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Sunday, January 17, 2010

MLK storm to drop a quick 3-6 at MRG...

...and most of this should fall prior to first tracks time Monday. This is a storm that the weather service continues to downplay. There are winter weather advisories out for areas farther south but they are currently suggesting accumulations will be less than an inch across Washington county and less in areas farther north. It is no doubt very close. We will be on the very northern edge of the juicier plume of moisture associated with this quick moving system. The high resolution and short term NAM model and the just released American GFS model both confirm a quick 3-6 however and given what has happened this year it would be a poor bet for the National Weather Service to predict precipitation remaining further south than the consensus of models shows. As mentioned most of the snow should fall just before dawn Monday and snow during the day will be on the lighter side. Snow conditions will be powdery at the upper half of the mountain but could get wet at the base as temperatures hover around the freezing mark during the day.

The balance of the week has been a very tricky one to get a handle on from a forecasting standpoint. The outlook has no doubt improved and includes less in the way of mild air and perhaps some additional snow but the models have been arguing over specifics for 5 days and it is surprising to see these details remain very unclear even as of Sunday morning. I have to give the American GFS model some rare accolades as it has outperformed the European model on a few occasions this year and was first to shift the track of the MLK storm northward. If we are to continue to believe the American Model we can expect flurries to continue into Tuesday and perhaps intensifying into some more significant snow Wednesday as the remnants of a old clipper system dives southeast to the New England coast and intensifies into a more organized weather system. Such a scenario would give us a few inches Wednesday before conditions turn seasonable but very dry heading into the upcoming weekend. The European model has a very different agenda in mind. It continues to hold the cold air up over the Great Lakes and northern New England and allows much milder temperatures to grip the Mid Atlantic states and Ohio Valley. It then allows the first piece of energy to come out of the very unsettled Rocky Mountain west during the middle of the weak and potentially impact the region with snow prior to the weekend. I am hoping this scenario plays out but unfortunately I am very skeptical. There are a lot of mechanisms that will try to keep the action well to our south prior to the upcoming weekend and we will just have to hope that these mechanisms are again defied and some moisture can move up and over us and give the region some additional snow.

A few posts ago I had expressed concern over a rain event and such concern still exists. The most likely period is around the 25th and 26th of the month but the mild weather and any rain should be short lived as the teleconnection indices turn just favorable enough for the return of cold weather. A bigger snow event is then possible very late in the month which should allow conditions to quickly improve.

2 comments:

Nate D said...

Its been nice watching noaa gradually increase their expected snow accumulation. Sounds like south is where the snow is with this storm. Im thinking ill head down to ellen over stowe tomorrow

真的是唷 said...

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