canadian (GEM) and American GFS ensembles seemed to support such a scenario. That said, there have been several operational models released over the last 24 hours that have been suggesting the polar jet injection is just a steroid that simply over amplifies the whole setup, too early and too far west. The European model from this afternoon flooded much of eastern Ontario and all of Quebec with warmth and had the best snow over Madison, Wisconsin. As I mentioned, I've seen a few iterations of this on operational models run over the past 24-36 hours but fortunately the aggregated consensus of data has not yet been advertising anything that dire. 

I mentioned the other day how difficult it is for medium range models to get a handle on winter storms when a polar jet gets involved. The arctic, and the jet stream that brings it operates at a different speed and small changes in that speed can mean very different results. We are 5-6 days from this event and I continue to expect some additional changes. Highly amplified storms can be fun when the track of the storm is right, but in this case we would prefer a slightly flatter less robust storm. It's not looking promising we can keep the ice or rain out of the forecast picture in this setup given where data has been trending, but we still have some limited time to salvage the situation. 

Additionally, we still have several days of garden variety arctic chill in the wake of this storm though amazingly, after all the hype surrounding this weather pattern on social media, most of interior New England won't see any sub-zero readings from this. Parts of the deep south will see some impressively cold temps for a day or two thanks to the core of the cold getting pile-driven toward the Gulf Coast by this storm. The cold will come quickly and go rather quickly however and is unlikely to create too many problems outside of the winter storm's primary impact zone. As far as additional chances for snowfall after the 22-24th, nothing specific is showing up, but I expect the weather pattern to soften and this process typically allows for another storm to materialize. In this case it would allow our next chance to arrive in the time frame just before New Years. 

Beyond that there are clearer suggestions of a push toward a milder pattern with a tightening Pacific jet stream and a more zonal weather pattern. There are indications on the ensemble data of continued storminess which is encouraging as far as snow potential is concerned. By January we don't want a weather pattern to overwhelm us with arctic cold and thus a little mild can still produce decent results while a complete torch is something we would obviously no part of. 

Storm to bring 15-25 inches Friday and Saturday to areas above 1500 feet with another possible storm lurking late next week

With each new piece of data, I've become more impressed with our upcoming event. Just a perfect type of storm to get the season started. As I mentioned yesterday, this isn't a "bombs away" situation or a storm capable of reaching any kind of historical strength as far as nor'easters go, but the weather pattern has created an ideal set of circumstances for this and it reminds me a little of the setup we had prior to getting clobbered with 4 feet of snow in late February of 2010. 

We continue to be working with an airmass that wasn't especially cold to begin with and has gradually become rather stale through the week. This allowed temperatures over valley locations Thursday to approach 40 degrees. It's a good thing our coastal low is establishing itself nicely Thursday and will track along the southern New England coastline because an inland runner would flood the region with warmth with little resistance. Fortunately, no inland runner is expected and we have a healthy, slow moving plume of moisture which should bring snowfall to the region by daybreak Friday. What is particularly impressive is the deep moist layer of southeasterly fetch or flow of air, which when rammed against the spine of the Berkshires and Green Mountains, enhance snowfall rates and bring some very impressive snowfall totals above 1500 feet. The warmth will make the snow consistency wet over valley locations and if you reside in a western shadow of a mountain range, you are in a big screw zone. Over the years, I've seen some wild snow shadows in these aforementioned regions and I think this is a really amplified case where areas just west of the big Green Mountain spine (thinking of you Middlebury, Bristol, Hinesburg and Underhill), will see limited gloppy snow and mild above freezing temperatures. Fortunately, most of us don't make turns in these areas (though some of you might) and if you stay above 2000 feet the results will be very good and considerably more powdery. The best part of this event is the extended stretch of time this pivoting area of moisture will sit over our area. This is just outstanding and should allow moderate to heavy snowfall to continue well into Saturday. It's this facet of the storm which will allow accumulations to reach 15-25 inches over the high country with a gloppier 10 inch snow expected in the valley and less in areas west of the Green Mountains. Folks always ask me about wind and though this is not an especially strong storm, it does have a healthy and deep easterly gradient as I mentioned. This means winds will be substantial Friday but slacken a bit Saturday while shifting 180 degrees and becoming westerly.

Sunday appears drier and a little cooler with temperatures hovering in the 20's in the mountains and near 30 in the valleys. As indicated in a prior post, some limited moisture should be able to return to northern Vermont in the form of some snow showers either late on Sunday, Sunday night or Monday though this has gradually appeared less impressive as our Saturday snow totals appear more impressive. The early part of next week then appears somewhat tranquil even as a motherload of arctic air invades western Canada and the pattern prepares to amplify for fireworks late in the week. 

I make no guarantees regarding the potential event on December 22-23. It can be very difficult for models to nail down weather events when the polar jet starts to get involved. It just creates a more chaotic environment and a difficult one to predict with small simulation errors amplifying into larger ones exponentially. That said, ensembles are showing an outstanding signal, 8 days out, for a major nor'easter with this one producing heavy snow, wind and featuring much colder temperatures both during and in the wake of storm. This event could end up out over the ocean and it was even indicated at one point to be an inland runner a few days ago (I highly doubt it at this point), but at the very least it provides an additional opportunity for snowfall prior to Christmas. Speaking of that holiday, it looks both windy and frigid most of the weekend and I will underscore the wind part because I don't think temperatures, though cold (single numbers and teens), will shatter any records. The cold air is expected to linger through the holiday week and I expect another chance at snowfall as the pattern softens and the arctic air either retreats or moderates. I actually expect an additional surge of cold prior to New Years over New England but the pattern overall over eastern North America is indicated to soften. There are hints at a strengthening Pacific Jet around the start of 2023, but I don't consider this a threat to holiday skiing in Vermont.

Snow on Friday begins a beautiful stretch of winter weather that should extend through at least part of the Christmas holiday

Doesn't seem likely that Friday's storm turns into a coastal bomb, but the Green Mountains appear well situated to do about as good as anyone from our upcoming weather event. This storm has already bombed over the northern plains and it is expected to fully mature and occlude over the western Great Lakes by Thursday. Typically, this can spell trouble across New England, but it's the NAO to the rescue with low pressure expected to reform closer to the southeast coast on Thursday, strengthen and then proceed northeast bringing moisture into a widespread swatch of the Northeast. 

Meanwhile the cold dry air has managed to overperform across interior New England early this week allowing us to procure the first round of single digit temperatures this month Monday night. A storm spinning its way in the maritimes has failed to return moisture into western New England but has managed to suck the cloudiness and instability away from Vermont allowing for the bluebird weather. The dry air, will serve us well as moisture arrives Friday morning. We should see an all snow event beginning around daybreak and persisting at varying intensities through Friday evening. Coastal New England snow lovers have been showering love on the American GFS model because it indicates a track which would keep snow further south. I don't for a minute buy that however. We should see that model conform to the rest of model consensus which would keep the best snow and mostly powder snow at high elevations, over interior New England. Even the Champlain Valley which as recently as the weekend seemed earmarked for some rain, appears to be primarily snowier though their snowfall could still be a bit gloppier. As for us, I think this is a solid 10-14 inch event Friday and Friday evening with some additional snow possible later in the weekend which I will discuss below.

We should a break in the snowfall either early or through much of Saturday with some limited sunshine allowing temperatures to creep above the freezing mark in the valley locations though the high country should stay mostly in the 20's. The initial pool of jet stream energy associated with this storm will gradually move over Vermont Sunday into Monday allowing for elevation sensitive snow showers that should persist through Tuesday. I don't love the wind trajectory in this time frame for the MRV and would favor heftier accumulations in this time frame from Stowe and Smuggs northward to Jay Peak but we should be able to procure at least some additional snowfall in this time frame while temperatures remain generally in the 20's during the day. There is some activity in the southern branch of the jet stream to watch for the middle of the week, but there is a stronger signal for a significant storm around Friday December 23rd. A lot of the right ingredients are in place emphasized by a amplifying jet stream and a big surge of arctic chill in the middle part of the country. If nothing else, it sets up the Christmas holiday beautifully with wintry conditions locked in place through at least the 28th of the month. 

There is a beautiful upstream block in the jet stream expected to form north of the Bering Sea. This would correlate to a very intense outbreak of arctic cold across the western two thirds of North America with a burst of intense cold expected for the Christmas holiday along the eastern seaboard. There are indications that the surge of cold would abate somewhat after the 26th but with some remnants of this pattern remaining in place up until New Years. This is the best looking Christmas setup since maybe 2005 which goes back 17 years ! Almost as old as the blog.

Data aligning for a solid base-building storm Friday and into the weekend with wintry temps dominating through the early part of the holiday period

A nice stretch of sub-freezing temperatures and a bit of snow and we have liftoff once again for our northern Vermont winter. November was just a tease. For the most part, the weather pattern, though not supportive of bitterly cold temperatures yet, will support a continuation of sub-freezing temperatures, perhaps through the Christmas holiday. It will remain dry for the short term with temperatures in the teens during the overnights and 20's during the day with some stiff northerly winds, particularly at the summits. I've been eyeing the possibility of moisture getting sucked back in the maritimes, a frequent occurrence in these types of weather patterns. Furthermore, we have a favorable snow shower wind trajectory Tuesday and Wednesday with the flow directed beautifully from the longest fetch of an unfrozen Lake Champlain possible. For now, models suggest the atmosphere is too stable for anything, but I would not be surprised to see afternoon snow showers or flurries late Tuesday and perhaps again on Wednesday. 

I've had the urge the post updates on the upcoming Friday/Saturday storm but models have moved in every direction with this sucker over the last few days and a play by play of this action would be dizzying. In short, the blocked weather pattern will do its job and allow this overly mature and occluded monster of a storm in the plains to establish a new center near the southeast coastline. This process thwarts any northward push of air or severely mitigates it across northern New England. We needed this in the worst way with cold dry air in rather short supply by week's end. Though we can't get too definitive about the details yet, my inkling is that most if not all of the precipitation with this storm remains frozen on the mountain with a small opportunity for sleet or freezing rain and yes rain for valley locations and especially Champlain Valley locations. There's quite a bit of snow possible here also with a thump possible on the front end and a deep pool of instability over the weekend providing the opportunity for additional snowfall on both Saturday and Sunday. A few models late last week lit the fuse, phased and bombed this storm yielding a 2-foot outcome for interior New England. That outcome was then pushed south on Saturday and then the ultra-phased bomber has not been shown on successive cycles of model runs Sunday. I wouldn't entirely eliminate that possibility as of yet, but I feel very good about getting a solid base-building snow (8-16") this Friday and into the weekend for the mountains. 

The weather pattern for the upcoming week and through our end of week storm will be dominated by the blocking centered in the Davis strait almost due north of us. As we progress beyond this weekend the weather pattern will take on a different look with the -NAO fading and a new round of high latitude blocking forming closer to the pole north of Alaska in the arctic. This can be a terrific mechanism for transporting bitterly cold arctic air southward and into the United States, but the North American continent will be voided of its core of cold with much of it locked over Siberia. It will be challenging to pull a substantial chunk of that chill over the pole on a massive scale so I continue to favor a garden variety chilly pattern that I think should see additional storms and possibly a very big one right around the Christmas holiday. We are certainly long overdue such a result after experiencing so many recent holiday thaws.

 

A colder and snowier trend has re-emerged in the period leading up to the holiday as we enter a more wintry weather pattern

No warmer trend in this update. I don't particularly enjoy playing that game in the winter and we appear to be done with it for the time being. Additionally, and most importantly, the snow forecast has improved. I wouldn't bet on seeing the the 40 inches of snow yesterday evenings American model advertised over the next two weeks, but when you take that model and the just released European model and incorporate all of it into your possibility spectrum, the potential results improve dramatically. Lets discuss. 

We have a near term (next 5 day) colder trend and one that was needed. There's a small amount of snow to go with that, which, given the current state of the bare ground is very welcome if only for aesthetics.  Friday and Saturday are both bluebird days and sub-freezing across the skiable northern Vermont high country. A subtle jet stream impulse will be crossing the southern Great Lakes region on Saturday as we continue to bask in our December sunshine. It will ultimately energize a new low pressure center in western Pennsylvania and that feature will transition offshore Sunday evening. There is an increasing likelihood that a corridor of moisture will impact some or all of Vermont for several hours and thus bring a small accumulation of snow to the barren ground. We have to start somewhere ! 

In addition to any snow Sunday night, there is a small pocket of chillier temperatures that will get flushed into New England once this storm passes. This allows the first three days of next week to appear colder in the forecast and certainly below freezing across the high country with teens dominating the overnights and 20's during the day. A persistent wind on both Monday and Tuesday will bring wind chill temps below zero as well. Moisture could sneak its way southward from the maritime regions of Canada during this time frame as well but current indications are that this stays east of us. 

The big question next week relates to the storm with a potential impact on Thursday and Friday. I mentioned on twitter that there remains a lot of potential with this sucker. The temperature situation remains tenuous but has moved in our favor a bit on 2 major cycles of model runs. Most importantly, the pattern is there for this to evolve into a big snow producer. There is just a massive pull of jet stream energy with this storm as it matures in the central United States. Normally, the track of such a storm would suck warm air and rain into the region late in the week, but with the downstream jet stream block in place it changes the equation quite significantly. I wish I could lock the just released European model into our forecast but too much could still change. That scenario would have some mixed precipitation change to wet and eventually a more powdery mountain snow that could persist through early Saturday yielding well  over a foot of snow above 2000 feet. A cold rain remains possible however as does a bunch of other outcomes in between. I can say with confidence that temperatures next week won't even closely resemble the disastrous outcome this week. 

Talk of more substantial amounts of colder air has again gained steam in the last few days for the period around the winter solstice and continuing through Christmas. As we approach that time frame the consensus has moved toward a pattern dominated by a downstream block to a pattern dominated more by a upstream block positioned over Alaska. This upstream block is a much more effective mechanism for arctic air delivery in general. Still though, I continue to see obstacles bringing the core of bitterly cold air, bottled up over much of eastern Russia across the pole and into North America and I would favor a forecast with chilly (sub-freezing) but not bitterly cold temperatures. That said, I continue to love the pattern for storm potential. The negative EPO or tamed Pacific jet stream sets up beautifully for additional snow producing storms in a very critical point in the ski season. There is no guarantee the stars align, but the odds are better this year than any other Xmas holiday period I've seen this past decade.

Though the trend toward milder temperatures continues for the next 10 days, the pattern continues to have winter weather potential through Christmas

Many of the same ideas will dominate this blog update as rain dominates the weather picture in northern Vermont in the middle of our first week of December. The upcoming pattern continues to have potential on the winter storminess side of the equation, but the cold air which I predicted would under-perform, has under-performed even my low expectations and the forecast for the next 10 days continues to move in a warmer direction. 

With that said, there are a couple of opportunities for winter weather over these aforementioned 10 days. Nothing imminent and certainly nothing we can take the bank, but it's something and we have to start somewhere. Though we won't have snow on the ground, we can a nice stretch of dry weather beginning late Wednesday with sunshine featured on part of Thursday and most of Friday and Saturday. Though the air isn't bitterly cold, much of this period should stay below freezing above 2000 feet allowing snowmaking operations to progress. As expected, a weather system will track well south of the region late Friday and the rain/minimal snow will also stay well to our south. There's been a move on the most recent cycle of models to allow a jet stream impulse to undercut the large blocking structure in the jet stream to our north on Sunday. This feature will have an opportunity to use the relative warmth of the Atlantic to intensify into something on Monday. Precipitation is likely to stay south of Vermont with this guy also, but I am not sure we have total clarity on this potential situation yet. It will evolve and it's worth watching as a potential snow producer for someone early next week. After that a bigger weather system is likely to impact the region later next week. We have gained a clearer picture of this likelihood, but models have been trending farther north and warmer with this storm and at least at this juncture, are not moving the the system underneath the Davis Strait block which is a trajectory storms often take in this weather pattern. I am exercising my constitutional right to remain optimistic regarding a potential storm late next week in spite of current models which will most assuredly shift again. This is a pattern that favors a more optimal storm track and often times we can miss precipitation because we are too far north as opposed to worry about rain.  That said, temperatures continue to appear above average yet still mostly sub-freezing through at least Wednesday December 14th. 

After the potential storm in the later part of next week, the strength of the -NAO starts to recede but not vanish entirely. The emergence of what appears to be some ridging in the Gulf of Alaska would suggest to me the possibility of a better cold air delivery device around the time of the winter solstice (or just before). At face value ensembles are suggesting the potential for storminess more than cold, but most of the teleconnection indices are at least somewhat  supportive of both cold and storminess. I have argued that the cold is being held back by a re-energized Pacific and a negative PNA which is a loose measurement of jet stream ridging strength in the western part of North America. We are expected to at least neutralize this by the 19th while other teleconnection indices remain somewhat supportive of more favorable winter weather conditions. What choice do we have but to wait patiently.

Stormier and more intriguing weather pattern still imminent but cold air remains limited through at least next week

 In the last post, I put some special emphasis on the idea that although the upcoming weather pattern appears favorable for storms, it does not especially favor bitterly cold weather. I've been at odds regarding this point with a few other notable longer range forecasters yet in spite of all that, my own forecast ideas were still too cold for the next two weeks. A blocked pattern supported only by a negative -NAO is typically not all that cold and all that's fine but we need to see some storms and some snowfall to begin moving our ski season in a positive direction. I was hoping we could gain a little clarity as to when we might see some significant snowfall but instead I need to go with the theme that temperatures will remain on the milder side a little longer and east coast storminess capable of impacting Vermont with snow is still likely more than a week out.

In the meantime it's another rain event event Tuesday, Tuesday night and into early Wednesday with temperatures generally in the 30's or low 40's. A few areas could see some freezing rain for a while across the high country, but this appears to be a significant precipitation producer gone to waste. I hope this is the last liquid we see for a while and while it's no guarantee, we have a good chance of beginning such a streak after the rain tapers off Wednesday.

 Drier air will build across the region later Wednesday and encompass the region Thursday but the stiff north to northeast wind will be bringing southward, air that simply isn't that cold. Remember, the jet stream block will be producing a pool of relative warmth over northeast Canada so that source of cold will be lost to us for a while. Still. there is enough cool air in place for the American GFS model to tease us with the possibility of some wet snow on Friday and into the weekend. The smart phone should be promising dry weather for northern Vermont on Friday and into the weekend and I think that's right. Two major ensembles are keeping storminess and all of the either rain or snow south of Vermont and I think the GFS is out to lunch with its more northerly track. Yes, never downplay the possibility of a late inning northward shift but this pattern also doesn't quite favor that kind of magic. 

Much of next week also doesn't look especially cold. Given the lack of arctic air, readings appear more likely to average above as opposed to below normal. Ensembles continue to favor a stormy pattern however and at varying runs of different models have produced all kinds of terrific looking fantasy winter storms. Given the continued presence of an downstream blocking jet stream structure, any east coast cyclone will have the opportunity to intensify and get stuck close to the coast offering up the possibility of several days of precipitation. Just find us a way to get at the moisture and away we go. I would love to provide a few more details good or bad as soon as possible, hopefully with the next post in a few days. 

Looking even beyond next week, there are more encouraging signs on the temperature side of the equation. The signal for the downstream blocking or negative NAO begins to decline after December 16, but as this is happening the upstream support for transporting colder weather from the Eurasian continent improves and the period leading up to the winter solstice might feature a decent round of colder weather. Still looks overall to be more of a stormier as opposed to a cold pattern.

Large -NAO blocking structure over Greenland to produce a pattern loaded with storm potential beginning December 7th

Happy 1st of December to everyone and its an exciting time in the world of weather blogging because it's an exciting weather pattern. Those that may have followed some social media banter may have noticed that I've voiced some disagreement, mainly regarding the interpretations of what might occur in this jet stream structure. It might sound like a "downplay", but its not. We are headed toward a terrific weather pattern for east coast snow but there's been a considerable amount of hype for extreme early winter cold and I've been repeatedly suggesting that this is a misinterpretation. I would reiterate that today. This is a pattern conducive for east coast storms not so much extreme cold. The big picture weather pattern tends to be dominated by the elephant in the room and that elephant will be the formation of a large Greenland jet stream blocking structure, capable of sending the NAO toward a -2 index which in a historical context is quite intense. I do expect some garden variety chill to maintain a grip on much of New England for the two week period beginning next Wednesday 12/7 and persisting at least through the winter solstice but temperatures should stay within a standard deviation of normal (generally ranging from 8 below normal to 2 above). At the very least it should consist of an extended period of sub-freezing temperatures which will allow both natural and artificial snow to accumulate a healthy base. 

There are still a few ugly details to get through, but after yesterday's wind driven abomination, the time left before we begin our extended stretch of winter weather is getting smaller and smaller. I noticed at dusting of snow at MRG Thursday but whatever falls will get obliterated by one final torch this Saturday. We should see a nice day Friday with sunshine and temperatures in the 30's before clouds, milder temperatures and some rain arrive for Saturday with readings besting 40 up on the mountain and 50 in the valley's. It should be the last we see of that for a while. 

Colder air won't completely take over for early next week, but will be involved enough to at least make things interesting for our next weather system on Tuesday December 6th. It doesn't look cold enough throughout the lower troposphere for snow but it does look like it could be cold enough at the surface for sleet and a bit of ice. I don't expect temperatures to venture too far above freezing during the day Tuesday if at all (on the mountain) and drier, colder early season arctic air will then build across the region Wednesday. Tuesday's weather system will be the first to get trapped underneath the building Greenland block. Recall last year when we could never trap systems in the Canadian maritimes and we lost out on opportunities for additional snowfall as a result. This pattern will produce the opposite and will feature storms spinning in the Gulf of St Lawrence/Newfoundland region for days and days. Tuesday's system will do that and although Wednesday might be dry, we could see moisture return later in the week in some form presenting the Green Mountains it's first opportunity for snowfall with the new regime. 

Alright, now I get a chance to talk more about this weather pattern, a blocked weather pattern supported disproportionately by the -NAO or a downstream block over Greenland.  In my opinion there has been an irresponsible level of cold weather hype for this pattern though there is little historical correlation between a weather pattern supported almost entirely by a -NAO and bitterly cold arctic air. Ensemble data really doesn't suggest it either but it has not stopped folks from predicting extreme temperatures. I should expect we see some garden variety below normal temperatures, likely peaking around the 9th and 10th of the month in New England, but I don't think the cold weather will be especially distinctive this month or during this pattern. Storminess ? Now that's a different story. I would never belittle a -NAO, I just think it's misunderstood sometimes. The most defining event of the 21st century so far, Superstorm Sandy struck the northeast and in October of 2012, a month that featured an aggregated -NAO measured at -2 (similar to what is expected in the coming weeks. So, I think the hype is misguided and should be focused on storm potential and not cold and I would not at all want to understate the former in this type of setup. 

How will such a storm happen and when ? That's why weather forecasters get paid the big bucks, to be as vague as possible ! But actually, we can come up with some idea. Though we don't have a ton of support from the other teleconnection indices, we do have a little, particularly in the Pacific where jet stream energy is expected to continue undercutting a ridge trying to establish itself in the north Pacific. Such a feature would allow storms to enter the southern Rockies and then gather moisture from the Gulf of Mexico while the -NAO helps to keep the storm track south. We can add this to what was discussed earlier, the potential for storms and moisture getting wrapped up in the maritimes of Canada and perhaps even getting sucked westward underneath the blocking to the north. It's not out of the realm to see snowfall from moisture entering our picture from regions several hundred miles northeast of us in Canada. It's an atypical situation, but very typical in a pattern like this.  The downside and unusual in December would be for the storm track to remain southeast of us as it has done in months like February of 2010 (until the end). So, stay tuned this could get interesting.

A World Cup cycle of similar pre-season conditions with La Nina and a -PDO making another return

Winter arrived right on time across northern Vermont but it was nonetheless an abrupt shift from the torrent of tropical weather we saw in the period between late October and November 13.  The winter weather and snowfall on November 16th forced the cart before horse as far as blogging efforts are concerned and you all are still owed a preseason outlook before we get too buried in specific outlooks. Speaking of debts, I am aware that the post season summary was never finished last year. I thought it might go unnoticed, but a few of you sent me some very nice reminders and it's nice to see even a few folks appreciate my efforts in creating the end of season summary. I still have a draft of the summary that was mostly finished, but day job responsibilities became so chaotic in April of this past year and 10 minute chores were taking 2 hours. You all know and understand how that is and things have settled down enough to allow blogging efforts to begin on time this winter season. 

In the spirit of the World Cup which has commenced in Qatar, we are about to complete a full World Cup cycle of some similar early season conditions. I am not entirely happy about that as I would prefer to be staring a set of variables that might support a weather pattern capable of locking cold and snow across interior New England for a longer duration than a few weeks such was the case last year. Unfortunately and to pay homage to the Motown classic from the Four Tops, it's the same old song and i am hoping that a few subtle differences give a different meaning since to this winter than the last few.

ENSO

2022-23 will be the third consecutive winter we will be encountering a significant La Nina and it looks similar to the previous two seasons with ENSO conditions landing in what I would describe as the "moderate La Nina" category. La Nina's can be very good over interior New England and very typically the results are a lot better than areas farther south. When the pattern doesn't line up however, La Nina virtually guarantees New England some very intense pushes of mild air from the south and often times there can be several adverse events over a multi-week period that can put a major crimp in the snow season. Essentially, you need extra help from other causal variables that help determine a prevailing weather pattern. This has happened over the course of the last nearly 75 years of MRG existence. 3 of the greatest snow seasons ever recorded here, 1970-71, 2007-08 and 2010-11 all had the same preexisting conditions even beyond the state of the ENSO. Speaking probalistically however, it is a lot to ask of the weather pattern to deliver in this setup for more than few weeks at a time and this is exactly the obstacles that have confronted New England snow lovers the last few winter seasons. 2020-21 could have been one of those epic winters in Vermont since we had high latitude blocking help for much of February, but the storm track shifted too far south and we were left in a unlucky geographical location. Last year we had 4 really good weeks and landed ourselves in the sweet spot for 2 storms, but the pattern wasn't capable of supporting winter weather for more than a month and much of both December, the last 2/3 of February and March were a struggle. 

I added last year to the chart which tracks the ENSO and PDO over the last several seasons. Not difficult to see the similarities to last year. 

 

 PDO

From ENSO we move to the Pacific Decadal Oscillation or PDO which, as I've mentioned a few times has some relationship to the ENSO though not perfect. La Nina winters tend to be associated with negative PDO mid-latitude Pacific SST conditions while El Nino's tend to have positive PDO SST conditions. We've basically been stuck with a negative PDO for what will be the 5th consecutive winter. A positive PDO is not a requirement for a healthy snow year in Vermont along with sustained cold weather but I do prefer it given the choice. We saw a record snow year (focused more in southern New England) with the extreme positive PDO values we saw in the 2014-2015 winter but the Super Nino winter of 2015-16 also saw some strong positive PDO values in a absolutely abysmal snow year in Vermont. What tends to bother me about negative PDO winters is the inability to lock a favorable winter weather pattern into New England for more than a few weeks at a time and I can expand on this more in the next paragraph. 

Positive PDO Phase 

 

 

Above is an illustration of a positive phase of the PDO. I think of it in terms of red and blue Pacific horseshoes with red being the positive phase and blue (current phase) being negative. The more I continue to track SST anomaly configurations in the Pacific, the more I become dependent on its predictive value, but I also think it is important to take that deeper dive into SST conditions in the Pacific rather than just look at the actual PDO values themselves. This is where I think there is some encouraging news. Notice the cool water that was featured in the Gulf of Alaksa last autumn and this continued through much of last winter. This autumn we've seen warmer water in the Gulf of Alaska along with the continued warmth farther west near the IDL. The formation and sustainability of a jet stream ridge over Alaksa, a key driver of colder weather in North America is thus more likely this winter than last. At the same time however, there are similarities to the last few winters that will discourage favorable or unfavorable weather patterns from sustaining for more than a few weeks at a time. 

 

 Current Year SST Anomalies 

 

 Last Year SST Anomalies

 

 Snowcover Expansion

We saw a fairly typical expansion of snow and ice over the northern hemisphere this autumn. The Rutgers Snow Lab recorded 18.66 millions of sq. km in the month of October which is lower than the 10 year average, higher than the 30 year average and comparable to last winter. The 7.9 millions of sq. km recorded in the North American continent told a similar story. Arctic sea ice expansion has generally been materially higher than the record low values set a decade ago but the last few weeks have not been good with ice struggling fill in over the Chukchi Sea northwest of Alaska. Ice has expanded very rapidly over the Hudson Bay and is several weeks ahead of last year's pace which I see as encouraging. Very cold weather in northern Canada should help that freezing process along for the next week but some extreme jet stream blocking predicted to situate over the Davis Strait over the next few weeks might slow that process down. Overall, I don't see any reason to be particularly encouraged or discouraged by the expansion of snow cover or expansion of sea ice this winter. 

 

Weather Pattern Tells ? 

Lastly, I want to discuss whether the atmosphere has tipped its hand over the past several months in a way that might be a tell on what the weather pattern might do this winter. It's encouraging to see some split flow emerge in the Pacific defying what one might expect during a La Nina winter. If this is to continue, it would not only blunt the impact of any Pacific evil empire but produce a few southern streamers that could evolve into big east coast snow producers. Aside from that however I am discouraged with the warmer than normal four of the past five months (including November) over New England. Some of this can be attributed by the continued presence of warm water along the eastern seaboard and while this can help add fuel to big nor'easters (when we get them), the net impact of such a feature would be a warm one in the aggregate. I might add however that the water in coastal New England has cooled in the last few weeks and will not enter the winter with some of the excessive SST anomalies we saw last year. I recall observing areas of the western Atlantic that were 5-7 C above average and this year at the same point we are looking at some areas that are still +3 C. That said, when we see big warm surges with the excessive dewpoints on multiple occasions early this past November, it serves as a reminder of both the harsh impacts of La Nina (when the pattern isn't good) and the impact of warm water in the coastal Atlantic on the intensity of these tropical infusions.

Lovers of snowfall may have noticed that in recent years, the Alberta clipper has lost some potency across interior New England. We depend on snowfall from these type of disturbances and they are a big reason our snow climatology is what it is. During the last several years however, New England has seemingly been the destination of where clipper systems come to die. There's been speculation of this being attributed to longer term trends in weather or climate change and I would not want to dismiss that; in fact, I wouldn't dismiss any realistic hypothesis. My take and this is also just a hypothesis is that the recent lack of clipper potency is related to the aforementioned warm water near the New England coastline. Since we have cooled this water somewhat going into this season, I am curious to see whether the clipper can be at least somewhat revived.

Summary / Outlook

So my outlook looks as follows. There are too many similarities to the last several winters to deviate from a similar predicted result overall. We are going to need help at high latitudes to make up for sea surface temperature conditions that don't favor sustained cold and snowy weather in New England. Fortunately it does appear we will receive some of that in the form of a giant -NAO producing Greenland block in early December. This will help on the snowfall side of things though I am doubtful it will produce extreme cold. Much of that I think will be over the northeastern Eurasian peninsula. I am encouraged by the sea surface temperature changes in the Gulf of Alaska and the blunted SST warmth in the coastal Atlantic. I think this should produce a colder result in New England over the course of the next 4 months but I still think we will stay on the above side of average. Again we should see some big northeast storms, a few of which should impact interior New England quite favorably. I expect 1-2 good stretches of winter lasting a few weeks but once again, one has to anticipate some crushing blows and La Nina fueled inland runners that will eat away at our snowpack and deliver setbacks to the season. Temperatures overall 1-3 above average which is not at all excessive and snowfall a bit below average but within range of normal. On the snowfall side of things, I think we will beat last year's snow total with the combination of some big east coast storms and hopefully, a revived Clipper season. The latter might fall into the wishcasting category, but we will see. Happy to be back again folks and look forward to seeing everyone on the hill.

Pattern expected to relax a bit allowing for a post Thanksgiving warm-up but hope remains for early Dec !

A widespread outbreak of cold across the U.S. has been impressive in its expansiveness and its ability to produce the 6-7 feet of lake-effect snowfall in those climatologically favored areas just south of Buffalo. The snow band that set up over Watertown, NY was equally impressive and somewhat unusual because of the persistent impact north of the Tug Hill Forest/Plateau in towns such as Watertown eastward to the Five Ponds Wilderness area of the Adirondacks. Lake-effect snow hounds are used to seeing the Lake Ontario snowband set up in the area bound by the famous snow towns of Barnes Corners, NY to the north and Redfield, NY to the south. There was a lot of thunder reported with both snow bands illustrating how unstable the boundary layer of the lower troposphere was in this airmass. Water temperatures in the eastern Great Lakes have been in the upper 40's or even low 50's while temperatures 7,000 feet up were in the high teens. That will make for a very dynamic weather situation and it certainly did. 

Aside from the deep snow in some of those snow-belt regions we've seen a widespread outbreak of below normal temperatures. As I suspected, the Vermont high country has put together a nice consecutive stretch of sub-freezing weather conditions but it's not nearly enough to erase what was an historically warm start to the month of November (November is still likely to be substantially above normal). The western two thirds of the U.S. are experiencing a rather cool month however and this is driven by an EPO which started positive at the end of October, but has recently plummeted to an index of -4 just as Buffalo was getting clobbered with snow a few days ago.  One can think of the EPO as a measurement of jet stream activity in the Pacific and has proven to be a very useful indicator of weather over much of North America. This along with many of the other key teleconnection indices were quite favorable for winter weather this past week but will neutralize as we advance toward December. The EPO will remain marginally favorable and there suggestions in the ensemble data of more split flow type of activity which is very encouraging going into winter. At the same time we are expected to lose high latitude blocking support over the next two weeks. The jet stream is not expected to go entirely zonal but won't at all favor widespread below normal temperatures in eastern North America. The most discouraging indicator is the PNA which would suggest that cold and snow is more favored over western North America as the calendar turns to December. Most of the ensemble data was showing this through the weekend but backed off today and was suggesting that cool weather would linger over the northeast even as the west receives both snow and colder weather. Keep expectations in check in early December, it can be a disappointing time in Vermont and I think this year offers more hope than most. 

I am not especially excited about the potential storm after the Thanksgiving holiday. This should be a rain event with the cold having receded well before the advance of any precipitation with this system. The storm is also expected to amplify way too early leaving the only chance for frozen precipitation at the end of the event. I fully expect to keep our few inches of snow through Thanksgiving but not through the upcoming weekend. Seasonal outlook is a work in progress but it's coming. Thanks for the continued interest.

Pattern change set to bring immediate taste of winter to northern Vermont !

 Happy end to summer everyone ! We have begun the first 12 days of November warmer than how the last 12 days of September. We've had 2 rounds of excessive, tropical 60-degree dewpoint nights (at two different times), and much of Vermont has been warmer so far this November than most of northern California, and I am not talking about the mountains but low lying coastal areas and the interior semi-arid regions. Honestly, the quality of our weather this fall has been pretty darn good with an extended period of comfortable temperatures and lots of sunshine, but once the calendar turns to November, I'd rather talk about a different kind of weather. After all, we didn't choose to live in Vermont for 65-degree Thanksgivings and rain on Christmas although I've reached a point where the latter seems almost normal. 

Through almost half of November, much of northern Vermont is almost 15 degrees above normal but the month won't finish that way and the flakes of snow Monday morning marks the beginning of an extended and welcome stretch of early winter. There's a lot to talk about with Wednesday's winter storm (get to that in a second) but thinking about the big picture from the standpoint of snowmaking operations, much of the Vermont high country above 2000 feet will remain below freezing through at least Thanksgiving morning. That's the next 10 days and its November so we could certainly do a lot worse. 

The upcoming year will mark enough one without El Nino (more on that in the seasonal outlook coming in a week or so), but the upcoming storm looks like one that might occur in an El Nino year. After enduring a miserable angry Pacific Ocean jet stream, conditions have quickly shifted toward a split flow set up, a beautiful sight for northeast snow lovers. We wont' hold that for long but it will produce our midweek storm which will take shape in the Mississippi Delta region and proceed northeast. An enhanced area of low pressure along the Atlantic coast will form early Wednesday fueled largely by more anomalous sea surface temperature warmth along our coastline. What does this all mean ? Snow should begin after midnight and persist through much of Wednesday and into Wednesday evening. 

How much could fall ? Though I don't think we are walking a tightrope, we are bound by some early season constraints and the possibility that the coastal area of low pressure might stay east of Cape Cod. Regarding the latter, I think that's less likely and I prefer the scenario where we see some more aggressive intensification and a track west of Cape Cod. This will bring some heavy snowfall to northern Vermont Wednesday but this also threatens to allow intrusive layers of warm air turn precipitation to more of a mixed bag with consistency varying depending on elevation. Precipitation type in this case can also be highly dependent on how hard it is falling. Heavier precipitation falls as snow but lighter precipitation might fall as rain, sleet or freezing rain. Much of the high country could still be subject to some mixing but I really believe these areas will stay below freezing making this event a great base builder. Snowfall in valley locations should be pretty wet I think but some powdery snow is certainly possible above 2000 and especially 3000 feet. It's a whole different world up high ! 

Snow totals should be in the 3-6 inch category across valley areas and 6-12 in the high country. I wouldn't be afraid to forecast more aggressively if I wasn't worried about some mixing which has the potential to impact all elevations (even the ones that don't see above freezing temps). 

Though I don't see any organized weather system in the days following our Wednesday event, we are looking at an impressive stretch of cold. What an abrupt shift in the seasons  and even a small blanket of snow should 1) remain on the ground and 2) help overnight temperatures fall into the teens several highs prior to the Thanksgiving holiday. There are smaller disturbances indicated to offer the potential for light snow but before I start promising accumulations from clipper systems, I should remind readers that the "clipper" has been a meager performer the last few seasons and I have hypothesized that it is a function of the persistent warmth we've seen in coastal waters in the western Atlantic Ocean. This said, the warm water in Lake Champlain (51 degrees as of Monday), a direct consequence of all that early November warmth will produce some crazy thermals and very unstable boundary layers across the northern Green Mountains this weekend and early next week. There will be intervals of sunshine but there should be several opportunities for snow showers and snow squalls in this set up. Much of this activity will be focused on the area from Stowe northward to Jay Peak but if we can shift the winds more northwesterly, Mad River Glen and Sugarbush will see some of this as well. As far as temperatures are concerned, the Iphone is starting to spit out some days where temperatures don't reach 30 and I think that's right. One day this weekend and one day early next week are likely to see readings in the 20's and maybe even low 20's. 

Lastly, it is good to be back once again. I was flattered by the emails I received asking about the post season summary this past spring. I wasn't sure anyone even read those, but I do enjoy doing them. My day job usually gives me some downtime for adequate blog updates but this past April and May just got crazy and 10 minute tasks were taking 2 hours. I actually have the summary half written but just couldn't finish it given the vortex of work I was hit with. Regardless, the blog begins again for another season with a preseason outlook coming within a week or so. In the meantime enjoy our early taste of winter !

Milder weather, wind and some rain will quickly erase any recent snow Thursday, but we are reserving the right to one last possible wintry breath for 2nd weekend in April

Unless we see some indications of a major snow event, certainly not out of the realm of possibility, this will be my last regular post of the season. I certainly enjoy the annual review of the cold weather months and how it impacted our ski season in northern Vermont, so check back for that in a few weeks. The recent round of cold weather and snow was just enough to reinvigorate MRG for a a few turns on Sunday and the continued snow Monday into early Tuesday appears to have helped Sugarbush secure a few powdery days though it has been very windy. There are more indications of cool weather in very early April but nothing rivaling this 4-day encore of winter weather. It's not a difficult prognostication given the timing but this is very likely the last 3-4 day stretch of sub-freezing temperatures we see this season unless one can manage to keep their activities over 3,000 feet (in that case you might have a chance !). 

The short term 72-hour forecast appears to be a microcosm of the recent winter season. Following a decent round of cold weather and a dose of powder, ripping southerly winds on Thursday lay waste to a any recent snowfall and further erode lingering snowpack above 2000 feet. This all happens after a tranquil Wednesday with morning sunshine bathing northern Vermont and warming temperatures from the teens into the 30's. Some clouds late in the day might be followed by a round of mixed precipitation Wednesday evening before winds increase out of the south, sending temperatures well into the 50's across valley locations Thursday and 40's even at the highest elevations. The mild temperatures aren't necessarily the problem here, but the wind, higher dewpoints and some rain are certainly capable of sending the Vermont winter landscape further into memory. Winds will become westerly Friday and cooler temperatures will envelop the region for the first full weekend in April but I would not anticipate a full return to winter. Low level instability will favor elevation sensitive rain and snow showers but temperatures will remain close or even above the freezing mark during most of the period with the exception of the highest mountain summits. 

The early part of next week appears to favor the best chance for fair weather with sub-freezing overnights and 40's and 50's for daytime temperatures. During the later part of the week and extending into the weekend of April 9th and 10th, there have been indications of another push of milder weather that might quickly give way to a more amplified setup. Around the time of April 8th and 9th would be the potential time frame for what could be a east coast weather event of some significance including some spring winter weather in the mountains. If you are hoping for one last big storm, this could be our last shot for something with the ensembles making a move toward milder temperatures by April 11th.

Terrific setup for some intense snow showers Sunday into Monday across the MRV high country

Winter is poised to make a late March return to northern Vermont. Though the strength of the cold weather in the period between late Sunday and Tuesday is impressive, it is not atypical for interior New England to get bouts of January-like weather in early spring. March and April in Vermont can quite frequently feature the most volatile weather of the year and outcomes have ranged from near heat in 1998 or 2012 to intense cold like in 2011 or 2014 to big snow like we saw in March both in 2018 and 2019 (and plenty of other years). We've managed to mix it up pretty good this month and gone with the "all of the above" option, but with winter lined up for the final encore. 

The intense area of early spring cold air is poised to get infused into an impressively deep jet stream trough in eastern North America. Lingering relative warmth underneath this trough on Saturday is going to create a dynamic and convective setup across interior New England with any sunshine triggering instability clouds and a mixture of rain and snow showers. Valley locations can expect sprinkles and an occasional mixed rain/snow shower while the high country above 2000 feet will see some occasional heavier snow showers. The setup is certainly convective enough to produce graupel, a northern New England staple in early spring resulting from these type of setups. The MRV is actually not well positioned for Saturday's precipitation with the wind direction more westerly (favoring areas such as Jay Peak) while a disturbance passing to our south focuses showers on southern New England. This will change on Sunday as winds become northwesterly and low level cold arrives from Canada. Snow showers will be intermittent in valley locations but more persistent and occasionally heavy over the Vermont high country. It's worth reiterating how absent this has been from our recent winter season. Most of our snow deficit this year can be attributed to the lack of instability and terrain enhancement and specifically the inability of the weather pattern to produce a setup conducive for such. Sunday into Monday will feature the best conditions of the season for the very type of snowfall we have been missing. Though a rather innocuous 1-2 inch accumulation on grass can be expected in valley locations Sunday, 3-6 inches of mostly powder can be expected above 2000 feet and this snow will continue Sunday night into early Monday. Snow totals can be tricky to predict in these instances as some areas can get luckier than others based on where individual snow bands setup and exactly how the wind is blowing, but 6-12 inches is my guess for the MRV high country as a two-day total by late in the day Monday. 

Clouds will begin to decrease by later in the day Monday setting us up for single digit temperatures Monday night and a better visibility day on Tuesday. Monday will feature temperatures mainly in the teens which is over 20 degrees below normal. The sunshine on Tuesday will help boost readings into the 20's but above-freezing temps should hold off until Wednesday and perhaps even Thursday above 3000 feet. Both milder air and rain will put this wintry encore to bed late on Thursday into Friday but a second encore is not out of the question in early April. A rather persistent ridging feature above the Yukon is responsible for some of this and there is evidence of some split flow in the jet stream which could help give rise to more storminess in the first few days of April.

Some cold weather and snow is likely to make a brief return to northern Vermont in a week, but only after another rain event late Wed/Thur

Hope everyone is enjoying or has enjoyed the last "offiical" day at MRG. I was certainly hoping to be able to report on a potential storm late this week, but that is not to be unfortunately. The pattern does appear quite capable of delivering a decent round of late March cold beginning around March 27th. A day late and a dollar short for the storm late this week but it would not be impossible to spin something up about a week from now.

 Temperatures have been running even warmer than my warm expectations the last several days but we still can expect a return to sub-freezing mountain weather both Sunday and Monday night (3/20-21). Snow showers appear likely Sunday night into early Monday but northwest flow at jet stream level should allow cloudiness to decrease as the day progresses leading to a chilly but clear Monday night and a bluebird type of Tuesday with just scattered fair weather clouds. We can probably squeeze another dry day out of Wednesday with temps starting near 20 and rising into the 40's. My disappointment relates to the storm late this week. I had hoped that a storm would bring 1-2 feet of powder to Colorado for my trip out there and then proceed to somehow do the same for Vermont and neither appears to be the case unless you are in the San Juan Mountains perhaps. This is another example of a strong system in the plains just getting too wound up too early and the cold weather we were hoping to infuse into this system getting delayed. It is thus a rainy outlook for us beginning Wednesday night and persisting into at least part of Thursday. 

Friday and Saturday appear drier and cooler but not cold with temperatures likely to remain above freezing except at the high summits. The cold weather arrives Sunday and with it comes a slight chance that a storm can quickly intensify along the New England coast. Models have been inconsistent on this idea the last few days but the Euro Ensemble showed the best signal yet this morning for a low pressure center bombing over the maritimes. We will need more than just a storm in the martimes for deep snow but we will have at least a few days of cold weather persisting into early next week (3/28 -29) before temperatures are indicated to moderate.  There is a deep enough trough associated with this cold air to allow for a healthy layer of low level instability and lots of snow showers even if a storm doesn't materialize. This is often the case in spring during cold weather outbreaks and I would be surprised if we don't see some accumulating snow during this period across the high country as a result

Even with operations suspended at MRG. I'll do a few more updates and then a season wrap-up.

After an incredible St Paddy's day, we pay for it with a dark, gloomy, rainy Saturday, though outlook does look colder next week

St Patrick’s day 2022 turned into an absolute winner. An average March/April will have a few days like this sprinkled into the very gradual upward temperature slog, but I feel I should note how much I’ve come to appreciate the sun-decking weather at MRG with a full blast of March sunshine corning it up from top to bottom. Hopefully, many of you got a chance to get out and enjoy it and if not, Friday is a slightly cooler and somewhat cloudier version of Thursday with temperatures holding in the 50’s. The slightly cooler weather marks the advance of a weak low level push of cooler weather. Though the cooler air won’t be strong enough to put the corn horn away Friday, it seems intent on fouling up the weekend forecast. 

For as much as I love the weather on St Patrick’s day, I absolutely hate spring days like Saturday. That, aforementioned cooler air is strong enough to wedge itself into the interior New England mountains, keep temperatures across the high country in the high 30’s with little to no visibility. The cool air is not strong enough however to turn the rain to snow, and the wet weather will begin around dawn Saturday and continue sporadically throughout the day. Saturday gets a decided failing grade from me, but some classic New England payback for a perfect St Paddy’s day. As mentioned in the previous update, some cooler air aloft will begin to advance into Vermont Sunday but this will be a gradual process and I wouldn’t count on any snow; instead, we should see clouds and intervals of sunshine with temperatures reaching 50 in valley locations and 40’s on the mountain. 

Beyond Sunday the outlook does look colder and I think it will turn out somewhat wintry as well after we sort through all the details. Colder temperatures will settle over the region on Monday and it will remain unstable enough across the high country for some snow showers. It’s possible to see an accumulation, especially above 2000 feet but I wouldn’t guarantee that yet. Flurries will likely continue into Tuesday although it does appear we will see a bit more sun by then, Both Monday and Tuesday will see the return of some sub-freezing temps in the morning with readings climbing only slightly above freezing each afternoon. The most interesting weather feature over the next 2 weeks appears to be an event in the Thursday-Saturday time frame (March 24-26). We have a weak area of early spring cold air in eastern Canada and a much stronger dose of cold will be heading southeast in central Canada thanks to the formation of a small but notable jet stream block in the arctic, north of Alaska. At the same time, a weather feature should be advancing our way out of the southeast. In the aggregate, models aren’t screaming big storm, but some necessary ingredients appear to be in place for at least something. It will be certainly be worth watching models sort this whole situation out and it would be consistent with the up and down nature of this past winter season, to produce a big storm after another round of warmth. 

Expect cold weather to follow whatever kind of weather we get late next week and persist for several days into early in the following week, lets call it March 28th or so. The cool signal on the ensembles begins to fade after that as we advance toward April 1.

Some wet snow Tuesday night but outlook overall has lots of spring including a dry and balmy St Patrick's Day

 After a beautiful weekend storm and some light snow early Monday, spring invaded northern Vermont and for the most part those conditions will prevail for the duration of the season. There are a few exceptions that will earn a place in this update but we can safely say that the lower mountain will spend lots of time above the freezing mark (most of the time during the day) while the upper mountain sees more occasional 40-plus temperatures. 

A weak disturbance in the jet stream on Tuesday will try and make a name for itself off the New England coast Tuesday night and it sets the MRV up for a classic spring snow situation by Wednesday morning. The upper mountain is positioned about as good as it can be to earn a few gloppy inches beginning Tuesday evening and persisting into the overnight. Actually, the whole mountain should see at least some snow (2-5 lower to upper mountain); but again, the snow consistency will be some version of wet. Valley areas below 1000 feet, which got pretty warm Tuesday will see some mixed precipitation go to snow and a minimal accumulation. Much of what falls Tuesday night will melt on Wednesday thanks to a strong dose of March sunshine. Temperatures will respond and reach the 50 degree mark in valley locations and 40's on much of the mountain. 

Thursday and Friday are also expected to be quite balmy with 50 degree temperatures encompassing the lower mountain during both afternoons. The question for Thursday relates to sunshine since a rain producing storm to the region's south will have a shield of clouds covering much of central and southern New England. Northern Vermont should steer clear of any rainfall on St Patrick's day and any clouds are at least thin enough to allow for the outdoor beer drinking and relaxing on the MRG deck type of weather. Any clouds on Friday should not bring any rainfall to Vermont but I am afraid this is not the case for Saturday when a significant storm system will approach out of the Mississippi Valley and bring widespread rain to all of New England. Saturday's storm has very little cold air to work with and even the optimal track that the Euro model appears married to will struggle to produce much snow even at the mountain summits. It is a strong enough storm with a deep/cold enough upper low to allow for some elevation sensitive wet snow on Sunday however with temperatures in the 30's. This follows the wet 40-degree temperatures Saturday. It's worth keeping an eye on this storm for any changes given the fact that it does bring with it, substantial amounts of moisture

Very typical late March weather follows for early next week with temperatures rising in the 40's during the day across valley areas while remaining in the 30's over the mountains. It should remain blustery through this period with Sunday's upper low still close enough to allow for instability and elevation sensitive snow showers Monday and Tuesday. Wednesday and Thursday are expected to be a little milder and there is a possibility for more rain on Thursday .

 The last update was 4 days ago and their were indications even then that the last full weekend of March had the potential to be cooler and potentially stormy. Models have yet to give us a consistent answer but indications of cooler weather and storminess have been amplified especially when looking at the European and Canadian Ensemble guidance. Could winter give us an encore performance on the 26th/27th ?  We got a chance at least !

A modest 12-20" inch event expected for Saturday/Saturday night across the MRV high country

Some minor adjustments are needed to the weekend forecast, but we still are looking at one of the better events of the season. The 2nd week of March is typically around the time where snow at the Mount Mansfield stake is at it's highest (~70"). Right now, we are at roughly 60 percent of average there and certainly in a lot worse shape further down the mountains so the need for snow is certainly dire. 

Snowfall expectations need to be trimmed 4" on either side for two basic reasons. The first and most important is the storm track. Models have settled nicely on a consensus but that consensus would have a strengthening area of low pressure track from the Delmarva to the eastern Cape as opposed to over metro Boston. As a general rule, the MRV can still perform very well when a storm tracks over Cape Cod, but this will remain a compact storm Saturday with a narrow moist conveyor. The 2nd reason is what models are showing as a slower intensification verses expectations a few days ago. This very quick moving storm will still be maturing along the eastern New England coastline and this will limit the expansiveness of snowfall Saturday afternoon. Still, we remain in a very good spot and are likely to see a colder storm in the aggregate. Snow will begin in the predawn hours Saturday with temperatures in the lower 30's, but readings will fall into the 20's very quickly on the mountain and should stay cold enough to support powder thereafter. Snowfall should remain very steady throughout the ski day but I don't see indications of 2-3 inch an hour snow in the current data. We likely see 5-8 inches by 4 pm with snow continuing through the evening. Winds will align very nicely late in the evening off Lake Champlain in an already very moist lower troposphere and this sets us up well for terrain enhanced snowfall through much of Saturday night. It's worth reiterating that snowfall forecasts that you might see in valley locations are not going to account for this (nor should they), but this accounts for the discrepancy in expectations with my forecast meant specifically for the high country above 1500 feet. So in summary, it's 5-8 during the ski day, another 2-4 during happy hour and another 5-8 during the overnight and the 12-20 inch total by Sunday morning. 

The storm clears out very quickly Sunday and the clouds will break for time (accompanying temps in the teens and 20's) but a small disturbance in the eastern Great Lakes may step in the way of a full day of sun. This disturbance marks the approach of milder air will will blow into the region very quickly after a chilly morning Monday on southwesterly winds. Temps are likely to approach 50 in valley locations and reach the 40's on much of the mountain though temps might stay in the 30's at the highest summits.   A weak cold front will then bring some mixed precipitation consisting of rain changing to snow at high elevations early Tuesday. Any precipitation will be short lived and skies should clear later Wednesday and then remain clear through Thursday. Even the cold front won't keep us out of spring mode however and below freezing overnights will be followed by above-freezing days on Wednesday, Thursday and Friday. Readings could get excessively warm Friday afternoon. 

A couple of shifts in some in the longer range outlook compared to the last update. After a potentially warm day on Friday, March 18, the weather looks more unsettled in the weekend that follows. Precipitation looks mostly rainy with minimal available cold available but a deep enough storm could produce some high elevation snow as time progresses. Ensembles then snow another warm period around March 22nd and 23rd but they've also trimmed the AO outlook to neutral and are suggesting that the last week of the month will be cooler and more unsettled. I won't use the word cold and snowy yet but the month might not go out with a torch and a whimper.