Frustrating because we need the snow, frustrating because this storm looks like a beast and frustrating because we seem to be locked into favorable pattern that is yielding dry results. It is similar in many respects to late February of 2003 which saw a cold but dry blocking pattern lock itself across the northeast sending weather systems well to our south. It is very agonizing but it is reality.
It would be a bit early to completely close the book on the weather system Wednesday. Like i mentioned in the last update it will get a huge injection of upper air support from the polar branch of the jet as it moves northeast out of the southern plains Tuesday. This normally would be a sweet situation for us here at MRG but "the block of death" continues to reign supreme on the weather pattern. I have completely underestimated its influence on northern New England so far and I want to be cautious as to not do it again. Normally blocks are good, but this one is centered a bit too far to the south and our jet energy has been forced well to our south and has been unable to turn northward even after some explosive interaction with the relative warmth of the Atlantic Ocean. Models are now suggesting Wednesday's system may suffer a similar fate. It will intensify upon interacting with the Atlantic Ocean and slam the New York city area and southern New England with some big snow. It will struggle to push northward however and will likely track south of Long Island and south of Cape Cod before moving out into the open waters of the Atlantic. This is typically not a optimal track for big northern New England snowfall. The precipitation shield can extend well into Vermont but the heaviest snow stays well to the south of MRG. The track of this storm can still shift north and we need about 100 or so miles to get into some decent snowfall but the trend is not our friend at this point and thus the tone of this update has had a less than positive ring to it.
This "block of death" will nonetheless prevent any rain and will keep temperatures below the freezing mark for about 99 percent of the next two weeks taking us through the presidents day holiday. There are no weather systems on the horizon for next weekend at this time but there are indications of some instability and any weak disturbance could allow for a light accumulation of snow. The next organized system will probably have a chance at impacting the region some time around the 17th or 18th of the month. I know there are lots of folks who head to the hills this week so I will try to keep the updates coming but I myself have a busy week ahead so I will need some understanding.