Think Snow, Tweet Snow !!!

Monday, February 18, 2008

Flooding at the basebox ?? That is quite enough of that !!

Hopefully the staff can pull some heroics and rectify that situation quickly. In the meantime things are looking up as conditions in the lower part of our troposphere destabilize in the cooling air. The weather service has a 40 percent chance of snow showers in the forecast but for Tuesday and Wednesday it will be a question where you are in Vermont's undulating terrain. MRG of course sits in the 1800 to 3800 foot zone in the cross section of Vermont which will prove quite advantageous. Flurries should evolve into heavier snow showers on Tuesday. Subsequent to that will be the arrival of an arctic boundary, a reinforcing shot of arctic cold and more snow showers for Wednesday. It is very difficult to say how much snow the mountain can accumulate in the 48 hours ending Thursday morning but I will venture to say 5-10. Cities like Burlington or St Johnsbury are likely to see less than an inch. The best chance to catch the fresh powder still appears to be Wednesday morning following a likely couple of inches late Tuesday and Tuesday night. Thursday will be the coldest day of the week with temperatures below zero in the morning and struggling to warm to 10 during the afternoon.

So its on to Friday and another forecast challenge as subtropical moisture works itself into the cold airmass. This appears to be a classic overrunning front-runner and one that is capable of treating New England quite well. As for MRG it is a question of track, track and more track. The developing low has been forecast by the models to track anywhere from over the Adirondacks to over southern New Jersey and thus the results are still up for debate. A consensus of indications is for some snow during the day on Friday (a few inches worth anyway) and a potential powder day for Saturday but the range of possibilities includes everything from dry weather on Friday/Friday night to a snow to sleet outcome. We should see below normal temperatures linger on Saturday before readings moderate Sunday .

I am still somewhat encouraged by the early to middle part of next week but it appears as if another major jet amplification will put a big stamp on the Monday to Wednesday time frame. Ultimately, I think that new snow will be the result during the middle part of next week but a more organized system during the early part of the week could be seen as a friend or foe depending on the track it decides to take. Stay tuned on this one because we could see anything from a repeat of this past Monday to a bit tiem powder producer.

No comments: