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Friday, January 29, 2010

Cold but drier forecast for the weekend and upcoming week

We brought winter back in a big way as temperatures plummet to well below zero across much of Vermont, particularly the high country. The forecast for the upcoming week has also trended colder but also appears to be on the drier side which is unfortunate since us Mad River Glen enthusiasts hate wasting cold weather.

The forecast for the weekend is almost entirely unchanged. Saturday will be dry and should feature a good amount of sun to go along with the bone-chilling cold. Winds will remain at a tolerable level so a run through the legendary MRG bumps should generate enough bodily warmth for a cold ride up the single. On Sunday we should see more in the way of clouds as a very pathetic looking clipper system spreads some light snow across the region mainly in the afternoon. I think it is reasonable to expect a fluffy 1-3 inches by Monday morning and this will be followed by more wind and more cold Monday night into Tuesday. The disappointing aspect of today's forecast is the system during the middle of the week which appears to fall apart upon its approach. It didn't have much in the way of moisture to begin with but appeared capable of "fluffing-up" the mountain and this appears somewhat less likely at this point but its still early to count it out completely.

The system next weekend will not have any problems with ascertaining moisture. It will be a product of the southern branch and a re-enforcing shot of cold later in the week should keep enough cold around for an all snow event across the interior northeast. The remaining issue will be the track of this storm which could head out into the ocean as some models already indicate. There is still some good potential here though and the SCWB will stay on top of any changes good or bad.

The headline in our last update indicated that rain should stay away for a while and no reason to stray from that prognostication as of now. Temperatures should moderate substantially beginning next weekend but this mostly stems from the building of a massive block in the jet stream which will extend from the Hudson Bay of Canada east through the Davis Straits and encompassing much of Greenland. This is a positive development since it will be the fuel for another super negative NAO. The slight negative is that the block will extend southward and may be a force for some rather tranquil weather. Weather which should be free of frigid arctic air (the block may actually prevent that) but also free of big storms since most of them could track to our south. It should however mean that the rain will be far away and in my mind the rain can never be far enough away. Enjoy the weekend

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