Think Snow, Tweet Snow !!!

Sunday, February 14, 2010

1-2 feet of powder over the next few days...

is worth two posts in one day if it breaks the back of the current snow drought. I was a little light on details on the last post since I don't like missing my plane but I will try to make up for it with a second post that includes some accumulation numbers and some timing.

This is a system rich with upper air dynamic support but a weaker on moisture particularly compared to some of the southern branch monsters to hit the Mid-Atlantic in recent weeks. Nonetheless, it will grab some a limited chunk of Atlantic Moisture on its New England approach and track just west of Boston. This was a key shift in the expectations which only occurred within the last 24 hours or so. The shift allows moisture to spill westward to the Green Mountain chain and for snow to begin around daybreak on Tuesday and continue at a steady pace throughout much of the day and into the evening. The American Model has had several consecutive runs now where around a foot of snow would fall Tuesday and Tuesday evening. Other data suggests a bit less. All the data does show lingering moisture in the wake of this storm capable of producing several more inches of snow with the help of any kind of upper air catalyst. This will be interesting to watch because the atmosphere will need a bit of a boost to turn unstable late this week but such a boost could do huge things for the northern half of Vermont, at least over the high country. The headline of the post would be a rather conservative estimate if you catch my drift (no pun intended).

A burst in the PNA index should lead to a few days of more serious New England cold probably sometime next weekend. A burst of cold could lead to another burst of snow or could end a long duration of snow shower activity which could persist for a few days. The general "blocking" in the pattern will largely remain in place however meaning organized systems will have a tendency to track to our south and the rain/snow line will prefer to set up over the Florida/Georgia border as opposed to the Vermont/Mass border like it did with the most recent storm.

Overall this is a major positive development for us and could lead to the epic week for snow we have all been waiting for.

11 comments:

Jason said...

wow..with .14 of qpf..i hope your right i will be there wed/thurs

lisa said...

Do you still believe!

KingM said...

Nope, looks like we got burned.

How did the forecast bust so badly?

Joshua Fox said...

Its hard to bust when the time period in question isn't even a third over yet.

KingM said...

I'm not just talking about this blog. Accuweather said 6-12, downgraded that first to 6-10, then to 3-6, and now we're not even showing up in the "trace" category. They were claiming the snow would reach Northern Vermont by 7:00 AM this morning.

I don't know about the snow showers on the back end, but it's clear that the initial storm died a dry death. It was so wrong that we had blue skies for much of the day.

So it's obviously not just the blog, there was something seriously different from what all the forecasts were showing.

Randy said...

Just curious, why don't predicted rainstorms ever fizzle?

arthendrix said...

I am surprised that the spiraling low didn't churn far enough north to give us our share, and hope that the backside snow showers add up over time instead. I guess the smaller trough north of us was enough to hold it at bay. Maybe the next one will nail us. Looks like that won't be for a few more weeks though.

PowPig said...

I'm going to cry.
This winter is going to get the worst of me...

April said...

Hard hard winter.Find ways to keep yourself warm and merry.Winter brings with itself a lot of despair and bad mood...and depression.

patchwork

Casey said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
Casey said...

come on, just re-word what the weatherman says. Less likely to pump up everyone and look like a.... well you know