More powder for Saturday

Next week however is next week. Saturday is Saturday. The clipper responsible has more moisture at its disposal than most systems of its kind and it will strengthen considerably once it begins interacting with the Atlantic Coast. Precipitation will arrive around 7 or 8 pm Friday evening and will fall at a moderate clip for a good portion of the night. There is no doubt this snow will be powder in character and by first tracks time Saturday I think we have 4-8 inches for our skiing pleasure. Additional light snow Saturday morning is capable of bringing an additional inch or two before snow tapers off and skies clear. The warm late February sun will warm temperatures to near 30 at the base in spite of blustery conditions. Sunday's temps will be similar with less wind. If there is a snow softening, it will only be for a very brief time during the afternoon and only at the base.

Adversity strikes again early next week
Only in New England is it possible to get temperatures in the single numbers followed by rain within 24 hours. There are other regions of the world where this happens but its a regular occurrence in Vermont and is likely again Monday into Tuesday. The early March trouble spot has been documented on the SCWB and it results from the re-energized Pacific which will re-center the snow in the interior west albeit temporarily.

There are two systems in play here. The first takes an awful track deep into Canada although thankfully it lacks moisture and precipitation should be limited to a few showers Tuesday morning. The second system takes direct aim at us and arrives from the Gulf of Moisture with lots of moisture to work with. We desperately need some cold air to get involved though model guidance seems quite cynical on that idea. I think it would be pre-mature to write-off the system completely at this point since we have seen some 11th hour rescue efforts like the one we had in early February. A subsequent update will have the details all ironed out and maybe at that point I will have better news.

Better news for the weekend of the 8th/9th
The teleconnection indices aren't exactly lined up for glory later next week but we will see a western ridge build very quickly which will prove to be enough for a favorable outcome beginning March 6th. The pattern appears most amplified around the time of March 7th and March 8th which corresponds to the time when we have our best chance for more snow either from an organized weather system or instability/TIS. The ridge west/trough east regime appears to be a 4-5 day event which would stretch to March 10th. Without greater support from some of the more underlying fundamentals such as the AO or NAO I would not count on it continuing indefinitely.

18-30 inches by Thursday morning still applies

And the snow will begin within a few hours of noon on Tuesday. For several hours, it will be of the light variety and quite possibly the wet variety at the base of the mountain as temperatures hover a few degrees below freezing. It gets interesting with the onset of darkness Tuesday as a very impressive and intense area of vertical motion envelops all of northern Vermont. The snow will intensify dramatically and much of the accumulating snow from this system will fall in an 8-hour window prior to Wednesday morning. By first tracks time Wednesday, I expect 12-18 inches of powder to play in with temperatures in the middle to upper 20's.

The snow will slacken in intensity as temperatures cool throughout the day Wednesday but will not taper off completely and should continue into Wednesday night. Atmospheric profiles during the day do not reveal an unstable environment necessarily Wednesday but they do reveal very moist conditions stretching well up into the troposphere. Even a minimal amount of atmospheric lift combined with the little help from the Green Mountains should provide for a light but steady snowfall for an extended period of time. Enough for the additional 6-12 necessary to get the snowfall into the predicted range. Most importantly, the snow should be enough to provide for another powder day Thursday. If your thinking about wind, it will pick up in intensity late Wednesday and conditions will be quite blustery throughout the day Thursday. If your thinking about temperatures, readings will drop through the 20's Wednesday and will be closer to 10 on Thursday.

The leap year Alberta Clipper is also still in line to deliver for the weekend. Snow from this should arrive Friday evening and provide at least a few inches of powder for the ski day Saturday. It looks like we got some of the best skiing of the year over the next 5 days and there is no better place to enjoy it than MRG.

Here we go !!! Big mid-week dump is now in the making !!!!

And after another in a long lists of February 2008 busts late last week it will be good to focus on the next few days. Hey, I have taken so many different positions on the pattern and some of the storm systems within the pattern that I am worse than a politician. Like every good forecaster though, I can always claim victory since if you say enough different things at enough different times then you are bound to be right about something. I am thinking specifically of another famed forecaster that operates in the private in the sector (who will remain nameless), but proves that it gets worse when meteorologists go corporate on us. In my case, at least I put on the brave face and admit the inherent deficiencies of forecasting. All kidding aside, this has been a somewhat trying year on the weather front and particularly on the long range front. It is also quite a contrast to last year when the season was split in half between the unfavorable start and the favorable finish.

Winter storm bash
Once again, after a somewhat challenging week for MRG, we do a 180 and prepare for an epic week as the pattern amplifies once again only this time the ampflication will have us rock'n in the free world (credit - Neil Young) rather than flooded at the basebox (don't believe there is a song written for that thank god). Flurries could start Monday as the mountain sits just to the south of a sharp arctic boundary situated over Quebec. Some of this cold over the eastern Canadian provinces will play an instrumental roll in this upcoming storm as it will become entrained into the intensifying system during the middle of the week. This exciting looking storm system will make its exit from the southern Rockies Monday and will take a path up the Ohio Valley Tuesday. As opposed to last week, this system will take a more eastward trajectory as the pattern amplification proceeds. The storm will therefore make good use the Atlantic Coast and will deliver a major winter storm to all of interior New England as it continues to intensify northeast of Cape Cod.

The details including the possibility of 3 powder days
I would not be surprised to see a small accumulation of snow early Tuesday but the snow will begin in earnest during the day. Temperatures will not be especially chilly during the ski day and the snow will be of the wet variety at some of the lower elevations. As the evening progresses the snow will intensify and temperatures will begin to cool. The big question concerns the position of the moist conveyor. Although the storm will take a favorable track, MRG is positioned at the southern edge of the zone of heaviest snow and a dry slot is likely to envelop southern areas of the state during the night. This is the biggest uncertainty at this point and if we can assume the "no dry slot" solution then we are in line for an additional foot of powder by dawn on Wednesday. Even a dry slot however won't prevent a powder day on Wednesday. It also won't prevent wrap-around and terrain-enhanced snowfall which will continue through Wednesday into Wednesday night and make for another powder day Thursday. I think it is fair to say that a 3-powder day week is epic and is also quite achievable this week particularly if we can get some accumulating snow early enough in the day Tuesday. As for accumulations this is the preliminary guess.

By Tuesday morning: Around an inch
By Tuesday evening: 2- 4 inches
By Wednesday first tracks: 8-14 inches
By Wednesday evening: 5-10 inches
By Thursday first tracks: 2-4 inches

This makes for a storm total of 18-30 inches.

More snow for the weekend ? You know it !!
We will have some colder weather and wind to deal with late in the ski day Wednesday and into Thursday including well below zero wind chill values. The window of dry weather which will begin later Thursday will be a brief one however as a weaker clipper-like system dives into the Great Lakes Friday. The track of this system is still somewhat up in the air but precipitation-type will remain snow and the only question involves how much between Friday night and Saturday. This will be followed by a quick re-enforcing shot of arctic chill which will dominate through the duration of the weekend.

Long Range
A few days ago I had mentioned the possibilities of some challenges for early March which results from the re-strengthening of the jet in the Pacific. This remains the case and both milder weather and non-snow/non frozen precipitation are possible early next week. The most consistent thing about this winter has been its inconsistency and the ensembles do show that even the re-strengthening of the jet in the Pacific will be a temporary feature and may give way to something better late in the week.

Friday's system hits the upright and deflects right so we look to next week for help

This has been a rough week for MRG and a rough couple of weeks for the yours truly in terms of getting an handle on some of the madness. I had originally expected much better things from Monday's washout and was very optimistic about the TIS for Tuesday and Wednesday. We did get some but most of the action was to the south as resorts in Pennsylvania and West Virginia picked up several inches. Don't bother getting jealous though, those guys have had it very rough this winter in a region where La Nina is typically very unforgiving. I expect to see a few inches of the fresh stuff blown around the mountain Thursday but it will be a chilly and blustery day with temperatures struggling to reach the teens. We should see some clouds on Friday but the accmulating snow will be confined the the big metros like New York and Boston as the storm system responsible will fail to make any real northward progression. This storm appears as if it will remain a disorganized and broken entity but if one of the two significant pieces becomes more organized it could spread some snow in to northern Vermont even as late as Saturday. My advice though is to keep your expectations low since model guidance seems convinced across the board that this one goes wide right.

Weekend breakdown
The chance for any light snow diminishes as Saturday progresses but it does remain cold with temps in the low 20's. Sunday morning will be quite cold with temperatures below zero in the morning but warming to as high as 30 at the base during the afternoon with minimal winds. A few inches of snow Wednesday night and then an inch or two more Friday or Saturday would do wonders for what appears to be a pleasant weather weekend to be out though that projection is optimistic.

Time to focus on next week and its potential
The weekend cold modifies on Monday and the higher February sun could soften things up a bit Monday afternoon. Arctic cold will remain over central and northern Quebec and there is some serious disagreement on whether or not that gets into the mix during the middle of the week. This is a vital question as it looks like we are in line for another close call from the upcoming pattern amplification on Tuesday/Wednesday. This gets a bit technical but some of the forecast upper air charts look favorable late on Tuesday because they suggest that arctic air could envelop the interior New England prior to the approach of a developing storm system. At face value the medium range models are in their various camps saying many things as far as outcomes go. The consensus of information suggests that the storm, which will crank itself up across the central Plains, will take a less than desirable track but with enough cold air we could turn the argumentative into something very good. Terrain induced snow late Wednesday and Thursday could add to the potential good fortune. There is a long way to go and many bridges to cross before a verdict is reached as always.

Early March ???
What is more discouraging right now is early March. La Nina has been such a nuisance in the Pacific and it looks to be at it again by the first weekend of March. We are seeing a weakening of this pesky jet stream right now and it justifies some serious positive vibes for next week. By the first of the month the energy in the Pacific appears to re-consolidate and thus present more challenges for us going forward. In addition is the Arctic Oscillation. We fought so hard to get this index into the negatory but the expectation now is for the AO to go strongly positive again by late next week. Wish I had better news but it is what it is. Fortunately, the long range has been highly unpredictable this year with weeks with bad appearances turning out good and vice versa.

Flooding at the basebox ?? That is quite enough of that !!

Hopefully the staff can pull some heroics and rectify that situation quickly. In the meantime things are looking up as conditions in the lower part of our troposphere destabilize in the cooling air. The weather service has a 40 percent chance of snow showers in the forecast but for Tuesday and Wednesday it will be a question where you are in Vermont's undulating terrain. MRG of course sits in the 1800 to 3800 foot zone in the cross section of Vermont which will prove quite advantageous. Flurries should evolve into heavier snow showers on Tuesday. Subsequent to that will be the arrival of an arctic boundary, a reinforcing shot of arctic cold and more snow showers for Wednesday. It is very difficult to say how much snow the mountain can accumulate in the 48 hours ending Thursday morning but I will venture to say 5-10. Cities like Burlington or St Johnsbury are likely to see less than an inch. The best chance to catch the fresh powder still appears to be Wednesday morning following a likely couple of inches late Tuesday and Tuesday night. Thursday will be the coldest day of the week with temperatures below zero in the morning and struggling to warm to 10 during the afternoon.

So its on to Friday and another forecast challenge as subtropical moisture works itself into the cold airmass. This appears to be a classic overrunning front-runner and one that is capable of treating New England quite well. As for MRG it is a question of track, track and more track. The developing low has been forecast by the models to track anywhere from over the Adirondacks to over southern New Jersey and thus the results are still up for debate. A consensus of indications is for some snow during the day on Friday (a few inches worth anyway) and a potential powder day for Saturday but the range of possibilities includes everything from dry weather on Friday/Friday night to a snow to sleet outcome. We should see below normal temperatures linger on Saturday before readings moderate Sunday .


I am still somewhat encouraged by the early to middle part of next week but it appears as if another major jet amplification will put a big stamp on the Monday to Wednesday time frame. Ultimately, I think that new snow will be the result during the middle part of next week but a more organized system during the early part of the week could be seen as a friend or foe depending on the track it decides to take. Stay tuned on this one because we could see anything from a repeat of this past Monday to a bit tiem powder producer.

Next shot of powder comes during the middle of next week

Though we came out of Friday quite well off thanks to the squalls associated with the passing arctic boundary. We also came out of Friday quite cold but as us veterans of New England weather already know, cold weather doesn't guarantee you anything as far as getting all snow out of the next weather system. I can in fact remember a storm in the late 90's where temperatures plummated to -30 F in a few places only to rise 65 degrees in less than 36 hours as snow changed to a heartbreaking rain. This is not the kind of New England weather drama that pushes my buttons but we will have to deal with it unfortunately as our President's Day system is set to track from near Corpus Christi Texas to Flint Michigan. The coastal redevelopment of this low pressure center does not appear as it will happen either and as a result, any snow on Sunday evening will change to freezing rain and ultimately rain early Monday morning. Temperatures will climb to as high as 40 during the day Monday and southerly winds will do some damage to the base. Precipitation will then end later Monday and sinking motion in the immediate wake of the storm will probably keep MRG snow-free Monday night.

Wednesday & Thursday have promise
That gets us through the hard part and although Tuesday does not look like a powder day, the white stuff should be in the air by the afternoon. As discussed in the last update, the pattern amplification allows for a pocket of instability which should begin impacting the mountain later Tuesday. The result will be TIS and the snow showers should accumulate to at least a few inches by Wednesday morning. Even more encouraging is the appraoching disturbance or clipper system later Wednesday which could enhance the snow and provide additional accumulations for the mountain by Thursday. So as bad as Monday appears, we still could be in line for back to back powder days on Wednesday and Thursday if everything goes according to my idealogical plan.

Next Weekend and beyond
Along with some fresh powder, Thursday will also bring another reinforcing shot of arctic cold thus making it the coldest day of the week. And as if on cue, another mild push of air will arrive on its heels as a storm system in the plains moves northeast. The track of this next organized system is still somewhat uncertain but it apppears as if some snow can be provided during the day on Friday. The outcome later Friday and into the weekend still needs to be sorted out over the next few days. We could just be optimists and say the weekend has potential but the pattern next weekend will consist of a trough in the western states and a ridge in the east which means we are already facing a stiff headwind. After the weekend, the pattern still appears to take a turn for the much better thanks largely to the indications of several different areas of high latitude blocking and a potential splitting of our pesky Pacific Jet Stream.

A shift in expectations for Presidents Day

All the significant news relates to Monday's storm and until then there are no significant changes to report. An arctic boundary arrives during the middle of the day tomorrow and there is a weak weather system which is associated with this front that passes to the north. Mad River will not receive much in the way of moisture from this storm but snow showers late on Friday could dust the mountain with upwards of an inch or two. Very cold weather then arrives on northwest winds on Friday night. Winds will gradually diminish by later in the day Saturday but temperatures will struggle to get past zero on the mountain. Sunday will be more comfortable with temperatures reaching the 20's and light winds as sunshine in the morning yields to a high overcast.

President's Day
The news for Monday isn't good. As expected, the pattern will become highly amplified with a ridge in the jet stream stretching from the West Coast up through the Yukon and a developing trough in the middle of the country. Highly amplified patterns however are good for some and bad for others and although it is quite typical that the amplifications are favorable for east coast locations it isn't always the case. As for Monday, the ridge/trough axis will develop too far to the west and will thus force this once promising looking storm system to track from the Gulf of Mexico, west of the Appalachian Mountains and into the Great Lakes. In terms of actual weather, this translates to snow late on Sunday which quickly changes to sleet and then freezing rain and possibly rain for Monday. One thing that is rather surprising or alarming to me about this situation is that models are currently suggesting nothing in the way of coastal redevelopment. Northward progressing warm air is often nipped in the bud but such an occurrence and we did see indications of this a few days ago but much less so now. I am holding out hope because an unabated move toward milder temperatures in storm systems such as these is the exception rather than the norm. At the very least however, snow or ice is going to be difficult to avoid on Monday and the possibility of rain does exist.

Mid-Week
We are set up better for Tuesday as the low pressure center responsible for our potentially difficult situation on Monday strengthens over Quebec leaving a pool of much colder and unstable air in its wake across both New York and New England. We should see snow showers throughout the day as a result and although it is quite uncertain as to amounts, at least some accumulations are possible. A weak clipper system on Wednesday may also bring some additional lighter snows to northern Vermont and this will be followed by colder temperatures again on Thursday.

Long Range
The southeast ridge shows life again toward the weekend of the 23rd and 24th and will mean a northward push of mild temperatures. I know it doesn't sound thrilling but the warm advection associated with this push may mean some additional snow for Friday and it remains to be seen whether the mild weather will ever gain a foothold in Northern New England during the weekend. Toward the end of the month the ensembles are showing much more in the way of blocking at high latitudes and action in the mid-latitudes but its difficult at to pinpoint exactly when such a trend would translate into actual results for the mountain and it might not be until after the 24th.