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Friday, February 29, 2008

More powder for Saturday

Next week however is next week. Saturday is Saturday. The clipper responsible has more moisture at its disposal than most systems of its kind and it will strengthen considerably once it begins interacting with the Atlantic Coast. Precipitation will arrive around 7 or 8 pm Friday evening and will fall at a moderate clip for a good portion of the night. There is no doubt this snow will be powder in character and by first tracks time Saturday I think we have 4-8 inches for our skiing pleasure. Additional light snow Saturday morning is capable of bringing an additional inch or two before snow tapers off and skies clear. The warm late February sun will warm temperatures to near 30 at the base in spite of blustery conditions. Sunday's temps will be similar with less wind. If there is a snow softening, it will only be for a very brief time during the afternoon and only at the base.

Adversity strikes again early next week

Only in New England is it possible to get temperatures in the single numbers followed by rain within 24 hours. There are other regions of the world where this happens but its a regular occurrence in Vermont and is likely again Monday into Tuesday. The early March trouble spot has been documented on the SCWB and it results from the re-energized Pacific which will re-center the snow in the interior west albeit temporarily.

There are two systems in play here. The first takes an awful track deep into Canada although thankfully it lacks moisture and precipitation should be limited to a few showers Tuesday morning. The second system takes direct aim at us and arrives from the Gulf of Moisture with lots of moisture to work with. We desperately need some cold air to get involved though model guidance seems quite cynical on that idea. I think it would be pre-mature to write-off the system completely at this point since we have seen some 11th hour rescue efforts like the one we had in early February. A subsequent update will have the details all ironed out and maybe at that point I will have better news.

Better news for the weekend of the 8th/9th

The teleconnection indices aren't exactly lined up for glory later next week but we will see a western ridge build very quickly which will prove to be enough for a favorable outcome beginning March 6th. The pattern appears most amplified around the time of March 7th and March 8th which corresponds to the time when we have our best chance for more snow either from an organized weather system or instability/TIS. The ridge west/trough east regime appears to be a 4-5 day event which would stretch to March 10th. Without greater support from some of the more underlying fundamentals such as the AO or NAO I would not count on it continuing indefinitely.

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