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Sunday, January 31, 2010

Focus shifts to next weekend...

since the forecast for the next few days will lack any big time powder. We will get flurries and light snow showers through Tuesday that will amount to a few inches or less (if such a category exists). We then have another shot at a few inches later Wednesday into Thursday as the remnants of the mid-week system that I had originally much higher hopes for graces us with a presence that we will hardly be worth noticing. It will remain wintry through the week with temperatures in the teens and 20's during the day and near to below zero at night.

The storm system arriving for the first full weekend of February will be worthy of much discussion and speculation. It most certainly has lots of potential both for us skiers and as a major east coast travel hazard. It has the potential to be a sequel to December 19th which if you recall was a major hit for many coastal cities but a major miss for the interior New England ski areas. This very juicy southern branch feature could also track farther northwest however and thus have a more Valentines Day 2007 appearance. Model data is suggesting more in the way of the former but I am optimistic that the forecast can change in our favor. The position of the upper ridge which has at times this month has been too far east and acted to deflect a would be powder event is further west this time and will do its part to produce a formidable east coast trough. Such a set-up can allow the east coast system in question to become much stronger and a stronger system will track farther north and farther west since such a process negatively tilts the the trough axis. You should expect this event to be downplayed across the north country until some hard evidence indicates the possibility for some big snow. As of now we have very little evidence suggesting such and another update in a few days should shed some more light on the "weather" or the "not" (pun intended).

The longer range update has a stormier and more favorable look to it as of this morning. We can thank the NAO for all of this. We can also thank the continued presence of El Nino although it has weakened somewhat from its peak of 1.9 C above the seasonal norm. The NAO will be fueled by the block discussed in the last update and th weather will be fueled by the southern branch which appears more and more active in each update of the ensembles. It will be a continued challenge to get moisture up past 42 north, especially since so much jet energy will dive under the blocking and out over the open Atlantic thus keeping the storm track farther south. The simple idea that a more continuous string of storms can track from one side of the country to the other will at least provide some potential and it all starts with that.

1 comment:

More Cowbells said...

Why can't the sub-tropical & northern streams seem to get along this year?? I always thought a split-flow pattern was our best friends. Definitely could be blockbuster if they do meet up & go on a date this weekend...cause southern vt is still looking for its recovery snows after last weekend's thaw. Glad to hear northern vt is back skiing though. Thanks as always for your insights Josh.