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Wednesday, January 6, 2010

Dry and very cold weekend ahead followed by moderating temps

Cold weather continues to grip much of the nation but the chill hardly has made a dent in Northern New England where as of this morning the base of the mountain was warmer than Tallahassee, Florida. The sunshine state capital was indeed 18 degrees Wednesday morning and could be as low as 10 this weekend while freezing temperatures could reach the outskirts of Miami. It would be an incredible event for the Gulf Coast and devastating for the citrus crops if the intensity of the cold were to verify. The cold relative to normal continues to be very inverted so that the southern tier of the country is receiving or expecting record cold while New England enjoys very ordinary winter weather.

There is nothing extraordinary in terms of snowfall for the upcoming weekend. The next surge of arctic air is on its way south and heading straight south. There is a clipper system associated with this upcoming surge of cold and it is supported by a vigorous piece of jet energy. Unfortunately, the moisture along with the energy are passing well to our south and will actually lose some steam before moving off the Mid Atlantic coast. We can expect flurries throughout the day Friday with upwards of an inch before it turns sharply colder by Saturday morning but remains mostly dry through the weekend. Be prepared for well below zero wind chills on Saturday. Sunday's temperatures will start chilly but daytime temps will warm through the teens and the day will feature less wind.

The surging PNA has teamed up with the Davis Straits blocking for our latest blast of cold but there are signs of a breakdown or a shutdown I should say to the Arctic Pipeline. The blocking is indicated to remain but will reposition itself across the Hudson Bay as the pattern across the northern latitude Pacific Ocean becomes more energetic. This development has significant ramifications on the weather regionally in terms of the intensity of the cold but with southern stream energy still on the playing field we will need to find some supply of cold to keep precipitation in the form of snow by the time MLK weekend arrives. The El Nino is alive and well and this means that mild outbreaks can strike quick and hard. It does not appear as if temperatures will get exceptionally mild late next week but we will feel the impact of the next storm (as I promised) around this time and will need a bit of cold and a favorable track for a powdery outcome.

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