I have had my share of busts under-predicting snow amounts at MRG although its funny, it somehow goes unnoticed. I think the most important thing is to just get the powder which of course we really haven't done and thus the busting has certainly not gone unnoticed. All that said, "tempers running a little high" remained for the most part in good fun and this audience remains the best audience anyone could blog for. The lack of powder has allowed this snow drought of ours to take on a life of its own and one can't help but to be a little superstitious if it helps kill the MRG snow shield. One would think it would then be wise to declare the week a total loss and regroup. In truth however, there is one more impulse that could be the catalyst for a bit of snow Thursday night into Friday. If by Friday evening we are still measuring a dusting to an inch then it will then be prudent to fess up to what will be a very lousy forecast.
Moving on to the weekend, we should see snow shower activity on Friday (and hopefully it will be lots of activity Friday) subside to flurries on Saturday. We should also see some intervals of sun and given the higher February sun angle this should allow temperatures to reach or get very close to the freezing mark. We should see the existing snow soften as a result by Saturday afternoon and more of the same for Sunday as similar weather conditions prevail.
Next week looks very promising as of now although I am very scared to call it such. We have had a few successive runs of the European model take a storm from the central Rockies, and move it to the Atlantic Coast. The model does show the storm taking the all important turn north and then stalling again somewhere in extreme eastern Quebec. This would be a very encouraging result since not only would the storm deposit some much needed powder across the mountain but the pool of instability associated with its upper air support would sit across the interior northeast allowing for terrain induced snow during the middle of the week. The American GFS model is farther south and is indicating less snow from this system but at the same time does not shut us out. The hypothetical in question would have Monday as a dry and tranquil day, Tuesday powdery and Wednesday and Thursday potentially powdery as well. Lets just be careful for the time being to not get overly optimistic. Snow droughts are funny and this one has certainly proven to have a bit of teflon so the SCWB will respect it until its over.
Looking farther ahead, it appears we will be in for a round of some late season winter chill. I was expecting a blast of cold a bit earlier in the period but we now have some good indications that the cold will be strongest late next week and into the weekend following what we hope to be several days of snow. If you have been watching any of the Olympics, Lyndon State's own and long time weather channel anchor Jim Cantore has illustrated the western ridge quite well with some fancy graphics. Such a ridge is the fuel behind the PNA and allows the pipeline of arctic cold to open and ultimately delivered for much of the eastern United States.
That is it for now. Lets think snow and think about it long and hard !!