Freezing rain changes to a period of snow early Friday while a more promising outlook has emerged for early February

A materially better outlook today driven largely by the fact that the warmer trends we keep seeing in the longer range have stopped and in fact reversed. There's also improvements in the shorter term outlook, specifically the part that included all the rain early on Friday. Though the storm responsible for the incoming precipitation will successfully bring near 80-degree to portions of Virginia, it will be the colder air that will win battle for Vermont. Cold enough at least to bring temperatures back toward the freezing mark Friday morning with some light plain rain changing to freezing rain and sleet during the early morning and then eventually changing to snow by 10/11 AM. The snow will be heavy enough to accumulate 2-4 inches before ending Friday evening. Though not a big accumulation, it still represents a remarkable turn in the forecast that once looked both pretty mild and wet. 

The upcoming weekend, the last of the month, looks mild relative to climatology with temperatures in the 30's by day and 20's during the overnights. It also looks dry which is the unfortunate part. Saturday will remain cloudy, but with very calm winds and limited visibility. On Sunday we will watch a large weather system exit the gulf coast and bring lots of moisture toward the eastern seaboard. This is a storm that will need to make a northward shift to bring significant or even any snowfall to northern Vermont and its encountering a jet stream which will certainly try and redirect the strengthening cyclone offshore and to our south. Northward shifts are always possible, especially with southern streamers and a weak polar jet. As of Thursday however, a consensus has certainly emerged to keep the bulk of the snowfall south of northern Vermont. I expect we do see a bit of light snow Sunday evening and a light accumulation before it turns blustery and colder Monday morning. 

It is warm and going on warmer next week across the central part of North America with thawing temperatures surging northward to the northern part of Alberta, Saskatchewan and Manitoba. On the weather map, the building ridge and mild air associated with it looks like a giant wave ready crash itself into northern New England. At least through next week, that mild air won't make the eastward push and Vermont will remain on the east flank of that ominous warm weather ridge which keeps winter in place and open the door for a few interesting possibilities. Clouds should give way to some sunshine on Monday with blustery north winds bringing temperatures from the teens downward to sub-zero levels by Tuesday morning. Readings should rebound back into the teens during the day Tuesday when a Manitoba mauler type system dives southeastward toward the eastern Great Lakes. Models continue to yield divergent solutions in terms of how this system might impact Vermont, but one very real possibility appears to involve a decent window of Champlain/terrain enhanced powder in the Wednesday/Thursday time frame. It is also this system that will reinforce the separation between the very mild air positioned to our west and the more wintry conditions that will prevail over us. There are a few other possibilities with this storm as well and I've seen enough varying potential outcomes to stress that uncertainty remains. 

The midweek Manitoba mauler will help keep sub-freezing conditions over the northern Vermont high country through Groundhog Day, February 2nd. The first weekend of the month appears to be the next instant when all that warmth across the central part of North America tries to push eastward. Though it does appear mild relative to typical climatology, the warmth doesn't appear excessive and only capable of bringing temperatures past the freezing mark at lower elevations during the afternoons. Beyond the first full weekend of February, I was delighted to see more evidence of split flow in the jet stream with the area of mild air across Canada finally weakening. Though I would expect milder than average temperatures to prevail over Vermont for the first 10 days of the month, the new snow potential looks a lot better over the past two days. Lets hope this trend continues !