Clouds fail to break until the weekend with only a light accumulation of snow expected

 I've actually been keeping score in a little spreadsheet at home and have logged 24 out of 31 days with clouds for the month of January. I certainly hoped to see some of those low clouds periodically break this week and so far that has been a big fail. I still think sunnier times lay ahead this weekend and early next week, but man they don't make this easy. 

Higher resolution models show clouds remaining in place for Thursday, keeping temperatures just below the freezing mark on most of the mountain. At least those clouds should produce a bit of light snow for us Thursday evening, night and Friday morning. It's enough to produce an inch or two of light snow by the start of the ski day Friday, but winds appear to remain more northerly limiting the moisture from Lake Champlain thus putting a lower ceiling on accumulations. The other limiting factor for snow Friday is an area of enhanced lower pressure south of Long Island. This is likely to produce some early morning rain and snow for them but puts a lid on the moisture over us. I think we see flurries for a while on Friday with those accumulations remaining in the lighter 1-2 inch category. I expect some blue sky and maybe even a sunset for Friday evening as the storminess departs and northwest flow at jet stream level ushers in more dry air. 

What about that sunshine for the weekend ? We still have what should be a sunny start to Saturday before clouds from a very weak clipper system to our east threaten to bring at least an interval of cloudiness (see I am moving the goalposts already). Sunday, Monday and Tuesday all appear to feature sunshine with the monster, mostly rain producing southern streamer staying well to our south. I actually noticed a bit of a northward shift with this feature but the storm is expected to stay well offshore and not have a significant impact on our weather though we will continue to watch it. 

As next week progresses, it is again likely the grow cloudier with moderating temperatures. Readings are likely to stay well below the freezing mark and not far from seasonable levels to start the week and later in the week we can expect a stretch of above freezing temperatures. Models are showing more evidence of  resistance in the warming later next week which is good news and also suggest that at least some frozen precipitation remains a possibility. After that, there are much clearer indications that the weather pattern fundamentals improve. The Arctic Oscillation is expected to actually turn negative early next week (It's currently a very unfavorable +2) and once this aligns with a positive PNA structure, colder weather is expected to return both the southern Canada and eventually New England. The weekend of the 10th and 11th continues to appear quite mild  with colder weather and accompanying storminess returning just before Valentine's Day.

Drier jet stream keeps the snow potential lower and warmer temps west of us over the next week

 The 3 or so inches of snow that fell Sunday evening was very much needed following the stretch of above freezing temperatures late last week. We now enter a stretch of drier weather aided by a dry jet stream. We are still set up to avoid any excessive warmth through the middle of next week or around February 7th, but we have only one real chance for meaningful snow which i will highlight below and a pipe dream early next week. 

The cloud-cover stuck with us through all of Monday over the Vermont mountains and though we are expecting predominantly dry weather through the ski day Wednesday, sunshine is expected to stay limited though we should see intervals of blue sky. I am prepared to deliver the news that we have the best stretch of sunshine in weeks on the way however, I can almost promise ! Temperatures are expected to remain just below the freezing both on Tuesday and Wednesday and then creep above the freezing mark Thursday even as clouds thicken. 

A clipper system is expected to drop right over the top of us from Quebec Thursday evening and spread some very light and sporadic snow over northern Vermont as it does this. As this system continues to push south and east of us, it will turn winds and provide us with a nice opportunity for snow showers enhanced by our elevation and the unfrozen lake to our west. As we get closer to Friday, I will be able to focus in on stability parameters and better describe the snowfall potential early Friday. One thing we do have a better handle on as of Monday is timing. Snow showers appear likely through early Friday afternoon and then dry air envelops the region thanks in large part to that  jet stream I described. If you like bluebird winter days and like them on the weekend, I have good news. Blue sky can be expected both Saturday and Sunday with amazing visibility and afternoon temperatures in the teens and 20's. Though it won't be quite as cold as the weekend of Jan 20th and 21st and certainly sunnier, I would still expect some gusty northwest winds Saturday (20 mph) and sub-zero wind chills. Sunday's winds won't be calm either, but a touch friendlier than Saturday. 

The bluebird weather appears likely to continue through Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday of next week. It would take a massive northward shift related to a storm system expected to drench the southeast U.S. Sunday and Monday to disrupt this outlook. Chances are good a northward shift of this magnitude doesn't occur and our stretch of sunshine continues, but one can never say never with these types of events given the absence of a strong polar jet. Assuming it remains sunny in accordance with my current expectations, temperatures will slowly moderate reaching the middle 20's Monday, high 20's Tuesday and near 30 on Wednesday. The clear skies will allow for some chilly overnights early next week and the snow cover puts sub-zero readings in play. 

I love how we've managed to avoid the mid-continent torch through the early part of February, but ensembles are starting to provide us more focus on a period of warmer temperatures around the weekend of February 10th. Interestingly the teleconnection indices start to improve by then and colder air is certainly showing signs of reestablishing itself over Canada even as the east coast warms up. The most encouraging feature by mid February is the appearance of some ridging over western North America and Alaska by the middle of the month. Alaska is in the midst of a vicious cold wave that has largely erased what was a very mild start to the year. A good portion of the state is now below normal for January and the state's largest city, Anchorage, is enjoying a high of 10 degrees Monday with a 36 inch snow pack. Yes, it's Alaska but Mad River Glen averages more snow, similar temperatures and more daylight.  Speaking of daylight, our first 5 o'clock sunset comes on February 1st this year, just ahead of our big stretch of expected sunshine. 

Another northward shift, another 3-6 inches Sunday evening and more torch avoidance !

Should have known better ! The  big known obstacles that often put a lid on northward shifting storms are really not in play late this weekend. No big power polar jet to drive storms offshore or suppress them south and this like many other northward shifting storms, is a well established maturing cyclone that will reestablish itself as a coastal system by Monday morning. It's all good news for powder hounds in the MRV which should see snow falling as the ski day concludes Sunday. The heaviest snow should come over a several hour period during the evening Sunday. Not quite long enough to make this an epic storm of a foot or more, but long enough to make this a solid 3-6 inch event with snow lessening in intensity before dawn Monday and tapering to flurries by the start of the ski day. Temperatures will be a few ticks below freezing as snow begins late Sunday but should fall into the middle 20's by Monday morning and hold in the upper 20's during the ski day with an accompanying gusty north wind keeping wind chills closer to zero and even below at times. 

We have a unique jet stream configuration for the upcoming week and I won't complain. I've talked a lot about the mass expanse of warmth over the central part of North America and it sure is ominous looking yet it won't have much of an impact on Vermont over the next 10 days. Though it won't be cold relative to average over Vermont and the rest of interior New England, the steering currents in the jet stream, aimed at us from the northwest will keep us protected from the ongoing torch in the central part of the continent. This is also a drier jet stream overall and although we will have our chance at some new snow during the first full weekend of February, we should have a lot of days without precipitation and several days that include both sunshine and better visibility. We haven't seen an overwhelming amount of that so far this year or this winter. 

The clearing skies might even arrive as the ski day is ending Monday and the departing storm continues to strengthen offshore. Tuesday appears to be a calm day with several hours of sunshine and temperatures in the lower 20's. Wednesday appears to be similar with a slightly warmer near 30 degree temperatures and a period of cloudiness. That Manitoba mauler I had discussed in the previous post is certainly a big part of the weather map during this period but passing well to our west and then south and ensuring that drier period which should persist through early Thursday. 

A second clipper system dropping right over the top of us late in the week is so far east that it might appropriately be referred to as a Quebec careener. Original name or not it is an interesting system and ensures a colder sub-freezing outlook through next weekend and also brings our best chance for some new snow in the next 10 days (after Sunday night of course). The clipper itself is likely to bring some light snow to us but its passage is also going to bring an opportunity for some Champlain and oragraphic enhanced snows either Friday, Saturday or both. It will be interesting to see how models handle this situation in the coming days but it certainly possible we see some of the best weekend skiing so far this season even as much above normal temperature rage on a few thousand miles to our west.

Ensembles are dropping major hints of a major league southern streaming storm in the February 4th or 5th period. It's a dream setup for the southern Appalachian Mountains, a region that typically scores a big storm such as this during a sizable El Nino such as this. We have 10 days for potential northward shifting so its never too early to ask though at face value, these same ensembles suggest a dry outlook for Vermont with above normal temperatures but still mostly below freezing across the high country through around February 7th. There are hints that temperatures could creep toward the 40-degree mark toward the 2nd weekend of February, but I am taking a victory lap on avoiding any of this or rain for at least the next 10 days. Go us ! 

Freezing rain changes to a period of snow early Friday while a more promising outlook has emerged for early February

A materially better outlook today driven largely by the fact that the warmer trends we keep seeing in the longer range have stopped and in fact reversed. There's also improvements in the shorter term outlook, specifically the part that included all the rain early on Friday. Though the storm responsible for the incoming precipitation will successfully bring near 80-degree to portions of Virginia, it will be the colder air that will win battle for Vermont. Cold enough at least to bring temperatures back toward the freezing mark Friday morning with some light plain rain changing to freezing rain and sleet during the early morning and then eventually changing to snow by 10/11 AM. The snow will be heavy enough to accumulate 2-4 inches before ending Friday evening. Though not a big accumulation, it still represents a remarkable turn in the forecast that once looked both pretty mild and wet. 

The upcoming weekend, the last of the month, looks mild relative to climatology with temperatures in the 30's by day and 20's during the overnights. It also looks dry which is the unfortunate part. Saturday will remain cloudy, but with very calm winds and limited visibility. On Sunday we will watch a large weather system exit the gulf coast and bring lots of moisture toward the eastern seaboard. This is a storm that will need to make a northward shift to bring significant or even any snowfall to northern Vermont and its encountering a jet stream which will certainly try and redirect the strengthening cyclone offshore and to our south. Northward shifts are always possible, especially with southern streamers and a weak polar jet. As of Thursday however, a consensus has certainly emerged to keep the bulk of the snowfall south of northern Vermont. I expect we do see a bit of light snow Sunday evening and a light accumulation before it turns blustery and colder Monday morning. 

It is warm and going on warmer next week across the central part of North America with thawing temperatures surging northward to the northern part of Alberta, Saskatchewan and Manitoba. On the weather map, the building ridge and mild air associated with it looks like a giant wave ready crash itself into northern New England. At least through next week, that mild air won't make the eastward push and Vermont will remain on the east flank of that ominous warm weather ridge which keeps winter in place and open the door for a few interesting possibilities. Clouds should give way to some sunshine on Monday with blustery north winds bringing temperatures from the teens downward to sub-zero levels by Tuesday morning. Readings should rebound back into the teens during the day Tuesday when a Manitoba mauler type system dives southeastward toward the eastern Great Lakes. Models continue to yield divergent solutions in terms of how this system might impact Vermont, but one very real possibility appears to involve a decent window of Champlain/terrain enhanced powder in the Wednesday/Thursday time frame. It is also this system that will reinforce the separation between the very mild air positioned to our west and the more wintry conditions that will prevail over us. There are a few other possibilities with this storm as well and I've seen enough varying potential outcomes to stress that uncertainty remains. 

The midweek Manitoba mauler will help keep sub-freezing conditions over the northern Vermont high country through Groundhog Day, February 2nd. The first weekend of the month appears to be the next instant when all that warmth across the central part of North America tries to push eastward. Though it does appear mild relative to typical climatology, the warmth doesn't appear excessive and only capable of bringing temperatures past the freezing mark at lower elevations during the afternoons. Beyond the first full weekend of February, I was delighted to see more evidence of split flow in the jet stream with the area of mild air across Canada finally weakening. Though I would expect milder than average temperatures to prevail over Vermont for the first 10 days of the month, the new snow potential looks a lot better over the past two days. Lets hope this trend continues !

Milder temperature outlook into early Feb is still at least dotted with some snow or snow potential

Not the enviable existence to be a winter weather and snow enthusiast in an outlook consisting of another round of raging warmth covering much of the central part of the North American continent. Vermont and much of interior New England are not positioned to take the brunt of this warmth but our outlook still has both mild temperatures and rain to go along with a possible decent storm late in the weekend. 

We also have some snow in our short term outlook. This begins around midnight Wednesday and should fall lightly but at a steady pace through mid-morning. The overrunning snow does not look especially impressive though we are still positioned well to receive 2-4 inches before precipitations turns to a light freezing drizzle later Wednesday. Another steadier round of precipitation is also expected to fall as some freezing rain Wednesday evening before a milder push of temperatures turns ever it all wet by Thursday morning. Models indicate that clouds will prevail for Thursday, but if the sun breaks for even just a few hours, it will urn into the mildest day of the month with temperatures soaring well into the 40's even on the mountain. Even with the clouds, Thursday will be balmy with above-freezing temperatures all day quickly melting any ice. 

It's a bit disheartening to see arctic air go into this kind of retreat mode even as the Pacific remains reasonably cooperative. El Nino has finally showed clear signs of weakening, cooling a few tenths of a degree celsius in critical equatorial regions and approaching a category defined more as "moderate" as opposed to a "strong" ENSO. Warmth above the 40-degrees north line in North America is a prominant feature in any El Nino and the recent arctic outbreak was a break of from that. Just as the fundamentals became so universally supportive for such an outbreak  they have quickly reversed with some of the coldest weather across the northern hemisphere indicated to position itself over Greenland and Alaska over the next 10 days, two regions that have been very warm so far this month. 

Continuing with the shorter range weather picture, more wet weather is expected to approach northern New England Thursday night with rain arriving around midnight Friday in the MRV. No flood risk or huge melt off with this event fortunately. A last second low level cold push will actually try to push temperatures back toward the freezing mark Thursday evening and brings with it a chance for some icing. Recall that this is the event I had more or less thrown in the towel on as far as any hopes of getting snow. It does look like a colder event though and if your geeky enough to keep score at home, 3 degrees C away from some snow Friday morning. For now though the event looks rainy or icy with precipitation ending Friday morning. 

El Nino continues to produce an express train of storminess with another event lined up for Saturday night into Sunday. Though I am a little concerned the jet stream might confine the action to our south, at least this is a snow or no situation in Vermont and potentially a good one if it all breaks right with the storm track. As of Tuesday morning, the prospects for such an event certainly were improved and I would put the chances of a decent snow event at about 40 percent. A few days of sub-freezing temperatures follow this potential storm on Sunday carrying us through the rest of January before we are yet again challenged by the raging warmth to our west. I am pretty convinced the first 10 days of February will consist of well above normal temperatures and around 2 forty degree temperature days. I was a little more encouraged to see more signs of split flow in the ensemble data and this keeps us in the game to to speak to churn up a decent storm even with the limited cold. 

Cold weather retreats and modifies in the coming days but new snow is expected for Wednesday

Just an outstanding bluebird kind of day on the mountain Sunday with the bright sun and minimal wind really mitigating the chill of the recent cold weather. I hope folks got a chance to enjoy it in some form because those days have been few and far between this year and appear very few and far between over the next 10 days.  At least the first half of Monday appears to be another sunbath with temperatures warming from sub-zero levels all the way to 30 degrees, but clouds are expected to be on the increase in the afternoon and clouds are a big part of the outlook beyond that. 

The recent outbreak of arctic air across the country is modifying while the available resupply of cold air is retreating northward into Canada. Across the middle part of the United States, the impact is dramatic with temperatures warming 50-60 degrees over the course of a week. New England, which really never got all that cold during the recent bout of cold air, will also be slow to warm in spite of the terrible looking jet stream highlighted in the previous post. Just as temperatures begin to challenge the freezing mark this Tuesday, arctic air will force its way back into northern New England (just barely) and we have a nice setup for some overrunning snow on Wednesday. This snow should begin Tuesday evening and continue into early Wednesday, a steady light snow with temperatures within a few degrees of 30. Over the years, I've seen northern Vermont overperform quite a bit in these type of setups with light snow often persisting longer than anticipated. Though this could be another one of those cases, the warmer push of temperatures is expected to push the overrunning zone of snow farther north as Wednesday progresses and snowfall accumulations should remain in the 3-6 inch category. 

Thursday appears to be just cloudy and mild and so long as we can remain out of the stronger southwest flow, it should remain just mild as opposed to excessively mild with temperatures in the 30's to near 40. We are clearly lacking enough cold air as the next weather system early Friday. I've more or less thrown in the towel on this puppy and just hope most of the precipitation stays south of us somehow. There has been some evidence of a low level push of cold from the northeast though I think this raises the concern for ice more than anything else. Ice or rain or nothing, it all should be over by the start of Saturday, which appears to be another mild day relative to normal with temperatures in the thirties. 

The last few days of January into early February look like a blowtorch for much of the country but not for New England, the one place where winter will make, or at least try to make a stand. There's been some envidence of a potential storm Sunday January 28th into Monday January 29th, a late northeast coast bloomer from two merging systems. There's also been some evidence of a temporary return of some arctic chill with some some accompanying snow right at the end of the month. At the very least, it looks like a more wintry 5-day period for the region even as much above normal temperatures rage across the northern plains and portions of the Great Lakes. The ridge responsible for that warmth is indicated to push east toward New England according to ensemble data for the first full weekend of February. Though we continue to see a somewhat cooperative Pacific, we aren't getting any help from the various teleconnection indicators which are actually indicated to turn very unfavorable to start February. We have some things going for us to start the month which include a weakening El Nino and a neutralized Great Lakes aggregate which has cooled thanks to the recent arctic outbreak, but we still need a little help from the weather pattern. Hoping to see a little more evidence of split flow in the jet stream which would certainly go along way to alleviating my concerns.

Beutifuul cold, wintry weekend to enjoy the recent snow and then we fend off an initial attempt to warm the region next week

 Terrific stretch of winter days continues in northern Vermont. Snow squalls from over the weekend over performed and this was followed by a beautiful cold, steady snow on Tuesday that fell over the top of a solid January base. The snowstake at Mt Mansfield has now totally recovered and then some, resuming its position that it had earlier this winter of an above average snow depth. Now to the challenge of keeping that going into February ! 

 Certainly no challenge to winter over the weekend with the coldest weather so far this season expected. As highlighted in the previous update, Friday's storm will not come together far enough to the north and is struggling to completely come together entirely as the upper air energy in the polar jet is coming in a little too flat to produce a "proper" coastal ignition. Winds will start to increase out of the northwest as the day progresses Friday and the sun should make an afternoon appearance to go along with 10-15 degree temperatures on the mountain (a bit higher in valley areas). There's only a limited layer of instability available to us on Saturday so even though our wind direction off Lake Champlain can't get much better. Snow showers should stay on the lighter side though I do expect we see those occasionally to go along with a few intervals of sunshine. Saturday is the coldest day with below zero wind chills, but actual temperatures should stay above the zero degree line (about 5 above I think) throughout the day. Sunday should feature a little more sunshine, a little less wind and afternoon temperatures of near 15. When you combine all that with the recent snowfall the mountain has received, it really makes for a really terrific January winter weekend not only for downhill skiing at MRG but for about any outdoor winter activity. 

The stretched PV dropping over New England and then proceeding off shore allows for a dramatic temperature moderation across all of the United States early next week and much of southern Canada. At face value, we are contending with a ugly looking jet stream next week that could theoretically support a multi-day thaw. Fortunately, Quebec is pushing some lingering cold back in our direction and a confluence area in the jet stream over the maritimes of Canada keeps the excessive temperatures out of Vermont through most of next week. In addition to that, that same confluence area supports the notion of some overrunning snow, or the kind that tends to form when northward pushing warm air is clashing with existing cold. The door is now open for some accumulating snow Tuesday into Wednesday of next week thanks to this setup and temperatures during this time frame should stay mainly in the 20's on the mountain. When might it get above freezing ? I remain a little concerned about Friday and the last weekend of January. I've seen believable model scenarios where we mostly avoid the excessive warmth and see only thirties Friday the 26th into Saturday the 27th and I've also seen some reasonable scenarios where we get a bit of rain and a day with temps in the 40's. We've got a hearty base of snow now on the mountain underneath all the recent powder with a lot of water content so I expect to survive whatever comes our way into early February. 

Longer range ensembles have been moving away from the idea of any widespread attack of arctic air in early February. Blocking at high latitudes is simply not setting up in the right place to allow for that threat. That said, the warmup next week across Canada appears short lived and the generally cooperative Pacific combined with some ridging above the Bering Sea is expected to allow arctic air to rebuild over the country referred to sometimes as "The Great White North". Unlike the recent arctic outbreak, New England appears best positioned to be on the receiving end of colder intrusions on the last few days of January into early February. Is it possible to get some of the coldest weather of the season during the first few days of February like we did last year ? Yes ! We've managed to escape a widespread night of sub-zero temps so far and the starts are beginning to align for one in early February. We just need some snowfall to go along with it (appears possible) and the colder outlook to continue into the middle of the month which right now appears hard to see with conflicting indications and teleconnections indices.

Snowfall forecasts drop over the next 7-10 days as Friday storm appears suppressed and milder temps threaten to push northward next week

Just a beautiful cold snow Tuesday and several days of cold weather to enjoy it. Tuesday morning snowfall has been light, but a few hours of steadier snow Tuesday afternoon should get us to 3 inches with another inch falling when winds shift out of the northwest Tuesday evening, blowing in some moisture from Lake Champlain. Clouds and snow are keeping temperatures in the teens Tuesday and Wednesday's readings should be a few degrees under that with gustier west and southwest winds pushing the remains of the midwest chill in our direction. The southwest wind direction is typically a warm one for the MRV, but Wednesday is an exception since south and west has been where the cold air has been the last several days. I think we squeeze a few hours of sun out of Wednesday though clouds are expected to advance back into our area again later in the day. 

Clouds are also expected for Thursday with temperatures in the high teens and just a little bit of light snow. Accumulations should be minimal and I think we are looking at about a week of very minimal amounts of new snow. Yes, we have the ingredients in place to produce a decent storm for Friday, but the polar jet is expected to suppress or confine much of this action well to our south. It will give us a chance to get some cold sunshine, especially over the upcoming weekend but I am ready to write off the Friday storm as a miss. If the Friday storm fails to come together entirely it does keep the door open for some terrain induced snow Saturday, Saturday night into early Sunday, fueled largely by the very unfrozen Lake Champlain. A big storm off the east coast can have the effect of reducing the available moisture and increasing stability in this setup, but a lesser storm would keep the door open for snow showers over us. Shallow arctic cold is limiting the depth of potential instability, but Lake Champlain is very warm providing some of the needed thermodynamics. I think we will receive at least a few hours of sunshine in either case over the weekend but it will be chilly with temperatures below zero during the morning and struggling to get into the teens during the afternoon. 

The split polar vortex will have dropped its renaming available cold for the weekend and will provide a large swath of the Untied States to warm considerably next week. Vermont will experience this as well with temperatures climbing into the 20's Monday and 30's for Tuesday. I was happy to see more evidence of some resistance to this warmup across eastern Canada and it appears possible that we can escape excessive temperatures or rain next week. We could even get really lucky and squeeze out a few inches of warm advection, overrunning snow as mild air to our southwest battles it out with the weakened but prevailing cold in eastern Canada. The jet stream certainly doesn't look exciting next week at face value though I do see a potential pathway through with minimal damage.

The warm-up next week comes as a result of the dramatic loss of high latitude blocking. The Pacific continues to appear relatively cooperative with just one small blip; in fact, the Pacific appears ready to produce another round of split flow at the end of January just a ridge begins to reemerge over western North America. Certainly some reasons to be hopeful that a new period of storminess could begin around the time of January 29th even if we experience a lull in new snowfall over the next 7-10 days.

Wintry upcoming week perhaps culminating in an east coast storm Friday

Very cold arctic air is making its eastward advance toward Vermont. Football fans saw a sub-zero game in Kansas City on Saturday night and that airmass will broaden its impact in the coming days. The polar air is taking the scenic route on its trip to New England, traveling well south of the Great Lakes. Whenever arctic air envelops us from the southwest in this way, Vermont typically avoids the "extreme" chill and this week will be no different. Temperatures will be in the teens and 20's for during the day through much of this week with overnight lows falling to the single numbers. We won't even be manage to match Oklahoma and Kansas chill from the weekend which is another reason to be fascinated by how weather can work. 

A mixed bag of weather ended as a nice burst of snow to wrap up the ski day on Saturday and the snow burst will be another theme for Sunday. It will be of the colder variety as well and as a disturbance in the polar jet brings the likelihood of a snow squall on a day that should already feature plenty of flurries. It will be gusty during the squall and gusty anyway with temperatures hovering around 20 on the mountain. More sunshine, less wind and better visibility can be expected for the holiday Monday though it will be a little chillier with high temperatures remaining in the teens across the Vermont high country. Snow accumulations Sunday will be in the 1-2 inch range.

I am pretty convinced the polar jet will suppress the big storm activity for Tuesday though models are indicated an inverted trough type feature capable of bringing some light snow and another light accumulation for us. Wednesday appears drier and should include a few hours of sunshine with clouds and potentially more light snow possible for Thursday. As mentioned temperatures will be well below freezing, but not extreme by Vermont standards. 

The polar vortex will get stretched eastward this week over southeastern Canada and will ultimately split with the trailing piece dropping over New England Friday. There's a lot of intriguing weather that can happen in this situation with plenty of cold air in place and the polar vortex weakening and slowing, providing an open door for east coast storm development. The New England coast is the more favored location in such a setup, but a large swath of the region could certainly see accumulating snow Friday followed by a chlly weekend. I had mentioned in an earlier post that we could see a round of extreme chill on the weekend of Jan 20-21, but the available arctic air appears somewhat modified and appears less likely to produce excessive sub-zero weather though it will certainly be lower than 20 degrees with sub-zero wind chills. 

Some things to like and not to like regarding the long range. The PV drop for next weekend, once it passes will clear the polar jet from New England and temperatures will modify dramatically by January 23rd and January 24th. The advertised jet stream would suggest mulitple days of above freezing temperatures. With the Pacific and EPO remaining cooperative, any warmup shouldn't last long and there are growing indications ridging in the jet stream will return to Alaska, funneling a quick return of arctic air toward Vermont before the end of January.

Snow, sleet and some minimal rain for the early part of MLK weekend and then it turns gradually colder

Got some light snow and a solid winter foundation as of Thursday afternoon January 11th, the beginning of the middle part of January and the heart of the winter season. The disturbance responsible for the snow is legit, and should bring a 2-4 inch accumulation to Mad River Glen by Friday morning. Winds will also turn more northerly behind this feature and allow temperatures to fall closer to 20 Friday morning drying out this snow and giving folks some powder to ski in. Models indicate enough drying to open the relentless overcast skies for a few hours Friday so enjoy the good visibility while we have it. Arctic air should provide more eventually, but that's at least one weather system away. 

Another formidable weather system makes its approach Friday night. All of southern Wisconsin have a Winter Storm Watch and Chicago is expecting a decent accumulation by Saturday. Like its predecessor however, this storm is missing the ideal storm track mark placing us in another defensive posture ahead of the holiday weekend. In spite of this, models have been indicating that this weather system will "do what it needs to do" to keep precipitation frozen for the high country (I can't promise that for the valley areas). There's every indication of a more robust low pressure transition to the coast locking the minimal sub-freezing cold in place over northern Vermont. The initial, primary system responsible for the midwest snow is also expected to occlude, further mitigating the threat of a significant warm intrusion or extended period of rain. So what's the problem then ? Interestingly, the cluster of higher resolution models are confining the heaviest precipitation south and east of us and closer to the development of the coastal system. We actually need to pull this moisture farther north and west if we are to attain a 6-plus inch event. Not an impossible ask given the general nature of the system, but its simply not what's being shown. What is being indicated is a models snow/sleet event with a very minimal amount of rain or freezing rain possible Saturday morning. 3-6 inches high resolution model consensus with the American GFS model giving us a better event. 

Lower elevations are going to contend with several hours of above freezing temperatures Saturday while the high country should see a return to sub-30 degree by the afternoon. We can expect a break in the precipitation by around mid-morning Saturday before snow showers return later in the day. We have a nice pool of instability behind this storm but we are lacking our favorite wind direction (the northwest wind). The southwest winds limit the upside on the accumulations from snow showers but we still should get some and other 1-4 inches by Sunday morning.  Meanwhile, a major arctic invasion will be flooding the plains and midwest and working its way eastward slowly. Vermont will see temperatures hold in the low 20's Sunday and MLK day with some limited sun and some occasional snow flurries. 

The slow eastward advance of the core or arctic chill certainly leaves the door open for the southern stream to go to work on the east coast and churn something up. We've seen multiple indications that something will materialize late on Tuesday, especially for southern and eastern New England, but the polar jet makes both the forecast and the actual occurrence a challenge. The PJ is a different animal and a slight change here can lead to big differences in outcomes. I love the combination of a formidable El Nino and arctic chill though. A storm might fail to come together one day and then pop up by surprise on another. As for the cold, we should see temperatures continue to fall Tuesday into Wednesday, recover some on Thursday into Friday and then plummet for the weekend of the 20th and 21st perhaps to the coldest levels of the season. The late week period continues to be a time frame where we could see a snow event materialize though models weren't really showing that as of Thursday afternoon.

Beyond January 21st, we appear to lose the support of high latitude blocking mechanism, though one will remain west of the Bering Sea. As this happens, the Pacific continue to have its foot off the gas and this should prevent a full scale retreat of arctic air on the North American continent. We should expect temperatures to moderate for the week ending Friday January 26th but I am not sold on a major thaw.

Incredibly active week of storminess to add snowpack to the northern VT high country, albeit the hard way !

One layer of cold powdery snow has been deposited and a second layer is coming, though its safe to say it will be of a different consistency. A powerful cyclone has spun its way into the midwest, not far from Chicago Tuesday morning. The storm is responsible for snow, heavy rain, wind and severe weather and Vermont is earmarked for a few of these items Tuesday night into Wednesday. Unfortunately, the storm is tracking too far into southern Quebec to completely avoid the ice and rain, but with the storm expected to go through an occlusion and transfer some of its energy eastward, we should be able to score this as a net gain to our snow (though not as powdery one as I mentioned). Precipitation starts as snow Tuesday evening and should really thump for a few hours, bringing 4-6 inches of snow throughout the MRV. The snow will start cold, then get wetter around midnight before transitioning to freezing rain in some areas or rain in others. I It should all be over within a few hours of daybreak as winds shift abruptly to the west and temperatures spike briefly into the 40's. Speaking of those winds, there has been legitimate concern over that and I can't speak for all areas of northern Vermont as I am not entirely familiar with how certain wind directions interact with every local oragraphy. Across the MRV however and in many of the interior valleys, the east-southeast wind that is expected Tuesday night into early Wednesday, at least the most intense version of it, should stay just above the surface. In many locations, you may hear the wind ripping away up on the mountain even as it remains calmer in the valley. The gusty west winds should be felt in all locations Wednesday and eventually we can expect snow showers to reemerge, significant enough to produce an inch or two of snow up on the mountain. An upper air disturbance passing through on Thursday is likely to bring more of the same. We don't have the wind direction off the unfrozen Lake Champlain for heavy snow showers, but another inch or two is certainly possible. 

Never heard anyone refer to Vermont weather as boring and this week is a testament to that. Another strong storm gears up to impact the region Friday night into Saturday. Aside from some morning flurries, the Friday ski day is dry, but clouds will thicken by evening and heavy precipitation will arrive during the ensuing overnight hours. This storm is a little colder than its predecessor in a few ways. The track is futher south and east (closer to Montreal) and is also expected to make a more robust transition to the Maine coast. In spite of that, I can't believe we are playing defense on another storm attempting to track to our west. This is very unusual in an El Nino year with downstream blocking well established, but the polar jet is trying to force a jet amplification that allows for such a track, plus the warm Great Lakes (cooling fast) is still a northward pull. I still expect this to be a pretty solid event overall though short of a home run. I expect to see another several hour period of moderate to heavy snow and then some sleet and if we get some rain Saturday morning, I think it will be minimal. Temperatures also, are not likely to climb significantly above freezing on the mountain. The same can't be said for the Champlain Valley (also expected to see temps surge on downsloping winds Tuesday night) which could see temps spike to 40 early Saturday. The weather in Burlington and the weather over MRG is and will be very different early Saturday. Additionally, the set up for snow showers later in the day looks decent and the entire chain of mountains can expect some additional accumulation later in the day Saturday into Saturday night. It's early to make a guess on accumulation but I'll make one anyway and say 6-12 (snow and a some sleet) .

It will be interesting to see if lake effect snow squalls can make it north over Buffalo as they host an NFL playoff game this Sunday. Never gets boring to watch them play football in a snow squall, at least for me. Snow showers over northern Vermont are also expected to shift north as the holiday weekend progresses as temperatures gradually move to the colder side. Much of the central park of the U.S. will see an impressive arctic outbreak beginning this weekend. I don't think New England will get the brunt of this particular cold wave, but we can still expect a more standard round of below normal temperatures. Since we sit on the front edge of the arctic envelopment, the door will remain open for more storminess and models have sporadically shown action along the east coast which I consider to be potentially legit. One such event might occur around the time frame of Tuesday the 16th and another potential time frame for snow is Friday. 

After that, the high latitude blocking is actually expected to break down quickly but the Pacific appears quite favorable enabling the existing arctic cold in Canada to remain in close proximity if not over New England. Storms in the southern stream could make good use of any existing arctic chill to produce another storm. It certainly has that kind of potential.

5-10 inches of steady cold snow Sunday followed by a wild week of weather that we hope will end with a MLK storm

 Northward shifting sounds like a dance some fool like me might try at a wedding. It's got a pretty nice connotation when it comes to weather around here though since it typically involves moving snowfall expectations higher. In this particular case the storm in question just looks a little stronger, a little farther north and should spread steadier snowfall throughout the entire state and of a powdery consistency. Snow should begin within a few hours of 9 pm tonight and continue through much of the ski day Sunday. Though the heaviest snow continues to appear south of us, the snow in northern Vermont will be persistent with temperatures on Sunday holding in the high teens. Accumulations by Sunday evening will get into the 5-10 inch category while winds will be light to moderate except at the summits where skiers can expect them to get a little gusty out of the northeast (20-30 mph). 

Clouds are expected to linger for part of Monday though the accumulating snow will be over Sunday evening. Monday's temps will climb into the 20's and then fall to the single numbers early Tuesday as clouds decrease over the fresh snow cover. I've been watching the weather system late Tuesday into Wednesday for a long time now on the various model simulations, waiting for a southward or eastward shift. This very powerful midwest storm will make an effort to transfer some of its energy to the New England coastline but can't quite complete the process; plus, the shear power of this cyclone presents us its own challenges. Temperatures for a time will be cold enough to support snow as precipitation begins Tuesday evening and several hours of heavy snow are possible before warmer air forces its way over central and northern Vermont. By Wednesday morning we should be seeing sleet, freezing rain or just plain rain for few hours. Fortunately, it all moves east very quickly and is over by midday or early afternoon Wednesday.  Keep in mind, we could see quite a bit of wind particularly on Wednesday once the low pressure area passes. We might be able to avoid the strong easterly winds Tuesday as those winds stay above the surface. 

A strong signal has now emerged for a third in this impressive series of storm systems early on MLK weekend . It's a fun time across North America with the pineapple express throwing lots of storminess our way, arctic air continuing to build across the western part of the continent and lot of Gulf of Mexico and Atlantic Ocean moisture prepared to get involved in the action. December was a very wet month across Vermont and undoubtedly precipitation amounts will be well above normal in January as well. We just more of it to fall the right way and have a much better chance to do that with a storm early on MLK weekend which should mature a little slower and track further south and east. I've got put this out there that perhaps I should just retire the blog and just forecast a holiday melt down followed by big storms on MLK weekend and in the middle of March. Crazy how in recent years we've seeing varying iterations of this play out. Got quite a bit of uncertainty that remains with this system so stay tuned. 

Less uncertainty remains regarding a widespread attack of arctic chill for the country beginning around MLK Day and lasting at least a week with cold weather likely to persist in New England through much of the remainder of the month. The real question relates whether this unrelenting storminess is allowed to continue as the colder drier moves south or whether that action is suppressed for a time. It's pretty tough to bet against the strength of this El Nino and the storminess that has resulted from it. It would blunt some of the force of the arctic chill, but it sure would be fun to watch the snow fall.

Light snow Saturday night and Sunday, an epic battle next week and a cold outlook beginning MLK weekend

Greetings arctic air !! It's been a while, but we're happy to have you back and hope you intend to stick around this time. By the looks of this weather pattern, we might be able to accomplish that, though it's going to be a ride over the next week. Lots of things on the weather map to watch starting a weekend snowstorm for the northeast. This already juiced up southern streamer will get an added supply of Atlantic Ocean moisture and further intensify off the Jersey coast Saturday night into Sunday morning. The track of this storm doesn't favor heavy snow for central and northern Vermont, but it doesn't favor a shutout either. The entirety of the MRV should see light snow develop Saturday night and continue through most of Sunday. Certainly nothing spectacular, but temperatures will be in the teens and 20's all weekend and 2 to as much as 5 inches is a welcome sight. Yes, we have a few outs left in this baseball game and could northward shift ourselves into a heavier accumulation. I'll keep my eyes open for that, but I don't consider it as likely. 

Alright, there is a lot of discuss with a  potential storm next week. We saw some good trends here, but the horses aren't in the barn yet and its admittedly frustrating. We have a lot of the right ingredients to make this happen. Arctic air will be spilling into Quebec and try and wedge itself into interior northern New England late Monday into Tuesday . Most importantly is a massive block in the jet stream setting up shop just east of Greenland that can often (though not always) work to keep the storm track south of us. In this case, the active Pacific will produce a mammoth storm for the eastern Rockies and southern and central plains early next week. This sucker intensifies way too early for my liking and will spin its way toward the eastern Great Lakes. A downstream block and cold air damming battling it out with a storm that is trying desperately to push warm air our way. We need the storm to occlude, transfer its energy to the coast and halt any warming. Models are showing hints of this but not as much as I would like. The low pressure conglomeration is aimed right at or a little north of us Wednesday. We need a southward and eastward shift !Even as it stands now, we are in line to get some substantial snow and sleet Tuesday night into Wednesday which would make this a nice base building foundational type of event. It's still possible for a better storm though and we are owed ! 

As that is all happening the mechanisms are in place for a massive buildup of arctic cold in western North America. The train of Pacific systems is slowing the southward progress of this cold but the EPO is expected to weaken by the end of next week and allow more of this cold to spread further south and east over North America. The air behind Wednesday's weather system doesn't appear especially cold but by MLK weekend I expect more of that to enter our weather picture. There's also more storminess indicated out ahead of that arctic push with another potential storm indicated just prior to that aforementioned holiday weekend. Again, we need favorable track for some heavier snowfall to occur and the jet stream as of now, seems happy to aim another one right at us. A very warm Great Lakes aggregate thanks to all the warm weather in December is certainly not helping us in this regard. This will change over the next few weeks but this and the strong El Nino are tertiary adverse influences. 

The El Nino I mentioned appears to have peaked for the season which is good news going forward and so is the weather pattern which is supportive of sustained period of colder weather for the middle to end of January. The NAO plunges to a -2 next week before relaxing, but remaining favorable while ridging over the Bering Sea works to drive cold southward and weaken the jet over the Pacific. We will conjure up some sort of storm or multiple storms in this period beginning MLK weekend and lasting through most of the rest of the month. It's a very nice looking set up !

Light accumulations of snow and sub-freezing temps through the weekend while we watch and hope for the right kind of storm next week

The sun didn't show up like I thought it would on New Year's day, but it was nice to see temperatures miss expectations to the cold side, something that didn't occur much in December. The sun has shown up for Tuesday, the first official business day of 2024, which should feature some of the best visibility in 10 days. There are a lot of potential storms that should, at the very least bring more cloudy days to Vermont in the coming weeks, but we should at least have a brief reprieve that will last through about half of Wednesday. 

New snow arrives on Thursday with the return of some arctic air. I have big welcome mat set out for the airmass and I am very happy to see the North American  continent build a very healthy pool of arctic chill over the next week. The polar airmass on Thursday just grazes us but the clipper system responsible for its arrival will bring some limited moisture and turn winds in a favorable direction for enhanced terrain induced snow showers and squalls. We should get a bit of both on Thursday and 1-4 inches of resulting snow. In the next day or so, I can better assess if there is some potential for more as the high resolution short term models better clarify the stability parameters, wind and how long we have the favorable setup for the aforementioned snow. Accumulations will mostly be confined to the high country, but snow squalls will be possible anywhere and it certainly will be cold enough to accumuulate everywhere with temperatures generally in the 20's on Thursday. 

Single digit temperatures and blue sky will be the story for Friday, a day that will start a little blustery but should finish with diminishing winds. On the mountain temperatures will struggle to get past 20 in spite of that sunshine. Blue skies are expected to linger through early Saturday before clouds overtake us. As expected chatter regarding an east coat snow storm has increased. Many areas in the path of this storm (I 95 corridor) haven't seen significant snow since 2022 so that area has a good chance of breaking the drought. Northern Vermont does not appear to be in the best spot for heavy snow with this event, though the MRV should receive some snow beginning after midnight Sunday and continuing through part of the daylight hours. With a few days still to go before this event commences, there remains time for northward shifting. It would be beneficial for snowfall because of a better track obviously, but northward shifting is also a natural result of a more intense storm. Not a likely scenario right now, I would keep expectations in the 2-6 inch category, but not off the table either. 

The pattern fundamentals are slowly improving but the Pacific jet stream / EPO index remains a little problematic next week and it results in a clash of competing forces. Energy from the Pacific will allow an intense storm to form near the eastern Rockies in the Sunday/Monday time frame. The early maturation of this storm, a common theme when the Pacific gets overcharged, is likely to result in a major low pressure area tracking toward the Great Lakes and looking to attain "inland runner" status before impacting Vermont late Tuesday into Wednesday of next wee (Jan 9 & 10). As I've mentioned in prior posts, we do have downstream blocking that should help prevent such an outcome and allow for snowfall to remain a possibility. Though we saw some of the medium range models move in that direction today, a wetter, windy outcome remains on the table if one is to believe data from the Euro. Don't get too discouraged on this one yet, a lot of possibilities remain. 

The Pacific is indicated to weaken after the passage of the aforementioned storm  and by the end of next week, some of the strongest cold in the northern hemisphere will position itself over Canada. This is quite a shift from the torch-a-thon much of Canada saw last month. How, when and where this cold descends on the U.S. remains to be seen but as I mentioned, the pattern fundamentals continue to support the southward transport of at least some of this cold. The continued strength of El Nino and the continued rigor of the southern stream of the jet stream can be a natural blockade so it would help if Nino would weaken some which it has showed signs of doing in eastern equatorial regions. Still though, Nino 3.4 readings of nearly 2 C above average is formidable. We may have peaked but haven't come down the slope too far as of yet.