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Thursday, January 21, 2010

Dry weekend and some rain early next week before improvements begin

We would indeed like to see 20 inches of powder every 2 days (maybe some of us every day) but this weekend will be a time to enjoy the visibility since it will be impressive for a succession of days. The culprit is a dome of high pressure, a Canadian born airmass, that will build across the region Thursday and Friday. This weather feature will reduce the snow shower activity and allow for a few days of sunshine and miles of visibility. The sunshine should last through most of the day Saturday and then some high clouds from an approaching storm system will begin encompassing the region Saturday night and Sunday. With light winds and temperatures approaching the 30 degree mark Saturday and exceeding it Sunday, it should be a very comfortable time to get out and enjoy the slopes.

It has been a bit too long between updates but little has changed regarding our rain threat early next week. It remains very "there" and very ominous looking. Precipitation will probably begin as a bit of ice Sunday night then turn to rain for a time Monday before ending all together later in the day. This will unfortunately be a bit of a "sting" as model data is suggesting upwards of an inch of rain with this feature. Temperatures, if they remain in the 30's will help prevent a apocalyptic melt down but we will nonetheless lose a significant amount of snow.

The good news is that improvements will come fast. There is a healthy pool of instability that should move over the region in the wake of this storm Tuesday. I expect this to help deliver terrain induced powder for much of the day and perhaps a significant amount before Wednesday first tracks. Much colder will then re-assert itself across Vermont by Wednesday before a relatively strong clipper system potentially impacts the region late in the week. This could set the stage for a fantastic weekend but its early. Teleconnection indices going into early February are marginally favorable. The best feature I can latch on to is an Omega block that will develop north of Alaska which will help transport some continuous arctic chill into New England starting late next week and continuing into early February. This feature is relative close to the pole which means that it will not result in a nationwide outbreak of cold like the one in early January, it should however act to prevent additional disasters like this upcoming Monday.


Kristen S. said...

Me sad I cry....accuweather puts it at .52 inches of sleet/freezing rain Monday night, and that's it. Are they way off base? I will make a decision whether to nix my trip on Saturday. I would really hate to not come. Perhaps I could spend a day in Burlington with friends, but damn. I only have 3 days to ski!

Chip said...

I'm a central Vermont XC skier and have recently been introduced to your blog. I just wanted to thank you for your comprehensive and understandable discussions...... your blog will be a frequent stop for my weather inquiries. Do you post to it in the snowless seasons?
Thank you,
chip stone