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Saturday, February 16, 2008

Next shot of powder comes during the middle of next week

Though we came out of Friday quite well off thanks to the squalls associated with the passing arctic boundary. We also came out of Friday quite cold but as us veterans of New England weather already know, cold weather doesn't guarantee you anything as far as getting all snow out of the next weather system. I can in fact remember a storm in the late 90's where temperatures plummated to -30 F in a few places only to rise 65 degrees in less than 36 hours as snow changed to a heartbreaking rain. This is not the kind of New England weather drama that pushes my buttons but we will have to deal with it unfortunately as our President's Day system is set to track from near Corpus Christi Texas to Flint Michigan. The coastal redevelopment of this low pressure center does not appear as it will happen either and as a result, any snow on Sunday evening will change to freezing rain and ultimately rain early Monday morning. Temperatures will climb to as high as 40 during the day Monday and southerly winds will do some damage to the base. Precipitation will then end later Monday and sinking motion in the immediate wake of the storm will probably keep MRG snow-free Monday night.

Wednesday & Thursday have promise
That gets us through the hard part and although Tuesday does not look like a powder day, the white stuff should be in the air by the afternoon. As discussed in the last update, the pattern amplification allows for a pocket of instability which should begin impacting the mountain later Tuesday. The result will be TIS and the snow showers should accumulate to at least a few inches by Wednesday morning. Even more encouraging is the appraoching disturbance or clipper system later Wednesday which could enhance the snow and provide additional accumulations for the mountain by Thursday. So as bad as Monday appears, we still could be in line for back to back powder days on Wednesday and Thursday if everything goes according to my idealogical plan.

Next Weekend and beyond
Along with some fresh powder, Thursday will also bring another reinforcing shot of arctic cold thus making it the coldest day of the week. And as if on cue, another mild push of air will arrive on its heels as a storm system in the plains moves northeast. The track of this next organized system is still somewhat uncertain but it apppears as if some snow can be provided during the day on Friday. The outcome later Friday and into the weekend still needs to be sorted out over the next few days. We could just be optimists and say the weekend has potential but the pattern next weekend will consist of a trough in the western states and a ridge in the east which means we are already facing a stiff headwind. After the weekend, the pattern still appears to take a turn for the much better thanks largely to the indications of several different areas of high latitude blocking and a potential splitting of our pesky Pacific Jet Stream.

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