This has been a rough week for MRG and a rough couple of weeks for the yours truly in terms of getting an handle on some of the madness. I had originally expected much better things from Monday's washout and was very optimistic about the TIS for Tuesday and Wednesday. We did get some but most of the action was to the south as resorts in Pennsylvania and West Virginia picked up several inches. Don't bother getting jealous though, those guys have had it very rough this winter in a region where La Nina is typically very unforgiving. I expect to see a few inches of the fresh stuff blown around the mountain Thursday but it will be a chilly and blustery day with temperatures struggling to reach the teens. We should see some clouds on Friday but the accmulating snow will be confined the the big metros like New York and Boston as the storm system responsible will fail to make any real northward progression. This storm appears as if it will remain a disorganized and broken entity but if one of the two significant pieces becomes more organized it could spread some snow in to northern Vermont even as late as Saturday. My advice though is to keep your expectations low since model guidance seems convinced across the board that this one goes wide right.
The chance for any light snow diminishes as Saturday progresses but it does remain cold with temps in the low 20's. Sunday morning will be quite cold with temperatures below zero in the morning but warming to as high as 30 at the base during the afternoon with minimal winds. A few inches of snow Wednesday night and then an inch or two more Friday or Saturday would do wonders for what appears to be a pleasant weather weekend to be out though that projection is optimistic.
Time to focus on next week and its potential
The weekend cold modifies on Monday and the higher February sun could soften things up a bit Monday afternoon. Arctic cold will remain over central and northern Quebec and there is some serious disagreement on whether or not that gets into the mix during the middle of the week. This is a vital question as it looks like we are in line for another close call from the upcoming pattern amplification on Tuesday/Wednesday. This gets a bit technical but some of the forecast upper air charts look favorable late on Tuesday because they suggest that arctic air could envelop the interior New England prior to the approach of a developing storm system. At face value the medium range models are in their various camps saying many things as far as outcomes go. The consensus of information suggests that the storm, which will crank itself up across the central Plains, will take a less than desirable track but with enough cold air we could turn the argumentative into something very good. Terrain induced snow late Wednesday and Thursday could add to the potential good fortune. There is a long way to go and many bridges to cross before a verdict is reached as always.
Early March ???
What is more discouraging right now is early March. La Nina has been such a nuisance in the Pacific and it looks to be at it again by the first weekend of March. We are seeing a weakening of this pesky jet stream right now and it justifies some serious positive vibes for next week. By the first of the month the energy in the Pacific appears to re-consolidate and thus present more challenges for us going forward. In addition is the Arctic Oscillation. We fought so hard to get this index into the negatory but the expectation now is for the AO to go strongly positive again by late next week. Wish I had better news but it is what it is. Fortunately, the long range has been highly unpredictable this year with weeks with bad appearances turning out good and vice versa.