Halleluyah !! This one hurt like a punch to the ribs and if you ever wonder why posts don't come as frequently on the SCWB you can blame the rain. I hate even thinking about it so I don't post. The snow is on its way and should fall in the form of occasional snow showers beginning Tuesday and persisting all the way until Thursday. I had hoped there would be a period of favorable low level forcing to go along with some general instability but we can't have it all I suppose. Over the next 72 hours I would not be surprised to see 5-10 new inches of fluff most of which should fall between Tuesday afternoon and Wednesday morning. The snow should taper off and temperatures will turn much colder late in the day Thursday and we will then be firmly enveloped by some good old fashion New England January chill.
The headline hopefully does not turn into a lie. The 1-2 punch combination of the negative Arctic Oscillation and the weakly negative North Atlantic Oscillation should ensure a gradual improvement in powder prospects as we move into our favorite period at Mad River Glen. The improvements will come fast and furious if we were to get some love from some southern branch energy on Saturday. This system will be associated with the sharp cold front which will have already passed MRG as of late Thursday. A wave will form along this front across the southeast and evolve into a significant area of low pressure as it interacts with the Atlantic Ocean late on Friday. I can probably stop the narrative here and the reader can simply guess the situation - Model data shows this system tracking well to our south and we will have to hope for another 9th inning northward kick. On more than a few occasions this year we have gotten some late game heroics and it will likely take at least another post before we can either right this storm off completely or excitedly welcome some much needed snow. It will otherwise be a cold weekend with temperatures in the teens in the afternoon and below zero readings at night.
The early part of February, or at least the very early part should consist of some new snow from a clipper system (Monday or Tuesday) followed by re-enforcing shot of chill. I then have high hopes that some southern branch energy goes wild late in the week and we can get a significant dump. Interestingly there will be some forces in the jet stream that should aim the storm track a bit farther north as we progress into February. Meanwhile the storminess in the west will continue but shift north as well and this is very much needed as the Winter Games approach. I vaguely remember the '88 games in Calgary, a place I once called home got hit with the spring thaw of a lifetime as temperatures soared to 60 degrees (or beyond 15 C for you Canadians) as they hosted the games. The Olympic curse was broken in Salt Lake City in '02 as they were the only place to record above normal snowfall that winter causing some of us crazier weather geeks to cry "Government Conspiracy !!!". All that aside, I am looking forward to another round of Winter Olympics and would certainly like the Americans to do some representing in hockey though I am skeptical.