And after another in a long lists of February 2008 busts late last week it will be good to focus on the next few days. Hey, I have taken so many different positions on the pattern and some of the storm systems within the pattern that I am worse than a politician. Like every good forecaster though, I can always claim victory since if you say enough different things at enough different times then you are bound to be right about something. I am thinking specifically of another famed forecaster that operates in the private in the sector (who will remain nameless), but proves that it gets worse when meteorologists go corporate on us. In my case, at least I put on the brave face and admit the inherent deficiencies of forecasting. All kidding aside, this has been a somewhat trying year on the weather front and particularly on the long range front. It is also quite a contrast to last year when the season was split in half between the unfavorable start and the favorable finish.
Winter storm bash
Once again, after a somewhat challenging week for MRG, we do a 180 and prepare for an epic week as the pattern amplifies once again only this time the ampflication will have us rock'n in the free world (credit - Neil Young) rather than flooded at the basebox (don't believe there is a song written for that thank god). Flurries could start Monday as the mountain sits just to the south of a sharp arctic boundary situated over Quebec. Some of this cold over the eastern Canadian provinces will play an instrumental roll in this upcoming storm as it will become entrained into the intensifying system during the middle of the week. This exciting looking storm system will make its exit from the southern Rockies Monday and will take a path up the Ohio Valley Tuesday. As opposed to last week, this system will take a more eastward trajectory as the pattern amplification proceeds. The storm will therefore make good use the Atlantic Coast and will deliver a major winter storm to all of interior New England as it continues to intensify northeast of Cape Cod.
The details including the possibility of 3 powder days
I would not be surprised to see a small accumulation of snow early Tuesday but the snow will begin in earnest during the day. Temperatures will not be especially chilly during the ski day and the snow will be of the wet variety at some of the lower elevations. As the evening progresses the snow will intensify and temperatures will begin to cool. The big question concerns the position of the moist conveyor. Although the storm will take a favorable track, MRG is positioned at the southern edge of the zone of heaviest snow and a dry slot is likely to envelop southern areas of the state during the night. This is the biggest uncertainty at this point and if we can assume the "no dry slot" solution then we are in line for an additional foot of powder by dawn on Wednesday. Even a dry slot however won't prevent a powder day on Wednesday. It also won't prevent wrap-around and terrain-enhanced snowfall which will continue through Wednesday into Wednesday night and make for another powder day Thursday. I think it is fair to say that a 3-powder day week is epic and is also quite achievable this week particularly if we can get some accumulating snow early enough in the day Tuesday. As for accumulations this is the preliminary guess.
By Tuesday morning: Around an inch
By Tuesday evening: 2- 4 inches
By Wednesday first tracks: 8-14 inches
By Wednesday evening: 5-10 inches
By Thursday first tracks: 2-4 inches
This makes for a storm total of 18-30 inches.
More snow for the weekend ? You know it !!
We will have some colder weather and wind to deal with late in the ski day Wednesday and into Thursday including well below zero wind chill values. The window of dry weather which will begin later Thursday will be a brief one however as a weaker clipper-like system dives into the Great Lakes Friday. The track of this system is still somewhat up in the air but precipitation-type will remain snow and the only question involves how much between Friday night and Saturday. This will be followed by a quick re-enforcing shot of arctic chill which will dominate through the duration of the weekend.
A few days ago I had mentioned the possibilities of some challenges for early March which results from the re-strengthening of the jet in the Pacific. This remains the case and both milder weather and non-snow/non frozen precipitation are possible early next week. The most consistent thing about this winter has been its inconsistency and the ensembles do show that even the re-strengthening of the jet in the Pacific will be a temporary feature and may give way to something better late in the week.